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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Very interesting satellite view right now.  The LL circulation is going ESE.  Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center.  This will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out.

Saw this too. Does not appear the LLC is moving with a northerly component at all on radar. Very weird

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Recon will report back whether it is warm core or not.  Time sensitive, what looks like a cold front approaching the center on vis satellite probably is te cold front approaching the core per a quick glance at SPC meso analysis.  I assume the warm core could occlude, and be warm core at flight level for a while.

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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

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10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

And in between the two gets you to model consensus ne of Charleston 

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Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn.

Here is my verification write up for those interested:

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results

Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless

Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved:
 
AVvXsEhjMSDmipwEus4un361I2cdj2moUBitOrH8
 
AVvXsEiPfAK5etLGMwkDrK0eUuUaLpXzTugul5JA
 
AVvXsEj2-TyVuOccjrXUxzuUv--iY2yaRxQZ34PS

 
Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night:
 
AVvXsEiI8oQCOcZ7XTtkgm9NMnNb6IOOcOz7ooS9

 
Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call:
 
"Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool
The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
AVvXsEi4A3MmwFpV3RzS_UC8uoWyGtz1SNfFA6tV

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.
AVvXsEjoE60wb-wLf0gFvHrT5JEV4sWTo0UIktgm

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.
Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":
Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance
Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...
AVvXsEi-kLfO90KHwsd2qMsHQ9D7yMz0d5eHVFgT

 
European Ensemble Suite
There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.
AVvXsEi5gPknE-i--cOlrDKXT0tUBZnreoA2JUfE

 
GFS Ensemble Suite:
A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.
AVvXsEhkfdBnAbC9_OoMZ2qLi9jpAowothEne1b9

 
Canadian Ensemble Suite:
AVvXsEgb0SWWeFV5mGgmOkPTjRuIVluYy_Wi5skl
With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.
Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.
AVvXsEhsTb1JqSernj1QQDLl4SYc0pq_k_qSFJaV
Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential."
While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly  intense enough.
 

Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired

The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike.
 
AVvXsEjzFIk2enX3AgCzC4LC0ctDM-T2jrHFT1HO

 
But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico.
 
 
AVvXsEjRFXFh9USFlNfzmYnLmg_26lFXTjSGrTm6

The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast.
 
"The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out.
 
AVvXsEiCXdAbxp1JN3OQ6ZVyKmBxBaH2Wx1Pk00s
AVvXsEh8IztnVWtq4E-jNt4q_b-uIl9f05NND95W
 
Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall.
 
AVvXsEjOmZHitESxWHIHx4VbDT-cEB1XMd7qV2_a
 
AVvXsEiSOg0K89NypxyHQax2ECOAd4fDbJCpU1oT

 
 

FINAL GRADE: C

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