Hurricane Ian

[Clyde]

* significant (sorry, limited to my phone)


.

[RU848789]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:59 PM, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always

Like always?  Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS?  Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic.  Such an ignorant statement. 

[jacindc]

… who didn’t evacuate 

... and live in manufactured homes or mobile homes.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Like always?  Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS?  Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic.  Such an ignorant statement. 

Fantastic? No it has not been fantastic. Matter of opinion I guess, but often after these storms we get stories they report and it an exaggeration of the truth due to the fact they don’t do their homework. There’s already been some things covered/reported on in the wake of Ian that is questionable.

[Hurricane Agnes]

12 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

I watched chasers who were down there during landfall and the one thing that chasers with their dashcams do show, is what the neighborhoods look like, as they go down various streets.   The one significant thing that I noticed with where Ian hit was that in certain locales like Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte you had more "Charley-standard" construction where in other locations like Ft. Meyers Beach and Cape Coral, you basically had mobile home parks and 1 or 2-story wood construction units.  Those were just inundated, with some that literally exploded from the winds and/or were washed off their foundations.  There were a number of pics of clusters of tumbled-over and bunched mobile homes and trailers that were surrounded by and jumbled up with boats that had washed onshore and slammed against them.  And making it worse was that you have a huge river that cuts through Ft. Meyers that just added to the inundation.

And distinctively, if comparing to what happened with Michael land-falling @ Mexico Beach/Port St. Joe, where most if not all of those homes obliterated on those beaches were either luxury condos/vacation homes and/or tourist rentals, the homes in the Ft. Meyers area were actual year-round residential, many including working class support staff for the resorts and tourism in the area.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2022/10/01/hurricane-ian-fort-myers-mobile-home-residents/8141577001/

These mobile parks and little residential streets may be where the heartbreak happens.

[bdgwx]

Let's discuss Ian's intensity just prior to landfall in Florida on 9/28.

At 08:57Z AF301 observed surface winds via dropsonde of 131 kts.

At 10:11Z NOAA2 observed surface winds via dropsonde of 124 kts.

At 10:13Z NOAA2 observed flight level winds of 150 kts.

At 10:13Z NOAA2 observed surface winds via SFMR of 137 kts.

At 10:29Z AF301 observed flight level winds of 135 kts.

At 10:29Z AF301 observed surface winds via SFMR of 137 kts.

[big time gap]

At 17:23Z AF307 observed flight level winds of 131 kts.

At 17:23Z AF307 observed surface winds via SFMR of 121 kts.

In the big time gap between recon flights KTBW was consistently showing 150+ kts between 9000-12000 ft depending on the time of the scan or specific location with isolated bins approaching 170 kts on the western side.

I realize this isn't hard data but HWRF, HMON, and HAFS analyzed Ian at 140, 140, and 150 kts respectively.

What are the odds that Ian strengthened between say 10:30Z and 16:00Z and then began weakening after 16:00Z as it approached land? Did Ian achieve cat 5 status even if only for an hour or two?

Please chime in if I have incorrectly stated any of the observations incorrectly or have additional observations or commentary that might be insightful.

 

 

 

[jconsor]

The remnants of Ian are becoming a hybrid low near the mid-Atlantic coast with a shallow warm core (mainly 850 mb and above).   The interaction between this very slow-moving low and a strong high pressure system over E Canada and the NE US is creating a major, multi-tidal cycle coastal flooding event from northeast NC to southern NJ that will continue into Wed.

 

[Whineminster]

If all that got dealt a Major blow is FMB and Sanibel I'd consider this a win, you don't hear a ton about catastrophic damage in FM itself or Cape Coral

[sojitodd]

21 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

CNN is reporting 100 deaths now in Florida, with 4 more in North Carolina. So it appears to be over the 50-100 mark at this time.

[AnthonyEC]

4 hours ago, Whineminster said:

If all that got dealt a Major blow is FMB and Sanibel I'd consider this a win, you don't hear a ton about catastrophic damage in FM itself or Cape Coral

2 feet of flood waters in a house isn’t as photo worthy for the media 

[GaWx]

On 10/1/2022 at 4:59 PM, GaWx said:

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

 My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
* = goes offshore FL

12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS

12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS

12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB

0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town

12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town

0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town

 Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:

CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A

[NavarreDon]

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
* = goes offshore FL
12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS
12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB
0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town
12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town
0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town

 Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A

Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting.

Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael.


.

[wxeyeNH]

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

I think it was a tough call that was influenced greatly by Irma’s underwhelming storm surge from five years ago. In 2017 that storm turned slightly south hitting Marco Island but largely sparing Fort Myers area.

[sojitodd]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

I have seen that. They don't seem to mention that nobody had this coming in at 155mph either. I sure was shocked when I got up that morning and saw how it had intensified.  An analysis of who died and where they died will help sort some things out.  Maybe some things can be learned and certain groups may need to be targeted more when there is a threat?

[cptcatz]

The problem is the media these days sensationalizes everything and goes nuts when a tropical storm or weak hurricane hits. People then think "oh that's all that happens during a hurricane" not realizing the difference between a cat 1 and cat 4/5 hurricane.  Then when a cat 4/5 is approaching they brush it off. The media is the one playing the boy who cried wolf game. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

 

58 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

I have seen that. They don't seem to mention that nobody had this coming in at 155mph either. I sure was shocked when I got up that morning and saw how it had intensified.  An analysis of who died and where they died will help sort some things out.  Maybe some things can be learned and certain groups may need to be targeted more when there is a threat?

