Hurricane Ian

[MANDA]

Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida.  Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall.  Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way.  We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

22 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida.  Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall.  Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way.  We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.

Seen a new estimate today, $63 billion for Florida. Again that’s mostly for damage caused in SW FL and not the flooding damage through central and eastern sections of the state. I’m curious as to the total cost Ian will have inflicted overall. 2 US landfalls with extensive flooding which should put him in the Top-3 for US hurricanes. And there’s Cuba and we still don’t know a lot about his impacts down there yet. Ian has a shot at being one of the costliest Atlantic hurricanes.

[Bubbler86]

49 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida.  Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall.  Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way.  We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.

With the possibility of a major real estate downturn, especially in the ballooned pricing of Florida, there is a chance many of those houses are not rebuilt/fixed in the near term....especially the non insured and ocean facing ones.   During the housing downturn of 2008 the houses on Anna Maria Island were sold for huge discounts.

[Pellice]

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Pellice said:

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

Yea, I think the argument is sort of silly.   Sanibel is getting swamped with any decent Hurricane taking a similar path.  

[GaWx]

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

 My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F

[Normandy]

Yea the UKMET won this storm by miles

[WxSynopsisDavid]

39 minutes ago, Pellice said:

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

And here presents another difficulty no matter what we use: saffir simpson, IKE, severity index, etc. The media is problem #1 here. They misunderstand how hurricanes are rated by the SS and often times only focus on gusts without explaining sustained winds and how they are dangerous. Another issue are all these media outlets incorporating their own rating scales (low, medium, high/minor, moderate, extreme). Often they will create their own tracks/paths for these storms and it either conflicts with what the NHC has and/or they overlay their forecast on top of NHC's cone. The media also does a poor job concerning the cone NHC uses because they don't use it properly and explain to their audience what the cone actually is. Impacts are felt outside the cone and the media makes it seem its the opposite.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

46 minutes ago, Pellice said:

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

And just like Katrina, outside of politics and politicians, the media is at fault here with Ian.

[dan11295]

Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public.

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

5 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public.

 

I remember with Katrina the media paid little mind to MS/AL coastline ahead of Katrina. When we started to see the devastation, of course the media started changing their tone. Just similar mistakes being made here, media only out for the hype/ratings and hone in on major cities without covering all the areas to be impacted. 

[Wild Weather Monger]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida.  Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall.  Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way.  We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.

It would seem the loss of life with Ian in the US will be +- some 1700 fewer souls lost than Katrina.  1836 is Katrina's official death toll. 

[NYC10023]

6 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always

There’s not

My whole family is in Cape Coral so I was watching the local news and reading the local newspaper down there starting last Sunday and was aghast that they decided to have school on Monday. It was like “no big deal, folks… carry on”

[Hoosier]

I almost never communicate with them so I completely forgot that I know an older couple who lives in Estero, FL, which is between Fort Myers and Naples.  They live a couple miles or so from the Gulf and have a little elevation, so they didn't evacuate.  All in all they fared well, but I'm sure there are people who died in that town.  Just depends where you're at.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public.

 

Agree with this. And the sad part to me is that a lot of people actually evacuated from Tampa to Fort Myers. If the message from the beginning had been "no where on the west coast of Florida is safe" I wonder how different the outcome would have been. Obviously I have no clue if a Tampa evacuee lost their life or not. But that doesnt matter to my point. The message should have been "leave the Florida west coast now". 

[Bubbler86]

This may just be a Global roll call but still...lets look at this piece of info bolded and extra category below. 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

NAM Naples 

 

 

0Z 9/25:

Which model above had the storm leaving the Florida coast south of Daytona?  

Nam

(Do not have the Euro that far back but none of the others did except maybe the Euro)

Nam Grade:  B+ 

 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

9 hours ago, Pellice said:

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

They're just looking for any excuse so they don't have to blame themselves. There's pretty much no difference between a 155mph category 4 and a 160mph category 5 hurricane. Plus just knowing the category number isn't always enough information of what you should do or how you should prepare. This is just them refusing to admit their mistakes and the fact they didn't bother to look at information of what this storm was capable of.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, USCG RS said:

I agree. Ian likely hit Cat 5 just prior LF, however, there was nothing at LF - in my opinion- to suggest he was a cat 5 at LF. 

 

It really is splitting hairs though.  I find it ridiculous that 157 mph is considered minimum for Cat 5 when the information is output in 5 mph increments. 111 mph for Cat 3 is even worse.

We should just use multiple of 10s for categories.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Pellice said:

Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings.  But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous.  Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future.

Question is when will people learn the lessons these storms are trying to teach us?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Seen a new estimate today, $63 billion for Florida. Again that’s mostly for damage caused in SW FL and not the flooding damage through central and eastern sections of the state. I’m curious as to the total cost Ian will have inflicted overall. 2 US landfalls with extensive flooding which should put him in the Top-3 for US hurricanes. And there’s Cuba and we still don’t know a lot about his impacts down there yet. Ian has a shot at being one of the costliest Atlantic hurricanes.

It will be over $100 billion

 

[sketcher709]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:56 AM, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

Since the Federal government will probably be paying for these uninsured and under insured properties, they government should simply buy the property and designate it federal seashore not to be built on again as climate issues continue to worsen.

[Clyde]

Quick update from Seminole County, FL. Still without power, a few homes in my neighborhood closest to the creek that runs through our neighborhood have flooded.

Seen some things around town I’ve never seen in my 52 years in Central Florida. Seen 3 cars washed into debris along the Econ river (believe all were rescued), many roads that have never flooded are closed, one washed out. And I know if 4 friends now that lost everything to flooding and we’re rescued by National Guard trucks in the UCF area. I also understand that New Smyrna Beach is much worse.

The main story, understandably, is SWFL, but the damage in central FL is historic.


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[SnoSki14]

With death toll already over 70 I do expect a number between 100-200 total.

Damage probably from 60-80 billion though higher numbers wouldn't shock me. 

[Amped]

In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.

[NYC10023]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

With death toll already over 70 I do expect a number between 100-200 total.

Damage probably from 60-80 billion though higher numbers wouldn't shock me. 

in my opinion, and from what I’m hearing from friends and family down in swfl, that’s a very conservative death toll estimate you’re expecting 

[MattPetrulli]

4 hours ago, Amped said:

In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate.   Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Death Toll now stands at 87: 83 in Florida and 4 in North Carolina

[NYC10023]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate.   Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.

… who didn’t evacuate 

[Clyde]

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

Was thinking about this today. Ike is probably the last hurricane that had such a significant storm surge that took pretty much a worst case scenario path. As bad as Ida, Michael, Laura, and Irma were, they all actually missed more populated areas (imagine Michael into PCB, Irma slightly west up the Gulf coast, or Laura into more populated areas of LA). I do recall with Ike there being rumors of a sign isn’t death toll early on that settled to a lower number. Hopefully that’s the case here as well but I am concerned due to the shift east in the course, age of the population, and what appears to be a large populace that ignored evacuation warnings.

On top of that, I don’t recall storm chasers noting fatalities in any of the hurricanes discussed above. I haven’t sent that myself, is it widespread here? Without power still I’m pretty limited in what I can look up. Anecdotally though, that is concerning.


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