Hurricane Ian

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

5 bunned by a bunch of dummies, but doesn’t stop this from being correct.

It's 100% correct which is why everyone's so triggered. They don't want to face that reality. 

But my pushback is that storms like this have happened before so any isolated event needs to be looked at carefully and not lumped into a broader narrative.

I think it's honestly more concerning that people continue to build heavily in obvious death trap regions like Cape Coral. How is that crap even legal. 

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

I'd argue that we are seeing a trend toward higher precip amounts in tropical systems.  That doesn't mean it will happen with every storm, but the frequency of absurd rainfall totals seems to be increasing.

[NeffsvilleWx]

43 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.

 

Communicating risk is a huge part of it.

 

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.

 

I'm not saying this to be a smartass -- do you have any hard data or studies to support this? Genuinely curious. My opinion and experience (which doesn't mean a thing) is that the majority of people will react reasonably given they understand the situation they're facing, and the outliers will always do whatever they want, they're effectively unreachable. But I'm absolutely open to challenging and changing that position if warranted.

[Drummer]

at what point does the banter thread come into play around here?

[Akeem the African Dream]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall

[KChuck]

54 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol when you always go worst case scenario, sometimes you’re right.

A la a case of the blind squirrel finds a nut now and then

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Drummer said:

at what point does the banter thread come into play around here?

Yeah, where are the admins?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, floridapirate said:

I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related.  And that is a fair point.

Live near the ocean, it is fair to expect a big storm to possibly destroy your life no matter where you are for the most part.  No different than the people sipping coffee right now living on fault lines on the west coast.   It is playing with fire no matter what.

[NJwx85]

Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? 

These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent.

[forkyfork]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

do you think this didn't contribute to ian's strengthening right before landfall? come on

[mryanwilkes]

3 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall

It was a Cat 3 hurricane at LF. Was previously a Cat 5.

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20140925140913/http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/

[forkyfork]

this totally isn't contributing to stronger storms 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Communicating risk is a huge part of it.

 

 

I'm not saying this to be a smartass -- do you have any hard data or studies to support this? Genuinely curious. My opinion and experience (which doesn't mean a thing) is that the majority of people will react reasonably given they understand the situation they're facing, and the outliers will always do whatever they want, they're effectively unreachable. But I'm absolutely open to challenging and changing that position if warranted.

Well obviously we have never really done that, so no. But think about it. Imagine warning a whole cone with 10s of millions of people needing to evacuate when maybe 10% experience hurricane conditions worthy of evacuating. The congestion on the highways......where are these people going to stay and go to? Who can accommodate such a mass exodus? 

 

And then there is the fall out regarding boy whole cried wolf syndrome.

That is not science at all. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? 

These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent.

The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. 

But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of. 

[Wild Weather Monger]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I am sure it happens. I am not in FL so I have no idea what local news was saying when compared to NHC. But I do know there have been instances locally in my area where there was a breakdown of sorts from Gov Agencies to local agencies and the media and people were 'caught off guard' and blamed NWS for failure to communicate the risks. 

I'm not in Florida either so IDK what the local news was saying.  But having lived in SE Louisiana most of my life, local news and government always trumpeted the worse possible scenario.  So much so that when the big one actually did come, many were shocked at what the real deal can bring.

I think social media plays a part in this too.  How many times have we all rolled our eyes at people posting those 2' snowstorm 5-day model runs on Facebook and such that rarely verifies?  Or the 200mph 3K NAM for a hurricane? 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall

Not to go too far down this rabbit hole but “not tropical” doesn’t make it less severe. The most devastating part of any storm tropical or not is the surge, and “not tropical” Sandy was horrendous on that end as was 1938 and Fiona which just hit Canada. That’s another bias people need to get out of their head. 

[forkyfork]

this shouldn't be allowed

[TPAwx]

WRT to the next significant TC threat to Tampa Bay metro, sure there is a "cry wolf" variable but most people are able to understand imminent threats to life and property and will act accordingly, especially those most exposed or vulnerable.

