Hurricane Ian

[KPITSnow]

32 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

The entire Florida Peninsula was in that cone. 

What’s your point? The angle of approach facilitated that? 

[Drummer]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

Maybe just start with the letter B or C to offset the alphabet lol

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well you are just assuming now, but the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.

It's also a difference between a deterministic forecast (watch/warning) vs. a more probabilistic forecast (past track forecast error/cone).

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

[stockmanjr]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

Disney Character names for FL! What would be better than Hurricane Goofy!

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

Unfortunately, I see what the poster is saying. 

[TPAwx]

Watching idiots on the seawall in St Augustine on TWC as waves and spray crash over them.  JFC.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately, I see what the poster is saying. 

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

[MANDA]

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning.  A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall.  As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone.  Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby.  Increase in organization, good gradient between Ian and high to the north and baroclinic assistance will make for a gusty time of it over the NE FL, GA and SC coasts.  Could be going post tropical around the time it approaches the coast with fronts near by.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

you seemed to have missed the entire point of his post. but go off.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  

He's saying that things are politicized now which aids in people not wanting to leave. 

[gymengineer]

Is the general public relying too much on the NHC since of course it’s not the NHC that actually orders evacuations? Lee County ordered mandatory zone A and B evacuations Monday morning. I just think emergency management should be the primary public facing entity for decision making, not a forecasting agency. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Is the general public relying too much on the NHC since of course it’s not the NHC that actually orders evacuations? Lee County ordered mandatory zone A and B evacuations Monday morning. I just think emergency management should be the primary public facing entity for decision making, not a forecasting agency. 

I doubt the general public is pulling up NHC online to see the cone, etc. They are watching local news to get their information. So if local media doesn't harp on the seriousness of it, it doesn't matter what NHC does. The general public won't know any better. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning.  A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall.  As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone.  Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby.

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

[f2tornado]

19 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

Straight out of a talking points memo? A hurricane is weather, just like when someone in Chicago asks about that global warming when it's 20 below. That's weather too. Sea level rise is a worthy discussion, but not here, though I doubt the 2mm/yr rise changed the outcome much here. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's saying that things are politicized now which aids in people not wanting to leave. 

Whatever?  He’s pushing his agenda, and what he said is exactly the definition of politicizing.

I just don’t agree.  So I said my piece. It’s all good. 

[gymengineer]

Just now, mappy said:

I doubt the general public is pulling up NHC online to see the cone, etc. They are watching local news to get their information. So if local media doesn't harp on the seriousness of it, it doesn't matter what NHC does. The general public won't know any better. 

I would guess so too, but so much of the discussion in the last couple of pages seemed to be around decision making based on the NHC’s forecasted track. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

Agreed.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I would guess so too, but so much of the discussion in the last couple of pages seemed to be around decision making based on the NHC’s forecasted track. 

I get that, and IMO, I thought NHC did fine other than the landfall further north before they adjusted back to south of Tampa. Lee County should have started evacuations over the weekend. 

NHC could have a perfect forecast and spread their message far and wide on social media, but unless local news reports it verbatim, there will be information lost between one agency to another. its a group effort from NHC communication to emergency management, who communicates to mayors/governors, who communicates to the public. A breakdown in any of those handoffs will trickle down to those on the ground who choose to stay behind instead. 

[KChuck]

36 minutes ago, twister4999 said:

Agreed. And perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I don’t believe this was some of their better work. Sure, some of their early forecasts were spot on, but after that there were major shifts. I guess I’m just not tooting their horn as much as others. Did the best they could of course, but yeah this wasn’t what I would call great forecast verification. Their forecasts probably lead to people being put in a rough spot after evacuating south from Tampa ultimately putting themselves in the strike zone. Apologies if this belongs in the banter thread. 

I think that the NHC is between a rock and a hard place forecasting canes coming up the Florida coast. Kind of reminds me of NOAA mets trying to forecast snowstorms coming across the mountains into North Carolina. You never know which way they will bounce kind of like a pin ball machine. There's a big difference between dealing with a snowstorm vs a cat 4-5 hurricane. There were a lot of timing variables with Ian as far as that front coming down from the north not to mention land interactions. And no one, not even the blog experts, forecasted Ian strengthening the way it did once past Cuba. Once that occurred all of the dynamics surrounding Ian changed dramatically putting the NHC into doing their best to save lives and not spread needless fear. Overall, I think that they did a good job with what they had to deal with.  

[Wild Weather Monger]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I doubt the general public is pulling up NHC online to see the cone, etc. They are watching local news to get their information. So if local media doesn't harp on the seriousness of it, it doesn't matter what NHC does. The general public won't know any better. 

IDk.  When have local or nationional news NOT harped on the seriousness of the situation?  One could argue the "boy who called wolf effect" that accompanies so many storms is the culprut. 

[marsman]

23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

 

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

I say we go back to using the Greek Alphabet. If we go over, use AA, AB, AC, etc.

[Santa Clause]

31 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

5 bunned by a bunch of dummies, but doesn’t stop this from being correct.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

IDk.  When have local or nationional news NOT harped on the seriousness of the situation?  One could argue the "boy who called wolf effect" that accompanies so many storms is the culprut. 

I am sure it happens. I am not in FL so I have no idea what local news was saying when compared to NHC. But I do know there have been instances locally in my area where there was a breakdown of sorts from Gov Agencies to local agencies and the media and people were 'caught off guard' and blamed NWS for failure to communicate the risks. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html

Yeah…..we aren’t seeing the worst of it. This is going to be like some of the high-end canes in the past. Whereas we don’t see the worst until like the Day 3 range when they start to get to those areas.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more?  It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble.  I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble.  I could be wrong.

[floridapirate]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related.  And that is a fair point.

[NJwx85]

Ian is now fully back over water, at least in terms of the center. Already some deeper convection starting to fire near the center.

[mappy]

Just now, floridapirate said:

I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related.  And that is a fair point.

climate change wasn't the point at all. distrust in the media was the point.