LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 SevereStudios has some pretty good cams again today of surge in SC for anyone interested. Pawleys Island seems to getting the worst of it so far. Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved.Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved. Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair . Here's one: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/jordan.hall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 36 minutes ago, ATDoel said: absolutely incorrect. You can build homes that are essentially surge proof. You sink reinforced concrete piers into the bedrock, raise the first floor above the surge zone, and install break away walls on the ground level. As long as you keep your utilities above the surge zone, even a catastrophic flood would do minimal damage to a house built this way. What you can't do is build a normal slab on grade home and expect it to survive storm surge. Got it, just have a 15 foot concreate raised base on the waterfront which I am sure is allowed by Florida zoning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Parts of Sanibel look like Homestead after Andrew. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Link? https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/index.html#13/26.4579/-82.0780 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Just now, Floydbuster said: Link? I don't have a link, but just some of the video...and also that was a quote from a search and rescue team I saw somewhere on twitter. My guess is that it is older beachfront areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I feel like it's an insult having this be a cane. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Got it, just have a 15 foot concreate raised base on the waterfront which I am sure is allowed by Florida zoning. No, why would you want a 15' raised slab? Build the house on piers, leave the slab on grade. You can install break away walls on the ground floor so the house will "look" fairly normal and you'll even have some usable space down there. Keep all the main parts of the house on the 2nd floor on top of the first floor assembly and you're good to go. Surge comes in, your walls break away around your garage, damage is minimal, house survives. Easy, it just cost a bit more to build this way and you become more limited in your architecture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it's an insult having this be a cane. ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Add Ian to the list of names that will be retired. Lots of I names in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: ? Thinking more in the form of winds. It's fine, whatever. It's more like a high end TS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Nice surge into Myrtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Thinking more in the form of winds. It's fine, whatever. It's more like a high end TS.That’s always been my issue with the way we classify storms. It shouldn’t be based solely on winds. Ian currently has the surge potential of a normal cat 2 based on IKE, this will be a major disaster for SC. I think it makes a run for costliest hurricane of all time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Most mb --> Cat conversion charts I have seen have Ian being 1mb away from being a Cat 2. Understand it is not that simple since Winds are used as the primary determiner but do not think this is a minimal Cat 1 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding. Yeah nobody is talking about the rain for NC and SC, with the modeled track it’s bound to be a flooding hazard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I think we have landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Flooding in pawleys island from the surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I think we have landfall What you see on radar is not the surface center. That is some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 4 hours ago, MANDA said: I agree. Big sprawling ocean storm bumping up against strong high pressure aiding in keeping the winds up. No real change as far as impacts no matter what we call it but nothing tropical about this in my opinion. I think it's a stretch to suggest there are no tropical characteristics remaining whatsoever. If that were the case, I don't think it would weaken over land as quickly as what's being progged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM. Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36": https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding. Honestly maybe as bad as New Orleans, roads are usually impassable during high tide. Right now downtown is completely underwater 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM. Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36": https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge Dr. Knabb just declared landfall on the weather channel, just southwest of McLellansville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 He updated: up to 10.41 MLLW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 They heaviest rainband is basically pivoting right over the city of Charleston. A bit unlucky for them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 If the radar center is the main center, it is making landfall now. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CAE-N0Q-0-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Surprised there isn't a FFW for actual downtown Charleston. There's one for the areas surrounding it, radar estimates and actual reports are borderline FFE material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Dr. Knabb just declared landfall on the weather channel, just southwest of McLellansville Weird. That means that the LLC turned sharply left and moved ~25 mph since 2 hours ago, when it was near the 41004 buoy 50 miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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