NorthHillsWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Eerily similar to forecast tracks and intensity for Charley at about this range. At this time yesterday, I did not expect a TD by morning, some were questioning why this was a cherry. Well, this is what happens when a wave already has a defined surface circulation and shear decreases just a little. I am not sure about intensity yet. I think a moderate hurricane (cat 1-2) is likely for SW Florida. There are a lot of negative factors for intensity: dry west flow/shear, land interaction, length of time over water after Cuba. However the extreme SE GOM and NW Caribbean look extremely conducive for strengthening especially with a developing upper level anticyclone as this passes Jamaica. Track guidance certainly seems to be nearing a much more condensed consensus for LF on the SW Florida peninsula. Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 First visible pictures of the day show all of the robust, deep and cold (near -80C cloud tops) convection east of the exposed LLC. Have to believe new LLC will develop under the deep convection over the next 24 hours. Where this ends up consolidating next 24-36 hours after it exits the shear zone will be a determining factor on eventual track. Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 6Z Tropical models clustering on SW Florida. Some robust intensity forecasts in there. Based on individual tracks from various models the stronger ones are the ones that go over western Cuba / nearer the Yucatan Channel then curve NE toward FL. Weaker ones are the ones that track further east over Cuba with just a short time back over water before impacting SW Florida. Still details to be determined. Do keep in mind Charley exploded in the hours just prior to landfall and TPC was playing "catch up" in real time as Charley was closing in on SW Florida. Charley was not forecast to be that strong 24-36 hours prior to landfall and was also forecast to go in further north up the FL west coast. Charley was also a tight and compact hurricane. Hermine will not be tight and compact...not sprawling but not small and compact. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Definitely Tampa’s first significant threat since Charley We've been in the bulls-eye within 24-48 hours a few times, Irma being a very real scare. We will be paying attention to this one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Models are converging in a way that suggest significant Hurricane effects across Havana Cuba. This would be devastating for the people there as food is already scarce across the country and Havana is of course densely populated. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: 06z GFS with worst case scenario for Tampa. Good thing that won't happen since based on what I read here Tampa can't get hit? It’s not the worst case scenario based on that track. Yes it would be a significant impact and highly disruptive. Trajectory needs to be mid to north Pinellas Country to maximize surge potential. And correct, Tampa will not be hit directly by a major hurricane next week. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The Euro has jumped a good bit back southwest in the nw Caribbean over the last two runs after jumping northeast yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Chasing a hurricane is on my bucket list and my parents live in Punta Gorda FL. If this stays below a strong 2, I am thinking this might be the perfect storm for me to chase and cross this off the list - Just not sure how long I might get stuck down there for... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 That LLC is moving nw away from the deep convection. Earlier it was moving west just behind convection. Seems like it is really getting well removed now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Aircraft has already found two flight level centers. Weaker center WNW of exposed center at edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: That LLC is moving nw away from the deep convection. Earlier it was moving west just behind convection. Seems like it is really getting well removed now. I wouldn't be surprised if this LLC is getting ejected and we'll see a new one form to the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, MANDA said: First visible pictures of the day show all of the robust, deep and cold (near -80C cloud tops) convection east of the exposed LLC. Have to believe new LLC will develop under the deep convection over the next 24 hours. Where this ends up consolidating next 24-36 hours after it exits the shear zone will be a determining factor on eventual track. Stay tuned. Isn’t the convection “west” of the exposed center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Isn’t the convection “west” of the exposed center? Yes. Typo....sorry. For sure convection is WEST of the exposed LLC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Oi... Really gonna be one of those types of storms isn't it...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, ATDoel said: I wouldn't be surprised if this LLC is getting ejected and we'll see a new one form to the west Yeah I'm thinking this exposed one flying nw won't be the main epicenter for getting the storm going. Probably one closer to the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yeah I'm thinking this exposed one flying nw won't be the main epicenter for getting the storm going. Probably one closer to the convection For certain the exposed LLC is not the "one". New one under the convection will be the one that gets the job done over the next 24-36 hours. Going to be another 24-36 hours for entire TD to clear the she shear zone but once it does it will get down to business rather quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The exposed circulation isn't just an Eddy. It's very well defined and my guess is that it eventually goes westward towards the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 NHC now explicitly forecasting a major at landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 That will certainly get some peoples attention in Florida.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 From the 11 AM EDT NHC discussion: The latest NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one, with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the latest model consensus trends. The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: From the 11 AM EDT NHC discussion: The latest NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one, with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the latest model consensus trends. The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida. Huh? That makes no sense. Charley, Michael, Andrew..I think Katrina…shall we go on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida. Is it? Off the top of my head in the last 20 years there were Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma, Michael, and Irma all landfalling as majors in Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, Windspeed said: Thank you. What other planet is that other guy on? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is it? Off the top of my head in the last 20 years there were Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma, Michael, and Irma all landfalling as majors in Florida. He may have meant from the Atlantic side...after Betsy in 65 it seemed majors hitting FL from the Atlantic side became increasingly more infrequent outside of Andrew and 2004 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Huh? That makes no sense. Charley, Michael, Andrew..I think Katrina…shall we go on? Katrina was a C1 on Miami landfallSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: He may have meant from the Atlantic side...after Betsy in 65 it seemed majors hitting FL from the Atlantic side became increasingly more infrequent outside of Andrew and 2004 It's nice to give him the benefit of the doubt but that makes no sense since he specifically said anywhere in Florida, plus this storm is coming from the Gulf side so if that's what he meant it doesn't apply to what we're dealing with here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I mean major hurricane landfalls are indeed rare regardless but Florida does dominate the metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now