Hurricane Ian

[GaWx]

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

[jm1220]

Just now, ATDoel said:

building codes absolutely work.  You can always sink piers deeper and raise the first floor higher if you're trying to keep a building safe from storm surge.  You can always reinforce roofs and walls so they can withstand cat 5 winds.

It just takes more money, but really not THAT much more.  I do firmly believe that any building in a surge prone area should have to be self insured though.

The rebuilt homes there will likely have to be on stilts or have their main living area 9ft or higher above ground level in order to get any kind of flood insurance after this (and FL already has an insurance crisis ongoing). It’s going to be a rough road. I’d say that some of those islands may not be worth rebuilding but given the population boom, I’m sure they all will be. 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Easier to clean up crap that's in one place than scouring the island for it.  Do you want to clean up a pile of leaves that's in one pile, or rake the yard first?

When you have hundreds of houses that are no longer fit for habitation (and thousands of people all wanting their houses rebuilt), that time, money and effort adds up when you have to rake the leaves first.

What if I pulled out the sentimental stuff when I evacuated.

Demolitions cost money. A lot of money. I'd prefer mother nature take the pile of remaining leaves and send it elsewhere. 

I guess if you're going to make any cogent argument, it's that it's better for the environment and people who defy recommendations/mandates to prepare and evacuate. The rest of this sounds like sound bites from a architectural engineering company.

There's some areas you just don't build. That's the engineering answer to this surge prone problem.

[smokeybandit]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What if I pulled out the sentimental stuff when I evacuated.

Demolitions cost money. A lot of money. I'd prefer mother nature take the pile of remaining leaves and send it elsewhere. 

I guess if you're going to make any cogent argument, it's that it's better for the environment and people who defy recommendations/mandates to prepare and evacuate. The rest of this sounds like sound bites from a architectural engineering company.

There's some areas you just don't build. That's the engineering answer to this surge prone problem.

The debate about where not to build is a different one than how to most efficiently do a widespread mass cleanup of debris.

[StantonParkHoya]

This is going to be a much earlier landfall than was forecast

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This is going to be a much earlier landfall than was forecast

Seems that when tropical systems make landfall and are transitioning to extra-tropical, the landfall speeds up a bit.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The debate about where not to build is a different one than how to most efficiently do a widespread mass cleanup of debris.

These building codes aren't being sold on the premise of "it will be easier to clean up your destroyed home".  

That's where we disagree.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems that when tropical systems make landfall and are transitioning to extra-tropical, the landfall speeds up a bit.

It’s being Fujiwara-ed around the upper level disturbance it’s getting near I think. It’s making one last attempt to wrap some convection around the center, but 85mph looks to be the landfall strength. 

[MattPetrulli]

 

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Codes work against wind, not water.

yup. not that hard to grasp. 

[Martytdx]

21 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Easier to clean up crap that's in one place than scouring the island for it.  Do you want to clean up a pile of leaves that's in one pile, or rake the yard first?

When you have hundreds of houses that are no longer fit for habitation (and thousands of people all wanting their houses rebuilt), that time, money and effort adds up when you have to rake the leaves first.

That's the unspoken (mostly) problem with disasters like this - the amount of trash that needs to be disposed of. Clean up creates a TREMENDOUS amount of garbage that has to do somewhere, and often in places without adequate facilities to deal with it. Not to mention the massive amount of garbage that gets pulled back into the sea to be spread out throughout the region. 

And think about it: they're going to be pulling nails and other hazards out of those beaches for years, especially those shallow bays. 

[jm1220]

Georgetown SC high tide is at 1pm. They’re in some trouble I think. 

[Santa Clause]

Georgetown could definitely see some damaging surge.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Do the building codes really work though? I mean, why are people able to build houses in these areas where a strong hurricane can cause your entire house to be engulfed by water?

like look at Punta Gorda. Houses stacked on top of each other on slivers of solid land surrounded by marsh

They work on wind, not so much on water. While it’s devastating to see, most people choose to live near the ocean…they (should) know the risk. And as the population continues to increase in beach front areas, we’ll see more destructive hurricanes play out unfortunately. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Martytdx said:

That's the unspoken (mostly) problem with disasters like this - the amount of trash that needs to be disposed of. Clean up creates a TREMENDOUS amount of garbage that has to do somewhere, and often in places without adequate facilities to deal with it. Not to mention the massive amount of garbage that gets pulled back into the sea to be spread out throughout the region. 

