Hurricane Ian

[NorthArlington101]

I’ve got family in a large condo complex on Myrtle Beach - they are way high enough. Expecting some good storm videos!

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Very interesting satellite view right now.  The LL circulation is going ESE.  Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center.  This will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out.

Saw this too. Does not appear the LLC is moving with a northerly component at all on radar. Very weird

[Mowfishin]

I'm in McClellanville with a house on ground level on the creek. Certainly a little concerned at this point

[Mowfishin]

Based on current movement what are the chances this gets pushed out and never really come ashore?

[Amped]

Not looking tropical anymore.  I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Recon will report back whether it is warm core or not.  Time sensitive, what looks like a cold front approaching the center on vis satellite probably is te cold front approaching the core per a quick glance at SPC meso analysis.  I assume the warm core could occlude, and be warm core at flight level for a while.

[BlunderStorm]

Is there any appreciable possibility of partial regeneration in the southern half of the storm? Or will interaction with the cold front/dry air/mid-lat shear dash that?

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Mowfishin said:

Based on current movement what are the chances this gets pushed out and never really come ashore?

Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed 

What do you think for up here this weekend? Models def beefing up rain totals and some gusty winds aren’t to far off shore 

[Jtm12180]

31 minutes ago, Mowfishin said:

I'm in McClellanville with a house on ground level on the creek. Certainly a little concerned at this point

Did you live there in ‘89?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

[Mowfishin]

5 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

Did you live there in ‘89?

I was not. House was. Had water up 6' or so on the walls best I can tell from renovations I have been doing. With the recorded surge then, I'm not sure how it didn't cover the house. 

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

And in between the two gets you to model consensus ne of Charleston 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

See my post above, NHC calling it a hybrid, non-classical hurricane -- language I've never seen them use before

Pretty much a hurricane strength sub tropical storm, reminds me of hurricane noel in 2007

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Noel

[Damage In Tolland]

In your wildest imagination, you’d never believe this possible 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Not looking tropical anymore.  I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date.

 

And we got that high to the north, too bad it’s September and not January 

[HKY_WX]

Pre Ian sunset 

[GaWx]

18Z UKMET didn't change from the 12Z and is still just S of Myrtle Beach for SC landfall.

[MattPetrulli]

65 knot SFMR, which confirms NHC's upgrade to a hurricane earlier

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

65 knot SFMR, which confirms NHC's upgrade to a hurricane earlier

Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one 

 

75 knot SFMR too. That was found to the NW of the center so curious what's in that intense northern band.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s looks pretty awful on IR

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

75 knot SFMR too. That was found to the NW of the center so curious what's in that intense northern band.

And not just the 74/75 knot peak. That’s 10 separate SMFR readings at hurricane force. 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And not just the 74/75 knot peak. That’s 10 separate SMFR readings at hurricane force. 

Rather large area of hurricane force winds, NHC nailed the pressure at least it seems

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn.

Here is my verification write up for those interested:

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results

Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless

Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved:

 

 

 

 

Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night:

 

 

Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call:

 

"Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool

The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.

Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":

Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance

Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...

 

European Ensemble Suite

There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.

 

GFS Ensemble Suite:

A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.

 

Canadian Ensemble Suite:

With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.

Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.

Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential."

While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly  intense enough.

 

Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired

The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike.

 

 

But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast.

 

"The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out.

 

 

Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall.

 

 

 

 

FINAL GRADE: C

[cheese007]

 

 

[Santa Clause]

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

 

 

Great work lol. Yikes.

[MattPetrulli]

NHC keeps it at 65 knots at 8 PM, assuming it's because of flight level winds not higher than the SFMRs.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Great work lol. Yikes.

Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting. 

[Santa Clause]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting. 

Yup lol