There is always a slice of the populace, in TB and everywhere, that is skeptical or jaded towards threats from natural forces and will consider it a badge of pride to resist calls to evacuate or even prepare.  And there may be more people not in direct peril that reconsider leaving the next time.

But there won't be a massive contingent of people refusing to evacuate the next time TB is in the cone a few days out from a significant TC.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah…..we aren’t seeing the worst of it. This is going to be like some of the high-end canes in the past. Whereas we don’t see the worst until like the Day 3 range when they start to get to those areas.

Which unfortunately makes a triple digit death toll plausible.  Let's hope it's not multiple hundreds.

[Euripides]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this shouldn't be allowed

This. Just a disaster waiting to happen.

Even a small tsunami will take all of that out.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this shouldn't be allowed

Especially if there is ANY assistance in rebuilding it.   Self insured only. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

I'm not in Florida either so IDK what the local news was saying.  But having lived in SE Louisiana most of my life, local news and government always trumpeted the worse possible scenario.  So much so that when the big one actually did come, many were shocked at what the real deal can bring.

I think social media plays a part in this too.  How many times have we all rolled our eyes at people posting those 2' snowstorm 5-day model runs on Facebook and such that rarely verifies?  Or the 200mph 3K NAM for a hurricane? 

Which was mentioned in the post that set this conversation off. Social media is terrible. Muddies the information and causes distrust elsewhere.

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

In the middle of the banter.

yall will be okay. 

[Tezeta]

22 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Straight out of a talking points memo? A hurricane is weather, just like when someone in Chicago asks about that global warming when it's 20 below. That's weather too. Sea level rise is a worthy discussion, but not here, though I doubt the 2mm/yr rise changed the outcome much here. 

How are you a red tagger and don’t understand how sea level rise is an existential threat to lots of Florida real estate?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. 

But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of. 

Agreed 100%. 

But the peaking before landfall isn’t unheard of but it seems more common especially in the last 10 years. Camille 1969 slammed into the N Gulf as a Cat 5. 

S FL’s population explosion was a catastrophe waiting to happen. And you can make building codes as tough as you want, people will still die when 6-10 feet of water comes charging through the neighborhood. 

The next one is the PBI to MIA stretch. Way overdue for a massive strike and even north of West Palm Beach is becoming overdeveloped. Thankfully that stretch isn’t too surge prone but when so many live just over sea level it doesn’t matter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Maybe global warming is a good thing? Makes hurricane deaths/injuries seem like nothing in comparison

https://icyroadsafety.com/fatalitystats.shtml

[Hailstoned]

47 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

He's absolutely correct. Willful ignorance; distrust of science, lack of critical thinking skills; not learning from the past, etc. etc... This is how you reap the whirlwind...

[mob1]

While it probably doesn't matter in regards to frequency of storms, there are definitely some climate factors that can be directly attributed to stronger storms. An easy one is heavy rainfall and flash flooding, though that's not what's being discussed here. 

 

Either way, people have to use common sense and trust that the NWS/NHC has nothing but their best interests in mind and even if they're not perfect (weather isn't en exact science) you should probably still take their warnings seriously. 

 

If you evacuated and your city/town was mostly or completely spared, just thank the lucky stars and move on. Distrust for government agencies is at an all-time high, and while some of it may be deserved, you don't get to complain if you're told to get out but don't. 

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Agreed 100%. 

But the peaking before landfall isn’t unheard of but it seems more common especially in the last 10 years. Camille 1969 slammed into the N Gulf as a Cat 5. 

S FL’s population explosion was a catastrophe waiting to happen. And you can make building codes as tough as you want, people will still die when 6-10 feet of water comes charging through the neighborhood. 

The next one is the PBI to MIA stretch. Way overdue for a massive strike and even north of West Palm Beach is becoming overdeveloped. Thankfully that stretch isn’t too surge prone but when so many live just over sea level it doesn’t matter. 

 

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

True

[dan11295]

Cape Coral is one area I haven't seen any post storm pics. Sanibel also, but that's been cut off so only going to get aerials of there for now.