Hurricane Ian

[Floydbuster]

6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z GFS is Cat 2/3 into Ft Myers area. Seeming to reach a SW Florida consensus 

Quite a nasty hurricane for Western Florida on this run.

[Amped]

CMC and ICON came west a bit.  Much better model agreement than 12z assuming the EURO doesn't go way east.

[Normandy]

Moving very slowly across FL with a big ridge over head.  Might come back west.

[TPAwx]

Yeah it’s not going to take 30 hours to cross the peninsula.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: 150+ miles further SE track vs 12Z with landfall near Ft Myers at 132 (vs aimed at Big Bend on prior run) and then NE into the peninsula:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N  67.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 23.09.2022    0  13.3N  67.3W     1007            29
    1200UTC 23.09.2022   12  14.2N  69.3W     1009            27
    0000UTC 24.09.2022   24  14.6N  71.1W     1008            26
    1200UTC 24.09.2022   36  14.7N  73.6W     1007            26
    0000UTC 25.09.2022   48  15.1N  75.4W     1005            30
    1200UTC 25.09.2022   60  15.8N  77.4W     1004            32
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   72  17.6N  79.2W     1002            37
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   84  20.2N  81.1W     1000            38
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   96  22.5N  82.3W      996            32
    1200UTC 27.09.2022  108  24.1N  83.2W      994            40
    0000UTC 28.09.2022  120  25.4N  83.0W      992            52
    1200UTC 28.09.2022  132  26.7N  82.9W      993            45
    0000UTC 29.09.2022  144  27.5N  82.0W      996            45

[MattPetrulli]

lol

[TPAwx]

lol

 

[Floydbuster]

[Normandy]

All we can do is wait for the Euro.  God bless the NHC and their forecasters.

[SnoSki14]

I would be surprised if the Euro doesn't correct west a tad. Think the 18z run overdid the east track and most of the eastward models went back west again.

[jjwxman]

The 00z CMC also shows the stall over Florida and then north into the SE US.




.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Really not sure why anyone thought this had a chance of getting anywhere close to Texas lmao. Ensembles even have this going east of Florida now but I think they're over correcting way too east

[MattPetrulli]

00z Euro is gonna be fun on social media tomorrow. 

I don't know if you can tell but that is not OTS btw

[Normandy]

East Coast crusher.  Gonna be a lot of sleepless nights coming up.

[MNstorms]

I can't see this not being officially a storm at 5am EDT. Not sure if I've seen a storm form this quick. I know the east side is pretty clear but the center look intense.

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, MNstorms said:

I can't see this not being officially a storm at 5am EDT. Not sure if I've seen a storm form this quick. I know the east side is pretty clear but the center look intense.

You tend to get pretty rapid genesis over some of the warmest waters in the whole tropical basin. 

[WxWatcher007]

TD 9 coming at 5am per NHC.

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 
km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day 
or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and
northwest by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so, 
followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and 
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches

Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches

Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches

Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with
local maximum up to 6 inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, 
the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[MNstorms]

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Convection this morning has increased primarily to the east of the 
area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central 
Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island. 
The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last 
12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing 
convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center 
to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite 
intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the 
GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system 
have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern 
periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the 
northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt. 
The combination of all these data provide enough justification to 
upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial 
winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve 
Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this 
morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's 
structure and intensity.

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the 
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is 
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west 
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind 
from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug 
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours, 
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over 
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic 
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude, 
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat 
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts 
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western 
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is 
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to 
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located 
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean 
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has 
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and 
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is 
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the 
day 4-5 timeframe. 

Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with
the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective
activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to
25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from
the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant
upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves
westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into
a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for
the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective
activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the
next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows
environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops
under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the
northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with
Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at
day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The
initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a
category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall 
and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of 
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also 
likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming 
days. 

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman
islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for
these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.

3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.
Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the
United States should closely monitor this system, though at this
juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  68.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.4N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.7N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 14.8N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 15.5N  77.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 17.0N  78.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.9N  80.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 22.6N  82.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H  28/0600Z 26.0N  82.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

[WxWatcher007]

Just shy of major status before a FL landfall in this first forecast. I do think this kind of track would produce an eventual east coast threat.

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z Euro is gonna be fun on social media tomorrow. 

I don't know if you can tell but that is not OTS btw

Seems more likely than the stall but it will change several times.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

4 hours ago, jjwxman said:

The 00z CMC also shows the stall over Florida and then north into the SE US.




.

Thanks for posting this, even though it is freaking me out. I am just north of the Caloosahatchee river near the Charlotte/Lee County line about 25 miles inland and we are in what South Florida Water Management District calls the Northern Everglades with seasonal sheetflow flooding. We flood every summer for 3 to 16 1/2 months [with an added wet winter}, and the county keeps allowing development and the filling of the floodplain so instead of the average 18 inches of water found in the Everglades we have had 20-22 inches the past few weeks with all the recent heavy rain and during a major event there can 31-33 inches{can last a week or two or go down a 1/2 inch a day} as there was for TS Ernesto 2006, and Irma. So it will be really interesting and terrifying if this model comes to fruition.

I am still trying to figure out why I moved to Florida when I was 20 something in 1981, thought it would be like Hawaii{Army brat in high school there}, I was mortally wrong, as it more resembles hell in the twilight zone, a more intense version of damnation.

[cptcatz]

06z GFS with worst case scenario for Tampa. Good thing that won't happen since based on what I read here Tampa can't get hit? 

[MJO812]

0z eps

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

I just wanted to thank everyone for all the work they do posting information about all the storms on this forum, as it makes it much easier to monitor what is going on when all the info is in one place. I also appreciate all the storm chasers who show us videos of what we can expect, which is both educational and motivating, it helps one to gauge what they can handle and to get things done in a hurry when preparing for a storm. I would also like to thank the chasers like Josh who help collect important information about these storms. So often the chasers are demeaned but I have learned a lot from the chase posts and videos. To anyone else who may be affected by this storm I wish you the best. Going to go freak out now and start trimming branches, and tying things down.

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z eps

Slight shift west from 12Z EPS.  One more nudge and east coast (north of Florida) threat may be realized.  Realized to at least the point of a heavy rain event.  Intensity overall yet TBD on any treck northward, but no matter there was a nudge west from 12Z EPS.  With system now organizing model guidance should start to hone in on a solution over the next 36-48 hours.  Target area in my mind for landfall is SW Florida up to extreme eastern panhandle.  Door has closed for landfall further west along the AL/MS/LA coast.  Intensity is going to have a lot to do with interaction with digging trof and forward speed.  Also at what point does it interact with Cuba.  Further west track with minimal interaction will make for a stronger system.  Conditions are favorable and water is as warm as it gets over the NW Caribbean.  I do think a slower movement toward a FL landfall is in the cards so I believe it will be coming in off peak but that is by no means a certainty.   Residents along the west coast of FL from the Keys to the eastern panhandle should keep a watchful eye on this. 

[Weather Mike]

30 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

06z GFS with worst case scenario for Tampa. Good thing that won't happen since based on what I read here Tampa can't get hit? 

Yes that's terrible for Tampa. 

Tampa to Naples is my landing zone probability. Hoping for a change because that 06z GFS is terrible for me and others around the greater tampa bay area.

[CIK62]

HMON is at 930mb in 5 days.                 The HWRF is 100 miles further east at this (same latitude) time and somewhat interacting with Florida already---at 950mb.

[Prismshine Productions]

Borderline TS

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk