Amped Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Something tells me that it's not an Invest anymore Shear relaxes starting tomorrow night. Don't expect anything before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Shear relaxes starting tomorrow night. Don't expect anything before then. Shouldn't take much more for a TD as @Superstorm93 just posted, seems like it's very close to being a TD if not already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Here ya go, ya freaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chuck said: My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren. There isn’t a safer place in the world from tropical cyclones. Heck even Antarctica st this point. Whether you credit pirate graves or coral reefs, the Tampa area has a magical vortex that I don’t expect to be penetrated in my lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Shear peaked this afternoon and should be starting to relax (though still around 30kt). Should be around 20-25 by morning. Shear and movement vectors starting to align better. Not surprising we're seeing starting to see some development. Faster development here would result in a left-of-track bias due to vortex tilt "dragging" the low level circulation with it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Even better view 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Even better view 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Nice blow up of convection to the sw of the LLC on IR now. Can see swirl nice on satellite. I think we could see a depression by later tomorrow and if not for sure by Sat and possibly TS by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, Chuck said: He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area We chose the Space Coast for the same reason. There's never been a major to make landfall here, and the last hurricane force winds occurred in 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I feel like these Tampa posts are just taunting mother nature. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: We chose the Space Coast for the same reason. There's never been a major to make landfall here, and the last hurricane force winds occurred in 1979. Francis or Jeanne in 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: Francis or Jeanne in 2004? Nope. https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2019/08/30/mythbuster-hurricane-force-sustained-winds-have-not-struck-brevard-since-1979/2162840001/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Nope. https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2019/08/30/mythbuster-hurricane-force-sustained-winds-have-not-struck-brevard-since-1979/2162840001/ I was in Vero the night Jeanne came ashore after it had turned East then circled back west. No doubt it was 8-9 hours of 75mph+ winds. Learned my lesson not to stay through any storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment. If it is captured by the trough (S. Florida and maybe a second hit OBX or Long Island) I'd think it'd avoid the dry air and be on the upper motion region (and enhanced outflow on the W side of the system) of the trough even before it starts becoming hybrid. S Florida and then up the coast should not weaken other than land interaction, if my simple understanding is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: I was in Vero the night Jeanne came ashore after it had turned East then circled back west. No doubt it was 8-9 hours of 75mph+ winds. Learned my lesson not to stay through any storm. We've got shutters and a whole home generator -- and are a few miles inland in a post-Andrew code block house. We plan to stick around for anything less than a major or potential major (ie high end cat 2 just prior to last possible evac time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Easily a TD. NHC might as well start advisories. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Could make a solid argument for a PTC at this point. It's too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 35 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: We chose the Space Coast for the same reason. There's never been a major to make landfall here, and the last hurricane force winds occurred in 1979. I lived there then. That was David and the eye went over Melbourne as it went right up the coast. Winds were about 80-90 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I've seen enough. PTC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 After clipping western Cuba: The HMON is farther west and weaker after visiting the Yucatan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: After clipping western Cuba: The HMON is farther west and weaker after visiting the Yucatan area. Hate to be that guy, but the 18z has been out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=98L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2022092218&fh=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: After clipping western Cuba: The HMON is farther west and weaker after visiting the Yucatan area. Weaker at 936??? And that model is a little old. Hope it verified anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I feel like these Tampa posts are just taunting mother nature. 14 years ago, almost a week of no electricity took some of the shine off of hurricanes. Big flood 5 years ago killed family members of a parishioner at my church. Van swept away crossing Greens or Halls bayou One survivor. But TPA, because of the apparent forcefield, wishing harm on no one, but I am-ing just a little. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Icon improved a lot. 955mb headed for Everglade City at 132hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, Amped said: Icon improved a lot. 955mb headed for Everglade City at 132hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS caving big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS is digging the troff in the MS valley more and further west this run. Extrapolating it should hit west central FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS folds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Currently in Aruba, can report off and on tropical downpours and I’ve seen the occasional lightning. Light rain now with no wind, the party still goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 00z GFS is Cat 2/3 into Ft Myers area. Seeming to reach a SW Florida consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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