Weather Mike Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Big shift east with the gefs Change from yesterday as now most major models are targeting Florida from the big bend to the Keys. See if this continues tomorrow and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Western Florida has been very lucky with storm surge. Hurricane Charley 2004 was a 150 mph Cat 4 and the small size limited the storm surge. Hurricane Irma would've had a tremendous surge but hitting Cuba, then the Keys as well as the odd angle it approached the coastline gave many areas a reverse surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 18z Euro is more east than 12z. It might not even hit Florida on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Storm is already starting to cook just N of the ABC islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Normandy said: Storm is already starting to cook just N of the ABC islands. yep, most intense blow up of convection yet on the downshear side of the circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD? Gotta think this is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall Think even if it misses Florida to the east, may be able to provide a threat to OBX northward with building high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, cptcatz said: Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD? Gotta think this is getting there. Indeed. If it were the 90s, without long range modeling, we wouldn’t even be talking about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Think even if it misses Florida to the east, may be able to provide a threat to OBX northward with building high pressure I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD? Gotta think this is getting there. Not me, but I will say this may be the thread that everyone has been waiting for since last year. Maybe it is the thread with the longest wait time between storms that gets our attention even before a name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 One notable for those thinking eastern threat — the runs most east are the quickest (when ridging is to the west), by the time high/heights get overhead and east, storm is out. Thinking most likely is a somewhat weak entry north of Tampa, riding northward along I-95 til an exit near Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 0z tropical models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Little or no shear and water as warm as your bathtub,,,,,,,98L needs to be watched for good reason IMO it is only a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies. It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 This is a northeast storm I can feel it. Piece of the trough gets left back and phases with the storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies. It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage. Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way. Wouldn't bet on it missing the US, but could envision some meltdowns if that occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wouldn't bet on it missing the US, but could envision some meltdowns if that occurs. Ultimately if it missed the US it would probably never have been much of anything regardless...at least as far as most on this forum rate storms...it would probably be a Cat 2 at best when it hit Cuba because if its hooking that quick it would not have been over water in the Caribbean long enough to become a 3 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its fairly rare in these circumstances when the system has not formed yet that any global models outperform the hurricane models or HWRF significantly on track at 4 or 5 days....I'd continue to lean towards something hitting FL north of RSW as of now Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity. They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020. Both those storms took off pretty fast. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Anyone within 100 miles of Tampa shouldn’t be shocked this is gonna maybe hit the OBx r miss Fl completely. Nothing ever comes near Tampa…ever 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Radar out of Curaçao 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is a northeast storm I can feel it. Piece of the trough gets left back and phases with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity. They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020. Both those storms took off pretty fast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Radar out of Curaçao Something tells me that it's not an Invest anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I mean, this looks pretty damn closed just based on derived motion winds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said: Anyone within 100 miles of Tampa shouldn’t be shocked this is gonna maybe hit the OBx r miss Fl completely. Nothing ever comes near Tampa…ever My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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