Hurricane Ian

[MattPetrulli]

 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Whats is left of the NW eye wall still not disappointing.

They are getting hammered with rain as well. Daytona Beach is under a Flash Flood Emergency 

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I mean give credit where credit is due. I know this path susequently moved around after this, but this was spot on right here.

It swung a bit farther west in the nw Caribbean, but ended up in the same location.

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It was, wish the modeling would have held. I think some people got a sense of security when the track supposedly shifted north into the big bend area. Unfortately thats just how it goes with forecasting.

If they would have just thrown the GFS in the garbage where it belongs and went with king euro the entire time, it would have been perfect.

[CoastalWx]

64kts Orlando.

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

 I think some people got a sense of security when the track supposedly shifted north into the big bend area. Unfortately thats just how it goes with forecasting.

But the actual landfall point was always in the cone. From day 1. It's like people don't understand that the "cone" represents only the potential path of the eye.

 

Really, if one is in the cone or within the radius of the eye outside of the cone, preparations for an eyewall strike should be taken. And if they're within the radius of the hurricane force winds outside of the cone, then prepare for hurricane force winds. Likewise for TS force winds.

[clskinsfan]

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Here we go with this BS we endured after Katrina. The ignorance of some people…idk why I even try. What’s said is I even scrolled through Twitter and saw post from local Mets down there saying “we had little time to prepare” or “this was only suppose to be a weak hurricane”

[DeltaPilot]

Can I make a suggestion to anyone who will get to take videos of damage or whatever. SLOWDOWN PANNING YOUR DEVICE. DONT WALK WHILE FILMING.

 

G E E Z U S.

[MattPetrulli]

Hurricane warnings out for SC coast. 4-7 feet of surge for there too.

[NYC10023]

26 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Has anyone heard from Fort Myers Beach?

NBC-2.com has is showing a lot of horrendous damage from there

[ILoveWinter]

11 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I mean give credit where credit is due. I know this path susequently moved around after this, but this was spot on right here.

Interesting. Reminds me of many occasions where the track of a winter storm/N'or Easter predicted 5 days out ends up being the closest to being accurate (until it's only 24 hours out). 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

But the actual landfall point was always in the cone. From day 1. It's like people don't understand that the "cone" represents only the potential path of the eye.

 

Really, if one is in the cone or within the radius of the eye outside of the cone, preparations for an eyewall strike should be taken. And if they're within the radius of the hurricane force winds outside of the cone, then prepare for hurricane force winds. Likewise for TS force winds.

The forecasts and the possible landfall due to the cone were different though. That is nobody's fault...just pointing it out. Sure the cone maybe said landfall could occur on the outer edge of it, but they were only under a TS warning. 

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Sad, I went there for my 30th birthday, stayed at Sandcastle Beach resort which is basically right behind the square. My parents loved it so much they bought a timeshare. Were supposed to go down today. Not sure whats going to happen with that place now.

[floridapirate]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Wow - Daytona Beach is getting slammed. Sustained 53, gusting to 72. I doubt that area was prepped for this.

 

National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Daytona Beach International Airport

I can vouch for that.  We moved inland near Deland, sustained strong winds, 12"+ inches of rain and still pouring.

[CoastalWx]

NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday. 

[NavarreDon]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 291500
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the
system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside
of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.
Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about
70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt
were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These
data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this
advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly
gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has
moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave
trough moving southward across the southern United States should
turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday.
The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with
the latest consensus guidance.

Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a
longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should
maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased
pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front
near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds
on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane
again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian
should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been
issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is
consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.
It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure
when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will
extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.


.

[NeonPeon]

This is unfortunately the reality of human behavior. The more defined a probabilistic forecast is, the more expectation there is of it. The NWS can say a million times that the center of the cone is not a track prediction, but people by and large cannot interpret probabilistic risk. 

We've never had things better in terms of lead time and prep, but as the forecast verifies more and more often, the more people will be angry about vacillations in increasingly less significant details of that forecast. Less significant in terms of public policy and risk management, not less significant in terms of their house.

[chrisNJ]

2 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

I can vouch for that.  We moved inland near Deland, sustained strong winds, 12"+ inches of rain and still pouring.

Sisters house in New Smyrna beach taking on water. Her car is half under water. Parents to the north in Ormond are watching a stormwater pond creep closer to their house. No power. Radar looks very bad. Scary stuff. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday. 

And yet, someone (or some group, or some algorithm) within NHC sniffed out this probability from the very beginning.

I'm not going to pretend to know anything about how mets or the NHC does things, but from my admittedly simplistic view and experience as a layperson, I think the easiest and most effective solution would be to hurricane warn any coastal area within the cone at T-36 hours of landfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday. 

I'll post my results later.

I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification. My "city of focus" was Fort Myers.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

And yet, someone (or some group, or some algorithm) within NHC sniffed out this probability from the very beginning.

I'm not going to pretend to know anything about how mets or the NHC does things, but from my admittedly simplistic view and experience as a layperson, I think the easiest and most effective solution would be to hurricane warn any coastal area within the cone at T-36 hours of landfall.

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

[TriadDeac]

St. Augustine...wow!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification.

If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.   

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

[NeffsvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

That happens regardless though. People are incredibly ignorant when it comes to weather, statistics, and probability.

[Akeem the African Dream]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Sad, I went there for my 30th birthday, stayed at Sandcastle Beach resort which is basically right behind the square. My parents loved it so much they bought a timeshare. Were supposed to go down today. Not sure whats going to happen with that place now.

Their first mistake was buying a timeshare 

If they own they will either lose all their money or have to pay a special assessment 

[dan11295]

I wonder how the communities closer to the coast that got the NW eye wall fared with the winds (e.g. Boca Grande to Englewood).  Obviously a lot of focus on the storm surge, but I know a lot of that construction is newer so maybe it held up fairly well. I know newer construction did better in Michael, which was a bit stronger.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

I woke up yesterday and couldn't believe it.