And think about it: they're going to be pulling nails and other hazards out of those beaches for years, especially those shallow bays. 

Yup, this will really take months just to get a basic standard of living back in the devastated areas and years to start to get things back to a new kind of normal. The bridges taken out just themselves will take-6 months to repair? 

[jm1220]

Charleston escaping the storm surge but the rain flooding there will likely be obscene. They might get 10” by the time this band over them subsides? 

[qg_omega]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of. 

1st floor needs to be 10 feet high, that’s the code in Bonita

 

 

[ATDoel]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

yup. not that hard to grasp. 

absolutely incorrect.  You can build homes that are essentially surge proof.  You sink reinforced concrete piers into the bedrock, raise the first floor above the surge zone, and install break away walls on the ground level.  As long as you keep your utilities above the surge zone, even a catastrophic flood would do minimal damage to a house built this way.

 

What you can't do is build a normal slab on grade home and expect it to survive storm surge.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Charleston escaping the storm surge but the rain flooding there will likely be obscene. They might get 10” by the time this band over them subsides? 

Looks Like Mytle Beach will take the brunt of the surge now...

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Parts of Sanibel look like Homestead after Andrew. 

100%. Many insurance companies may be facing insolvency, which - In Florida - means every person's insurance rates (auto, house, etc) are about to skyrocket. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks Like Mytle Beach will take the brunt of the surge now...

Georgetown probably the worst. Both cities are near high tide right now so timing is bad.

[GaWx]

Latest report (11:20 AM) from the 41004 buoy, which is ~65 miles ESE of Charleston at 32.5N, 79.1W, had a SLP down to 29.92"/979 mb with a south wind at only 8 knots:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

[USCG RS]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of. 

 

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Codes work against wind, not water.

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

[Cyg]

19 hours ago, Crocodile23 said:

Speechless

 

 

This video made it to Reddit and someone commented that their brother, girlfriend, and two dogs were in that red house/business during the storm. You can actually see someone open the door near the beginning of the video. Apparently they all survived, but were swept out and clung to palm trees. Here's the post.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

In Long Beach we have hundreds or more homes now that are garages on the first floor and the living area on the 2nd/3rd. The bottom garage floor is mostly concrete. Either that or the home will have to be on stilts, which isn't "pleasing" but either that or it'll be uninsurable. Optimally these barrier islands just wouldn't be rebuilt but we're talking about FL here.

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, Cyg12 said:

This video made it to Reddit and someone commented that their brother, girlfriend, and two dogs were in that red house/business during the storm. You can actually see someone open the door near the beginning of the video. Apparently they all survived, but were swept out and clung to palm trees. Here's the post.

Stories like this are while I am hopeful the death toll won't be too high, many of the people the Lee County Sheriff was thinking about found some way to safety. 

[clskinsfan]

SevereStudios has some pretty good cams again today of surge in SC for anyone interested. Pawleys Island seems to getting the worst of it so far. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

Yeah, I was referring to the newer houses built that are not on stilts. A lot of new construction will be fine against 3s and even 4s if done properly.  But the same home might be surge prone. That's all I meant.

[GoAPPS]

Ian seems to be deviating from the expected N to NW track. It's trajectory looks more WNW at the moment. Looks like it will make landfall near McClellanville, SC, within the hour.

[USCG RS]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I was referring to the newer houses built that are not on stilts. A lot of new construction will be fine against 3s and even 4s if done properly.  But the same home might be surge prone. That's all I meant.

No, I understand, however, the new homes should be placed on stilts. Unfortunately, the architects and homeowners have no desire to and this is where codes need to be more stringent. In fact, I do not even think codes need to be increased. What -I believe- should happen is you should be given the choice: build on stilts OR you can build how you like, however, Insurance Companies do not have to Insure the property (perhaps even the liability) on the structure. Same thing with Flood Insurance.