I saw a video compilation of the 'cane that was tweeted out and you can see when the ERC happened (fairly quickly too) and the eye dilated like a ****.

 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

I saw a video compilation of the 'cane that was tweeted out and you can see when the ERC happened (fairly quickly too) and the eye dilated like a ****.

 

For posterity because the ERC was such a huge component to the strength of this storm.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 hours ago, sojitodd said:

CNN is reporting 100 deaths now in Florida, with 4 more in North Carolina. So it appears to be over the 50-100 mark at this time.

At least 1 death in NC was attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning because someone started up their generator inside their house and went to sleep shortly after. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Maybe someone can help validate this claim but I seen various sources say "at least 10,000 missing". That number, along with the death toll, still does not factor in Cuba from my understanding. Also, the Ian wikipedia page has been updated and shows "10,000 missing". Just curious if the number being reported is true.

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Maybe someone can help validate this claim but I seen various sources say "at least 10,000 missing". That number, along with the death toll, still does not factor in Cuba from my understanding. Also, the Ian wikipedia page has been updated and shows "10,000 missing". Just curious if the number being reported is true.

I think it's horsecrap. The same thing with Hurricane Maria in 2017. The National Hurricane Center's official death toll was much lower than the allegedly high death toll some in the media stated which has still never been substantiated. 

 

[DeltaPilot]

Anyone have any good links to damage assessment, videos etc for Ian around Ft Meyers?

[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, twister4999 said:

Lazy post here, but does anyone have the gif link to the NHC’s projected path through the entirety? It’s probably already been posted. TIA

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

[sojitodd]

On 10/3/2022 at 9:06 PM, WxSynopsisDavid said:

At least 1 death in NC was attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning because someone started up their generator inside their house and went to sleep shortly after. 

My brother's English teacher in High School died in a similar way-power was out so she was out in the car getting warm-in the garage with the doors closed. Smh. Blizzard of 78 in Ohio

Per Cnn the death toll is 120 in Florida and 5 in N. Carolina. I wonder what the causes of death were?  And the number missing is always super high for a while in disasters like these. That '10,000 missing'' will come down pretty dramatically after a while longer. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 hours ago, sojitodd said:

My brother's English teacher in High School died in a similar way-power was out so she was out in the car getting warm-in the garage with the doors closed. Smh. Blizzard of 78 in Ohio

Per Cnn the death toll is 120 in Florida and 5 in N. Carolina. I wonder what the causes of death were?  And the number missing is always super high for a while in disasters like these. That '10,000 missing'' will come down pretty dramatically after a while longer. 

From the Washington Post yesterday - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-florida-victims/

 

Quote

Ian is probably Florida’s deadliest hurricane since 1935. Most victims drowned.

By Danielle Paquette and Meryl Kornfield

 

October 5, 2022 at 4:10 p.m. EDT

 

/snip/

Yet Ian already is shaping up to be the deadliest storm to pound Florida since 1935. State authorities have documented 72 deaths thus far — slightly under Hurricane Irma’s toll in 2017, according to the National Hurricane Center. County sheriffs have reported dozens more, pushing the total to at least 103. That makes Ian more fatal than Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

 

Ian’s storm surge has claimed the most lives, according to the Florida Medical Examiners Commission, which is tallying direct and indirect deaths. Slightly more than half of Ian’s victims drowned, the latest data shows, underscoring what experts call a frequently overlooked reality: Water usually kills more people than wind.

 

Storm surge as high as 18 feet blasted through homes, trapping some people inside while sweeping others into brownish rivers. One woman was found tangled below her house in wires. Many of those who drowned were elderly.

 

“I don’t want to scare people, but they need to understand: The leading cause of death is going to be drowning,” said W. Craig Fugate, former head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “Storm surge doesn’t sound inherently deadly unless you understand it.”

 

[nwohweather]

14 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

From the Washington Post yesterday - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-florida-victims/

 

 

This is why guys like Jim Cantore are so important. Too many folks are moving to these hurricane states and do not come close to understanding the violence of major hurricane. I’ve been through enough tornadoes and derechos to know you do not mess with 100+ mph wind

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 hours ago, nwohweather said:

This is why guys like Jim Cantore are so important. Too many folks are moving to these hurricane states and do not come close to understanding the violence of major hurricane. I’ve been through enough tornadoes and derechos to know you do not mess with 100+ mph wind

With Ian's Cat 4, 150+ mph sustained winds at landfall, that would be in the range of a high-end EF2 tornado - but over a much larger area. And just based on some of the drone pics, that's the kind of damage that was observed where landfall occurred and where dwellings and other types of buildings weren't hardened for it.  Add to that the surge, and you get a double-whammy.

[Santa Clause]

They interviewed sanibel mayor and she was pretty unsure of how many were missing and seemed like it was going to take a good while to know numbers.

[Amped]

 

[AChilders]

17 hours ago, Amped said:

 

I spoke with he and Jeff Evans yesterday at a property in Fort Myers Beach.