Siesta Key Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 We just moved here to Sarasota from the DMV three months ago. Thanks for all the insights here. Hope Euro is right. Keep shifting east please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida. Andrew, Michael and Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, jrips27 said: NHC now explicitly forecasting a major at landfall Thats a lot of surge coming into Fort Myers and Port Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 37 events over 175 years, 11 in the last 50 years. Reckon we all have subjective views on the meaning of frequency and rarity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Is the thinking still Sw to Ne on track where ever it makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 We lost one oak tree and power for a day when Hurricane Hermine passed by on September 2nd, 2016. A couple outer bands packed a decent punch and it was not even that close to us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Prospero said: We lost one oak tree and power for a day when Hurricane Hermine passed by on September 2nd, 2016. A couple outer bands packed a decent punch and it was not even that close to us here. 80 percent of Tallahassee lost power during Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12z GFS trending a smidge back to the left through 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Tick south of 6z at 84, 7mb weakerSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Southern tip of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, Siesta Key said: We just moved here to Sarasota from the DMV three months ago. Thanks for all the insights here. Hope Euro is right. Keep shifting east please. I moved here from the DMV a decade ago. My advice is please don't panic or panic buy. DMV was the worst in weather situations with clearing shelves from stores. Download a hurricane checklist and use that as a guide. Listen to local authorities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: I moved here from the DMV a decade ago. My advice is please don't panic or panic buy. DMV was the worst in weather situations with clearing shelves from stores. Download a hurricane checklist and use that as a guide. Listen to local authorities. I imagine toilet paper will disappear from the shelves by tomorrow night around here... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Gfs is coming in west and stronger so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS west of 6z through 114Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: GFS west of 6z through 114 Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS headed for the Big Bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The ICON is downright terrifying. East across the FL peninsula with a stall over the Atlantic just east of Florida. Then meanders north into the Carolinas (and eventually up the east coast). Does all this while staying a major hurricane. Wild times ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Prospero said: I imagine toilet paper will disappear from the shelves by tomorrow night around here... Always wise to get a jump on prep. I’ve seen enough from the 12z GFS to book a hotel in GA for next week as a contingency. Will most likely not be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Normandy said: The ICON is downright terrifying. East across the FL peninsula with a stall over the Atlantic just east of Florida. Then meanders north into the Carolinas (and eventually up the east coast). Does all this while staying a major hurricane. Wild times ahead. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The GFS is going to weaken significantly after 120 hours with the storm well out over the gulf, crawling along, as shear and dry air come crashing down on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siesta Key Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: I moved here from the DMV a decade ago. My advice is please don't panic or panic buy. DMV was the worst in weather situations with clearing shelves from stores. Download a hurricane checklist and use that as a guide. Listen to local authorities. I'm not of those people Appreciate the advice! Been following Denis Phillips out of Tampa. He seems pretty knowledgeable. May book a hotel inland like Ocala just in case. TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS is going to weaken significantly after 120 hours with the storm well out over the gulf, crawling along as shear and dry air come crashing down on it. Yes looks like it rots in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12Z UKMET a big shift back to the SW vs the 0Z run with it nearly stalling at the 85W longitude 200 miles west of Naples: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 69.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.09.2022 0 14.4N 69.4W 1009 24 0000UTC 24.09.2022 12 15.1N 71.6W 1008 26 1200UTC 24.09.2022 24 15.0N 74.1W 1007 29 0000UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 76.2W 1005 28 1200UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.8N 78.5W 1004 31 0000UTC 26.09.2022 60 17.3N 80.4W 1002 33 1200UTC 26.09.2022 72 19.1N 82.1W 1000 34 0000UTC 27.09.2022 84 21.2N 82.8W 998 40 1200UTC 27.09.2022 96 23.4N 84.1W 997 38 0000UTC 28.09.2022 108 24.5N 85.0W 995 42 1200UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.2N 85.1W 996 44 0000UTC 29.09.2022 132 25.9N 84.9W 996 48 1200UTC 29.09.2022 144 26.1N 84.8W 996 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12z GFS with landfall around 990mb 18z Friday, 9/30 in the Taylor/Dixie/Jefferson county area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET a big shift back to the SW vs the 0Z run with it nearly stalling at the 85W longitude 200 miles west of Naples: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 69.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.09.2022 0 14.4N 69.4W 1009 24 0000UTC 24.09.2022 12 15.1N 71.6W 1008 26 1200UTC 24.09.2022 24 15.0N 74.1W 1007 29 0000UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 76.2W 1005 28 1200UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.8N 78.5W 1004 31 0000UTC 26.09.2022 60 17.3N 80.4W 1002 33 1200UTC 26.09.2022 72 19.1N 82.1W 1000 34 0000UTC 27.09.2022 84 21.2N 82.8W 998 40 1200UTC 27.09.2022 96 23.4N 84.1W 997 38 0000UTC 28.09.2022 108 24.5N 85.0W 995 42 1200UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.2N 85.1W 996 44 0000UTC 29.09.2022 132 25.9N 84.9W 996 48 1200UTC 29.09.2022 144 26.1N 84.8W 996 50 I assume the UKMET and GFS are representing different interactions with the trough vs the Euro and ICON for example ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 HR 174/180 on 12z GFS shows potential for Maddox Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) along coastal South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 That GFS solution lays an atypically long duration S to SW fetch on TB and the coast. Lots of water to deal with even tho it stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 HR 192 on 12z GFS has remnants in NE Georgia about to cross into S. Carolina. Mod/heavy rainfall along Smoky Mts. Precip up to DCA...should be noted there's a large SE fetch on the eastern side of the system which would probably supported the potential for widespread moderate rainfall along Southeast/lower Mid Atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The GFS has landfall in FL right around the same time that the Euro has landfall in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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