Bubbler86 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: 80 MPH and 986 at 11 PM. 85 MPH peak forecast now. Also moved the center line of the cone north closer to myrtle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Per the latest NHC advisory and using the IKE calculator Ian has an IKE of 128 TJ. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 53 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Has Ian started the NW turn? I have been wondering the same thing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Per the latest NHC advisory and using the IKE calculator Ian has an IKE of 128 TJ. That’s very impressive, Irma for comparison was 125 TJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, ATDoel said: This is my biggest problem with the way the NHC/MEDIA informs the public on hurricanes. You always hear "forecasted to make landfall at xxxx location at xxxx wind speed". People don't have the patience or understanding to look at the cone or listen to a forecast discussion about possible strengthening beyond the forecast intensity. I would much rather the forecast to be simply to read out the locations within the cone of uncertainty, and to give percentages on possible strength at landfall. If they know they can't predict the exact landfall location and strength at landfall, they need to stop telling people that information like they can. "I would have evacuated but they gave it a 15% chance of being a category 1" "I would have evacuated but they were listing off all the possible locations and I didn't have time for that." The only thing that'll improve forecasts is to better fund the National Weather Service and all other public weather agencies like the NHC. They are so severely under funded it's ridiculous. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 More 70-75 knot SFMRs recorded in the NW quadrant. Organization definitely increasing on radar with an eyewall feature, at least temporarily, developing and becoming more defined on radar. Cold top also firing near the center coinciding with developing eyewall like feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE STRONGER... Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 41 minutes ago, NCWX said: Is it just me or is dry air getting sucked in? Also what’s up with the breaks in the infrared through NC? Is the front tearing it up? To me it looks like Ian is beating it and not the typical other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 That’s very impressive, Irma for comparison was 125 TJTo be fair that calculator isn't doing a complete spatial integration so it is likely over estimating the true IKE possibly by a lot. For point of comparison the same calculator using the Sandy NHC advisory yields 300 TJ if I'm remembering correctly. But yeah it's still very impressive and people should be advised not to scoff at Ian's cat 1 status.Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 29.5N 79.5W 988 58 1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 31.4N 79.2W 984 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 34.5N 79.4W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 35.7N 80.4W 1002 25 0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Dry dewpoints seems to be leading to convection wanning and being weak when it reaches land. Should change through the night, however 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive. Depends on physical size too, Sandy was of a gigantic size. Buried power lines matter too, with power lines underground you'll see shorter outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. I feel like I was lucky to get power back in 25 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 11 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: it wasn't even tropical It doesn't have to be tropical to cause a hell of a lot of damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. Unfortunately parts of Florida is most likely looking at several weeks at least. It will really depend on how terribly the infrastructure took a hit, however, I have a feeling entire Substations are destroyed. Furthermore, I wonder how hard a hit the Fort Meyers Power Plant took. Surge would have been enough to destroy quite a bit of equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Just had a bumpy ride from ATL to RDU landing at 1:09am. The tracker on screen had a 50 mph wind down to 2000ft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Almost no net movement 11PM to 2AM (only ~3 mph) per NHC coordinates wasn't totally unexpected based on the Euro and UKMET as they had very slow movement then. However, they both had it speed up quite a bit from 2AM through 5AM. So, look for an increase in speed to start soon. If it doesn't and the 5AM is near the 2AM position, then we'd know the models are off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Thread on severe inland flooding in central Florida in the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area. That area contains hundreds of small lakes, basically a sitting duck for flooding when heavy rains hit. However, this flooding is clearly historic! A thread of videos and photos of the inland flooding in central FL: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 48 minutes ago, jconsor said: Thread on severe inland flooding in central Florida in the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area. That area contains hundreds of small lakes, basically a sitting duck for flooding when heavy rains hit. However, this flooding is clearly historic! A thread of videos and photos of the inland flooding in central FL: Those images almost remind me of the tragic flooding pics of Harvey in TX around the developments, although so far Ian hasn't reached the obscenely excessive levels of rain that Harvey produced as a cutoff 'caine that just meandered around SE TX sucking in GOM moisture, and depositing it beneath where it traveled. Will have to see how close it does get to that amount of rain though. Ian has slowed a bit from the last update per the 5 am - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Still moving NNE . Convection firing around center last few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Any convection or cold cloud tops are getting absolutely shredded once reaching land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Euro actually sucked with second landfall track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Do hurricane models suffer any deficiency once a system transitions to a hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 This thing is virtually a coastal storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This thing is virtually a coastal storm. Large nor’easter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Still Reminds me a lot of the perfect storm. More Extra tropical, then more sub tropical then more tropical. It was in the “grey” in terms of classification the whole time—shades of everything at once. What’s cool about this, is it’s the closest example of the perfect storm since (in my opinion), except this time we get to see what would have happened if it made a close approach to land and ultimately landfall. Key difference will be that Ian had less time to churn up the Atlantic, so the wave factor won’t be *as* impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Maybe I’m wrong about this but the southeast coast doesn’t see a 980 mb coastal nor’easter though, even in peak baroclincity season… 980 or lower caliber doesn’t materialize until the mid Atlantic and northeast. Might make for greater than expected impacts… Pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Maybe I’m wrong about this but the southeast coast doesn’t see a 980 mb coastal nor’easter though, even in peak baroclincity season… 980 or lower caliber doesn’t materialize until the mid Atlantic and northeast. Might make for greater than expected impacts… Pretty cool. Yes, but the southeast coast encounters high category hurricanes, whereas the mid Atlantic and northeast do not. I think they’ll handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3-6” of rain forecasted here and winds to 55mph on ridge tops. Not too shabby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Also landfall looks to be closer to low tide which will mitigate surge some (which is the primary concern for the SE coast with this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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