Hurricane Ian

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

Well if I misunderstood misinterpreted his post…I apologize for that. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Well…..there’s a likely 20 that can be added to the death toll

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a terrible post, mostly in part because of the last sentence. First off, since day 1 the right side of the NHC cone was of the eastern Florida coast. In terms of having Ian go off the coast and hitting SC/NC early on they didn't have that (or anyone) because there was no reason to do so and this was looking well into the longer range on the forecasting side. The range of the cone always indicated this was a possibility. 

I was looking at the NHC track just two days ago, not the cone.   My point was that humans cannot guess things such as Ian escaping Florida (well they guess but that is not really a forecast) so their track was based on modeled outcomes.  I am defending the NHC because they forecast the best they could with the information they had.  People are debating landfall forecasts so this was a comment on the eventual track post landfall.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Yesterday's POD for today has the first flight this evening, I assume based on forecast of a later exit from Florida.  Anybody know how quickly they can task a plane?  Data before the 11 pm EDT might be helpful to NHC.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is also pretty far NE too into SC.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This will be rough for SC. Huge area of TS to minimal hurricane winds will move a lot of water. It's more the size of the high wind area vs the strength of the wind that determines the surge. That plus any harbors/rivers to funnel it in which SC especially near Charleston has plenty of. 

Yeah the surge will be a problem for a big chunk of real estate. 

I wonder if people are that concerned though since it'll only be a Cat 1.

[KChuck]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Most cane models only worry about going out 3 days for details. That's why past 3 days is hatched in the maps. Do you follow the 348 hour GFS model to plan your picnics and vacations? 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Especially in these situations where there is a quite a bit of uncertainty present and you have so many factors which will be an influence.

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago.    If we are going to talk cone then there is not much to discuss.  I thought the disco was on actual landfall and track of the core.   No model that I noticed had Ian escaping Florida until a couple days ago which explains the track the NHC was putting forth.  

 

 

[Hotair]

19 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Clearwater Beach barrier island is the biggest disaster waiting to happen and they got very lucky with Ian. They have built every inch of that barrier island. New homes, condos, hotels, restaurants, etc. Right on the Gulf, on the inlet, on all the waterways and the beach there is very narrow.

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is also pretty far NE too into SC.

Looking like it's jogging a little more east on radar too. As it has for its entire life cycle, the trend on globals has been east too. Starting to think we can peak at 70-75 knots with more east jogs. 

[Tezeta]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

I am sure the costs will be socialized again again when insurance companies go belly up. Taxpayers are definitely going to have to pony up for all the destroyed rental properties and second homes down there. 

[ScottB]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

Feel like that 4-7 is going to slide further north to the SC/NC border. Charleston/Myrtle Beach will probably get the brunt of it. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago. 

 

The real question is why 2 public facing data products provide 2 different possibilities at the same time -- one product says center of circulation of a major could be directly overhead (and has warned of that possibility for a week), the other says expect tropical storm conditions, you're not getting a direct hit. But that's a discussion for the banter thread.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was looking at the NHC track just two days ago, not the cone.   My point was that humans cannot guess things such as Ian escaping Florida (well they guess but that is not really a forecast) so their track was based on modeled outcomes.  I am defending the NHC because they forecast the best they could with the information they had.  People are debating landfall forecasts so this was a comment on the eventual track post landfall.

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago. 

 

 

Gotcha...I think I see what you're saying now. 

 

[GaWx]

Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall well northeast of Charleston and probably northeast of Georgetown. I'm currently thinking Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

[Normandy]

the NHC only mistake was giving the GFS credence.  Never in the history of weather has a major hurricane and a trough behaved like the GFS was forecasting.  All of the other models eventually caught on and the GFS was still adamant even as it was approach Cuba.  If the GFS is alone, it’s wrong.

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Gotcha...I think I see what you're saying now. 

 

I was trying to defend the NHC and say that if you have a suite of models of which almost none show a landfall/track at a certain place (in this case a wide loop back into the Atlantic) you are probably not going to go off on your own and suggest something that has no backing.  We all know that the models can change drastically run to run and the NHC/NWS relies heavily on them as forecasting is much better than the alternative of not using them.   

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

the NHC only mistake was giving the GFS credence.  Never in the history of weather has a major hurricane and a trough behaved like the GFS was forecasting.  All of the other models eventually caught on and the GFS was still adamant even as it was approach Cuba.  If the GFS is alone, it’s wrong.

Wasn't it performing better than the Euro earlier on?

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

This has all the hallmarks of a STC. The wind limits are not in surface pressure, but in radius. Broader impacts. 

[NavarreDon]

Yikes!!!

.

[Santa Clause]

4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Yikes!!!
 

 

 

.

 

 

Jesus

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago.    If we are going to talk cone then there is not much to discuss.  I thought the disco was on actual landfall and track of the core.   No model that I noticed had Ian escaping Florida until a couple days ago which explains the track the NHC was putting forth.  

 

 

Messenger ticks

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The president has been known to make gaffes (just stating a fact).  Let's wait for actual numbers from officials.

Pretty sure he also said "could be" not "is". 

[OKTWISTER]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The president has been known to make gaffes (just stating a fact).  Let's wait for actual numbers from officials.

I agree as I do not think the fatality total will be anywhere near the high numbers on the list, I just wanted to point out the hyperbole being said without facts even being known. 

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This has all the hallmarks of a STC. The wind limits are not in surface pressure, but in radius. Broader impacts. 

And not to let guards down, but the perfect storm was ~980 mb. Ian looks like will be similar in intensity. Stronger surface HP than in this case, but close enough to mention.

I know that name will take on alarmist connotations but it's a good reference bc so many know about it.

[dan11295]

This thread is really getting derailed into banter/politics...

[mappy]

political posts will be hidden. 

[Thrasher Fan]

From the Lee County Sheriff's Office... 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

do you think this didn't contribute to ian's strengthening right before landfall? come on

 

Rapid intensification has become the new normal in recent years with the steadily warming SSTs. 

 

 

 

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Any way to bifurcate post-FL Ian landfall analysis and updates and real-time obs/model discussion?