Hurricane Ian

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, mappy said:

I too will be impacted by its remnants this weekend, but you don't see me asking for information about that here. I go to my subforum. You should do that. 

Forgive me for querying "Wonder what Ian will be up to this weekend", logically finding "Tropical Headquarters --> Hurricane Ian" and hoping it might be the place

[mappy]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Forgive me for querying "Wonder what Ian will be up to this weekend", logically finding "Tropical Headquarters --> Hurricane Ian" and hoping it might be the place

And its still being discussed. Just scroll by the posts that dont interest you and youll be okay. Promise  

[olafminesaw]

Looks like a recon plane is scheduled to head out at 7:30

[laferri2]

I vote we rename this thread the "StantonParkHoya Tropical Update Thread", and every post must be about predicted impacts to his zip code. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Forgive me for querying "Wonder what Ian will be up to this weekend", logically finding "Tropical Headquarters --> Hurricane Ian" and hoping it might be the place

873 posts and a 5 year old account make me doubt that this was the process you used to find this thread.

No one... I mean absolutely no one... should be using social media to make decisions. We have an entire agency devoted to providing that information. This place is for the average person to discuss the weather, it's impacts, and related topics. It so happens that a few mets have nothing better to do with their time and like to join in, too. It gets off topic at times. Cope. No one is forcing you to be here.

 

Imagine complaining about "dirtying" up a thread while.... being guilty of the same. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive.

It had the pressure of a Cat 3, huge overall size and the funneling effect of NY Harbor and back bays to channel in the surge. The winds weren’t Cat 3 level but the same energy was just spread over a larger area. The surge was devastating for millions of people. Actual Hurricane Gloria made landfall in my town and was nowhere near as bad, as well as actual borderline TS/Hurricane Irene. 

Again there’s no magic delineator between “non-tropical” and “tropical” that defines how dangerous a storm is. It’s why so many changes were made to the NHC products after Sandy. My hometown on a barrier island had scores of people that stayed because they heard “Sandy won’t even be a hurricane” when it gets here. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive.

Sandy was about as extreme as you will ever get up this way. Numerous gusts over 90mph for many hours. A true tropical major couldn’t survive up this way.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sandy was about as extreme as you will ever get up this way. Numerous gusts over 90mph for many hours. A true tropical major couldn’t survive up this way.

Locally we had hours of 50-60 mph gust before the 80-90 mph gusts came in-the former certainly weakened many limbs and trees, the bigger gusts finished them off.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Sandy was about as extreme as you will ever get up this way. Numerous gusts over 90mph for many hours. A true tropical major couldn’t survive up this way.

I'm not saying Sandy wasn't a very impactful storm BUT I still believe a CAT 3 or higher in SNE would cause even worse devastation. The original post was about some individuals in the SNE  subforum who want/wish for a Cat 3 or higher to hit SNE. 

[A-L-E-K]

getting big canes is the only cool thing about florida, u sandy nerds just gotta let em have it

[NeffsvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Believe me, no one is using this thread full of nut-jobs to make decisions. It's really more for ease of aggregation of information (ie. models, met commentary, etc.) in one place. I really don't care what Bob Smith in Philly thinks is going to occur.

 

Ah, forgive me, Lord Stanton.

While I fear it may be too late for me, I pray that you take mercy on my family for disrupting your personal aggregation of information.

 

GMAFB and get over yourself.  Make a folder of links in your browser like the rest of us. Or, better yet, get off AmWx, learn some html, and put your own site together. It isn't difficult. Also, I'd caution against using social media met hurricane commentary from a broadcast met in Bumfuck, Alaska for anything other than entertainment (No offense meant to any mets, here. Just, being a met != being a tropical expert )

[Great Snow 1717]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Maybe but alot of CT/RI/MA is densely wooded...

Just think back to the tree damage from the storm in March 2018.  

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Believe me, no one is using this thread full of nut-jobs to make decisions. It's really more for ease of aggregation of information (ie. models, met commentary, etc.) in one place. I really don't care what Bob Smith in Philly thinks is going to occur.

[laferri2]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

getting big canes is the only cool thing about florida, u sandy nerds just gotta let em have it

Give it 20 years and Florida will have hurricanes and unlivable wet bulb temperatures!

[Rjay]

Enough.   Back to this storm.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Submitted a LSR for the 50+ gusts earlier. Looks like Ian's about wraped up for those of us south of the Cape. Definitely going to break personal wind run record today.

[MattPetrulli]

According to best track, Ian is back at hurricane status

[NavarreDon]

Amazing wind across the Deep South with Ian & pressure gradients.




.

[WxWatcher007]

I really like the briefings that some of these WFOs do. Good information here and at the link.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Amazing wind across the Deep South with Ian & pressure gradients.




.

How much does the pressure difference add to the power of the storm? So I gather that's what a "baroclinic zone" is?

Hard for me to quantify just how large that effect would be in this situation for example. Does the NHC factor that into the wind rating for Ian, or is it just sort of an additional influence that adds some additional power to the perceived surface winds?

 

Thanks to anyone, trying to wrap my head around this though I understand how a pressure gradient generates wind.

[NJwx85]

Almost looks like center is trying to reform further Norrh on IR loop under deep convection.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

22 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

How much does the pressure difference add to the power of the storm? So I gather that's what a "baroclinic zone" is?

Hard for me to quantify just how large that effect would be in this situation for example. Does the NHC factor that into the wind rating for Ian, or is it just sort of an additional influence that adds some additional power to the perceived surface winds?

 

Thanks to anyone, trying to wrap my head around this though I understand how a pressure gradient generates wind.

Tropical lows, hybrid lows and polar lows all will produce higher wind if there is tighter pressure gradient.  Alicia almost 30 years ago had 1014 mb pressure when named, it was in an area of abnormally high pressure.  The gradient between a strong cold ridge in the NE and a developing NE-ster is why the winds are so high to the N and W of the cyclone.

[MattPetrulli]

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

[WxWatcher007]

 

12z EPS

18z spaghetti 

[StantonParkHoya]

Charleston to Georgetown, SC. We won't know exact landfall until showtime.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

There have been a few runs/progs that showed a southern NC landfall. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wind field of Ian is absolutely massive

[laferri2]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

The UKMET track swinging it south and probably back around to Florida is interesting, in a slapstick "Coyote getting repeatedly hit by boulders while chasing Roadrunner" kind of way. 

 

A cursory glance through historical track records seems to indicate that has never occurred, so it seems unlikely. Hopefully it follows the set of tracks that show it landfalling and then shooting into the Atlantic. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

With a broader wind field and a sharper angle of approach to the coast, the exact landfall point is easier to estimate, and less important, with the expanded windfield.