Hurricane Ian

[JQPublic]

12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

With a broader wind field and a sharper angle of approach to the coast, the exact landfall point is easier to estimate, and less important, with the expanded windfield.

Does that impact rain?

[Crocodile23]

Speechless

 

 

[Clyde]

Just when I thought I was making it through unscathed this happened, then another tree smashed our power pole, leaving us with no power or water. Already lost septic due the standing water so for my first hurricane ever (been through 9), appears we’ll have to relocate.

Of course, the water at the entrance to our neighborhood is standing over the road and the power lines snapped and landed in it so not sure that’s the right move either…

And still I am one of the very lucky ones compared to what I’m finding out from friends even here in the Orlando area.


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[NavarreDon]

Wind field of Ian is absolutely massive

That’s amazing!!! From Martin County in SE FL up into the fringes of SE NC. One of the more massive fields I’ve seen.


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[Paleocene]

The NYT just posted this graphic, not sure if it's paywalled, but it's good: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-flooding-fort-myers-florida.html

 

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 minutes ago, JQPublic said:

Does that impact rain?

Lot of rain and it doesn't look like a 50 mile shift in track would do much.

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Clyde said:

Just when I thought I was making it through unscathed this happened, then another tree smashed our power pole, leaving us with no power or water. Already lost septic due the standing water so for my first hurricane ever (been through 9), appears we’ll have to relocate.

Of course, the water at the entrance to our neighborhood is standing over the road and the power lines snapped and landed in it so not sure that’s the right move either…

And still I am one of the very lucky ones compared to what I’m finding out from friends even here in the Orlando area.


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Emergency Manager POV 

Stay put until you are sure you can safely travel to your destination. 

Power lines can easily be renergized by improperly hooked up generators and may even still be live in some cases. 

Standing water may not only be at the entrance to your neighborhood. Likewise, water can be energized. Having served in many a disaster zone, you realize standing water harbors many nasty things, including electricity. Likewise, metal guard rails can be energized many miles away (over 20+ if memory serves correct) from the downed power line. 

EMS/Fire/LE is likely overwhelmed right now and you do not want to be another one needing help as it may take quite some time. 

As long as your location is safe, I would ride out inconvenience until you are sure the path to another location is safe to travel. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

 I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then.

 Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W? 

[Nibor]

Pretty neat seeing the echoes perfectly conform to the shoreline.

[dan11295]

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29
Location: 29.3°N 79.9°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

[RamblinRed]

Really good article from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/ians-rampage-across-florida-leaves-a-trail-of-ruin/

Dry air on the south side of Ian’s circulation limited the amount of rain that fell to the right side of its track, but the hurricane’s intensity, large size, and relatively slow forward speed (30% slower than average) allowed it to dump prodigious amounts of rain along the left side of the track.

Thirteen river gauges were at major flood stage on Thursday afternoon, and four rivers or creeks were at their highest flood stages on record. A CoCoRaHS site near New Smyrna Beach recorded an astounding 28.60 inches of rain in 27 hours.

The storm surge at the Fort Myers tide gauge brought a water level that peaked at 7.25 feet Wednesday, smashing the previous record of 3.41 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) set in Tropical Storm Keith (November 23, 1988).

Before the tide gauge at Naples went out of service during the storm around 1 p.m. Wednesday, it recorded a peak water level above MHHW of 6.18 feet, far above the record since 1965 of 4.02 feet set in Hurricane Irma (September 10, 2017).

As of 3 p.m. EDT on Thursday, September 29, Ian had knocked out power to over 2.6 million customers in Florida – approximately 24% of the state’s customers – according to poweroutage.us. In coastal Georgia, Ian’s winds were already beginning to topple trees and power lines on Thursday afternoon, with 8,000 customers without power at 3 p.m. EDT.

Ian will also be interacting with a broad frontal zone across the Southeast, so it could take on more characteristics of a midlatitude storm over time. The frontal zone will help increase onshore winds ahead of Ian, boosting its storm surge potential, as will the effect of the seasonal king tides.

Ian no longer has an eyewall with a focused extreme wind maximum, so the exact location of landfall will not be a critical factor determining damage. 

The National Weather Service tidal gauge forecast at Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, is predicting a crest of 10.9 feet with the midday-Friday high tide. This would be the third highest crest on record, topped only by 12.56 feet from Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and 12.24 feet from Irma in 2017. At the forecast peak, Tybee Island would experience widespread significant flooding and would be cut off from the mainland.

In South Carolina, Charleston Harbor is predicted to see a crest of 8.7 feet with the midday Friday high tide, which would rank among the ten highest crests on record there. The predicted crest of 8.9 feet at Myrtle Beach would be that location’s fifth highest on record – far below the 16 feet recorded during Hurricane Hugo in 1989, but still enough to produce widespread street flooding.

[StantonParkHoya]

Good article, and same point made by several NWS discussions and NHC, the eye location and landfall are really secondary focuses given the diffused nature of the wind. 50 miles doesn't make much difference from a wind perspective either way, more of a surge potential determining factor.

Also of note -- NHC calls this a hybrid system, and a non-classical hurricane.

[mappy]

53 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said:

Speechless

 

 

Not sure how high the camera is, 6-8 feet I’m sure. St James City, Captiva, Sanibel are all at or below 7’ elevation. Entire islands washed over. Oy.

[olafminesaw]

Not exactly your classic hurricane structure...

[StantonParkHoya]

Big ol' nor'easter right there

[a5ehren]

Charleston floods in a strong summer storm. A 6ft surge would be a huge problem in the Old City.

[ATDoel]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not exactly your classic hurricane structure...

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point?  Definitely looks extratropical.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point?  Definitely looks extratropical.

See my post above, NHC calling it a hybrid, non-classical hurricane -- language I've never seen them use before

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point?  Definitely looks extratropical.

Back to Cat 1 as of 5pm

 

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point?  Definitely looks extratropical.

Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. 

Correct, the hybrid definition fits since it's also entangled in the trough and lacks a core. 

I do think if it had a couple days it might try to rebuild a core. It will try though hence the models intensifying it before landfall. 

[ATDoel]

6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. 

what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core?  I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Sandy had warm core at landfall, it was still hybrid and some station, I can't remember which, reported a sustained 64 knots in Suffolk County before NHC downgraded it and stopped advisories.

 

The whole Sandy thing is why NHC was issuing advisories on Fiona through Canadian landfall.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core?  I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at?

There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer.

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer.

Took some digging but finally found it. Seems to be an asymmetric warm core for now

[Eskimo Joe]

^yes that. Got a link?

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^yes that. Got a link?

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[olafminesaw]

Recon is on its way, should be rather fascinating from a scientific perspective 

[MattPetrulli]

The overall Carolina threat as a whole going under the radar, obviously we know why. That being said, this may not be the run of the mill category 1 for SC/NC. Large size could inflict significant wind damage/surge in some areas

 

[wxeyeNH]

Very interesting satellite view right now.  The LL circulation is going ESE.  Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center.  This will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out.