Prospero Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 I we can stay east of LA/TX this year, maybe it will break a trend that has become annoying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 56 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm pretty sure at least 90% of the board wants a big hit on the Tampa area. Unfortunately for those that marinate in such scenarios, the odds are near zero that it happens, ever. Of course a Cat 1 on the Hurricane Phoenix trajectory would cause billions in damage here, so a big hit doesn’t need to be a high end storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 First time this year at a week out, I'm starting a little prep here in Gulfport, Tampa Bay, FL. We have roofers out next Thursday to do a roof condition report our Home Owners Insurance is demanding. I guess if the roof blows off next week it is covered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east. edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 'Ello poppet... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 'Ello poppet... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk That is some strong shear over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 It does seem like the eastern Gulf is becoming a better possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east. edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough. A lot keep talking about how chilly it's been. Florida must not be participating. 93 with heat index of 105 IMBY. But I looked at temps tonight across the East and was surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Gfs Is coming in further east than 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 GFS coming in east & stronger through 108. Pressure down from 986 to 983 from the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 GFS 18z vs 12z a little east at hr 108. Closer to the tip of Cuba. But 33 MB stronger if I'm reading that right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said: GFS coming in east & stronger through 108. Pressure down from 986 to 983 from the 12z run. That would make more sense but my map says 953 MB at that position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Tracking NNE at 150, 938mb due south of Apalachicola and SSW of TampaSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Headed to the Big Bend of FL at 168 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Spare Tampa Bay, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Looks like the trough digs a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Landfall near or just SE of KTLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Landfall at hr183, Mouth of the Aucilla River988mbSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Spurious vorticity development at hour 48 is the only reason this is not swept NE across SE FL on the GFS. It jumps W and S randomly. Not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Models are pretty consistently predicting notable weakening if this storm gets into the northern gulf and starts sucking in the dry air behind the big trough. The 18z GFS shows the storm really collapsing over the last 36 hours prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models are pretty consistently predicting notable weakening if this storm gets into the northern gulf and starts sucking in the dry air behind the big trough. The 18z GFS shows the storm really collapsing over the last 36 hours prior to landfall. The synoptic configuration modeled in the 48 hours prior to landfall is definitely something more reminiscent of storms in the early 2000s and not recent years. That big longwave trough is gonna deposit a massive dry airmass in its wake that will likely impact the storm greatly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Until the GFS stops this center relocation it can't be considered as a viable solution. What I'm seeing on satellite indicates a sheared but very strong low level cyclonic vorticity signature just ENE of the ABC islands. This will likely tighten overnight as it passes north of the ABC islands, and by tomorrow we should have TCG with a sheared but potent LLC. This likely stays sheared until passing Hispanola, but in no way is it randomly reforming south and west because its being sheared. We just saw this with Fiona. It was badly sheared with a very vigorous and closed LLC as it headed west. the MLC trailed behind until the shear let up, and then the LLC instantly took over and it exploded (LLC did not REFORM east). For 98L, it will be the same exact process. All aboard the Euro train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 The GEFS took a pretty big jump northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida. Any thoughts on East Coast DC-NYC experiencing tropical remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida. Agree. It’s becoming clear the environment behind the trough will be quite hostile in the northern GOM. Anything “left behind” would likely be weakening, possibly significantly, on approach. Something to watch once we get a defined system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Big shift east with the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174 Quite a few of the models have been doing that lately something to really consider in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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