Hurricane Ian

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe global warming is a good thing? 

https://icyroadsafety.com/fatalitystats.shtml

Some places will see better weather.  Others won't.  I was skeptical, I remember Al Gore, obviously with some climatologist's input, predicting an ice free Artic by 2015 in 2007.

 

That didn't happen.  But three locations inside the Arctic Circle on 3 continents this past Summer recording all time high temps, maybe it isn't happening as quickly some people are predicting, but dismissing it out of hand is probably not the smart move.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

True

 

Clearwater Beach barrier island is the biggest disaster waiting to happen and they got very lucky with Ian. They have built every inch of that barrier island. New homes, condos, hotels, restaurants, etc. Right on the Gulf, on the inlet, on all the waterways and the beach there is very narrow.

[KChuck]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

[Santa Clause]

Eyewall trying to somewhat come back, Ian will not die.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

There’s already an insurance crisis in FL which I won’t get further into but I’m sure this will make much worse. 

I’m not too familiar with the Gulf FL coast, but it’s the same story in SE FL which I’ve visited many times since I have family/friends there. Every time I go it somehow gets more built up, and tons of developments around easily flooded canals/drainage ditches. I think the one thing that’ll finally stop the influx of newcomers is insane cost of living and unavailability of insurance. Basic 1 bedroom apartments are $2000+/month now without the corresponding salaries you’d get in the NE. It’s just insanity. 

[f2tornado]

3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

How are you a red tagger and don’t understand how sea level rise is an existential threat to lots of Florida real estate?

I didn't say that. I even said it's worthy of discussion (implying it's banter thread material). But, attributing one potent hurricane to climate change during a cold ENSO phase without supporting evidence is speculative  junk "talking points" science. 

[ag3]

All hurricanes stall at one point while interacting with a front or waiting for steering current. Most of the time it's not right next to land and usually over the Gulf or Caribbean.

Ian just happened to stall in the worst possible spot possible. Allowed for rapid intensification right before landfall and constant westerly flow for anyone south of the eye.

Very bad luck lately with Michael, Ian and Dorian (for Bahamas).

[Santa Clause]

2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

Bingo.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It isn't just social media, NBC will have their expert, Al Roker, on about every other night.   Often with some simulated radar forecast.  Rain or heatwaves in California, it will make the news. The expected thunderstorms in an area with a SLIGHT RISK, if in the Northeast, makes the nightly news.

 

We don't have enough hurricanes locally to judge, but even a remote possibility of ice or snow will be on the commercials for the local news.  I don't know how many icing or snow events we haven't had, butit several.

[Santa Clause]

Just now, ag3 said:

All hurricanes stall at one point while waiting while interacting with a front or waiting for steering current. Most of the time it's not right nect to land and over the Gulf or Caribbean.

Ian just happened to stall in the worst possible spot possible. Allowed for rapid intensification right before landfall and constant easterly flow for anyone south of the eye.

Very bad luck.

Indeed…and as you said before, it hit an area that is wayyyy overbuilt for it’s circumstances.

[floridapirate]

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

[MattPetrulli]

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Clocked the highest gust so far IMBY - 36 mph @ 12:15.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

 

I didn't see this as much in SC or NC and here on Long Island, it's only in some areas.

Florida was built like a European waterfront, except that in Florida a cat 4 or 5 hurricane can wipe it out in hours.

[laferri2]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Eyewall trying to somewhat come back, Ian will not die.

Just based on how stubborn this storm is, I fully expect Ian to crawl up to a low-end Cat 2 before it makes landfall again.

Or maybe just start doing donuts around Florida. 

[KChuck]

26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more?  It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble.  I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble.  I could be wrong.

I doubt that an ensemble that learns from past biases is valuable anymore when the statisticians are constantly tweaking the models and their biases change

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I didn't see this as much in SC or NC and here on Long Island, it's only in some areas.

Florida was built like a European waterfront, except that in Florida a cat 4 or 5 hurricane can wipe it out in hours.

Yeah you’re right on this, and about Florida having the greatest potential of a catastrophic cane.

[OceanStWx]

Regarding track forecasts, keep in mind too that with northward moving TCs around FL that an east/west miss of 30 miles can result in landfall 100 miles farther away along the north/south oriented coasts. Again, specifically talking landfall location here, not cone forecasts.

[Bubbler86]

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Well, it hasn't hit SC as a Cat 1 yet. Never underestimate dry air and sheer once north of FL.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Thing is the tech is pretty damn astounding at this point. We are at a point in time where Canes can be forecast before they even form. And the track of those unformed canes can be pretty well tracked out days in advance. I dont know how they can do much better than they do now. 

[BxEngine]

29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yeah, where are the admins?

Working. Real jobs. With responsibilities. Not babysitting pathetic arguments on a weather forum. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Well, it hasn't hit SC as a Cat 1 yet. Never underestimate dry air and sheer once north of FL.

Ok, rephrase, come off Florida at all.    It is not a shot at the NHC it is just not easy to forecast stuff like this with accuracy.  The tech did not get it right until a day or two ago. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is the tech is pretty damn astounding at this point. We are at a point in time where Canes can be forecast before they even form. And the track of those unformed canes can be pretty well tracked out days in advance. I dont know how they can do much better than they do now. 

It is great but nothing showed Ian escaping like this so NHC's track was solidly over land after landfall. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

This is a terrible post, mostly in part because of the last sentence. First off, since day 1 the right side of the NHC cone was of the eastern Florida coast. In terms of having Ian go off the coast and hitting SC/NC early on they didn't have that (or anyone) because there was no reason to do so and this was looking well into the longer range on the forecasting side. The range of the cone always indicated this was a possibility. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3 (2pm today). Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

[stockmanjr]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3. Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

Someone on a travel message board insisted to me that the "Smart Money" was following a forecast 192hrs out...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3. Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

Especially in these situations where there is a quite a bit of uncertainty present and you have so many factors which will be an influence.

[GaWx]

The UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston on the 12Z. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:

TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N  80.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 29.09.2022    0  28.4N  80.6W      989            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   12  29.7N  79.4W      984            54
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   24  31.7N  79.0W      975            63
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   36  34.7N  79.2W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   48  36.1N  79.3W     1002            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   60  37.4N  78.8W     1008            21
    1200UTC 02.10.2022   72              CEASED TRACKING

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

This will be rough for SC. Huge area of TS to minimal hurricane winds will move a lot of water. It's more the size of the high wind area vs the strength of the wind that determines the surge. That plus any harbors/rivers to funnel it in which SC especially near Charleston has plenty of.