Hurricane Ian

[Santa Clause]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

That precip shield seems to be completely stationary.

Freshwater flooding will be big issue.

[lee59]

Daytona, still quite a distance from the center of Ian, reporting 41mph sustained and 53 mph gust.

[Chambana]

SevereStudios is playing archived footage from Sanibel Island as Ian came ashore, it’s chills down your spine. Wow. 

[Nibor]

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sunset on Ian

 

[olafminesaw]

Yellow is 14", white 20"

[NavarreDon]

Congrats to the men & women @ the NHC!

.

[Maxwell03]

This storm delivered some of the most jarring footage in years. Reporters and lay persons always come off prone to hyperbole in these situations but there is no embellishing what we saw today. This was the real deal. 

[Wannabehippie]

9:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.3°N 81.6°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pretty impressive precipitation bands N of Ian's center.  Should be some incredible rain totals the next 24 hours.

[Radtechwxman]

11 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

why does the nhc overstate the wind intensity of these storms?

up until a few minutes ago, they had this thing as 115mph cat 3. that would imply gusts to 125-130+. where are these winds occurring? i haven’t seen any observations close to that in many hours.  i understand you aren’t necessarily going to capture the absolute strongest wind, but i would think you would see sustained winds somewhere over 100, right? 

i’m skeptical sustained winds were ever close to 150 at landfall, but whatever. 

You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range but look what it did....

[TradeWinds]

This convergence zone over Orlando is producing high rain rates and wind. MCO last hour is 37 sustained and 60+ gusts. I'm seeing lightning and hearing thunder. 

[MattPetrulli]

18z Euro continuing the trend of bringing a Cat 1 ashore Friday in Carolinas. 

[sakau2007]

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range. 

that’s kinda my point. i get the idea of friction reducing wind speed… but the reality is this thing is now well inland...

 

and i’ll partially buy the reasoning that equipment fails (although over the last decade the number of storm chasers putting themselves in the worst areas makes me even somewhat skeptical of that) but what about now? where are 100+ mph sustained winds occurring? i doubt anywhere. gusts into the 80s or 90s? sure. sustained at 105 after 9pm? i doubt. 

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

that’s kinda my point. i get the idea of friction reducing wind speed… but the reality is this thing is now well inland...

 

and i’ll partially buy the reasoning that equipment fails (although over the last decade the number of storm chasers putting themselves in the worst areas makes me even somewhat skeptical of that) but what about now? where are 100+ mph sustained winds occurring? i doubt anywhere. gusts into the 80s or 90s? sure. sustained at 105 after 9pm? i doubt. 

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

[WEATHER53]

What is the projected path of remnants for NC VA and MD ?

[nwohweather]

18z GFS continues the trend of deepening and brings a 982 MB storm west of Charleston Friday evening. 

I picked a hell of a week to come to the Smokies eh? Honestly been looking like a hell of a wind event over SC as this thing interacts with that trough

[Maestrobjwa]

Any particular the title of this thread wasn't ever changed to "Major Hurricane Ian"?

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any particular the title of this thread wasn't ever changed to "Major Hurricane Ian"?

We have failed Ian and this thread 

[Wannabehippie]

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

This is pretty impressive

Tropical storm conditions are occurring over a wide swath of the 
Florida peninsula.  An automated station at the Airglades Airport, 
located west of Lake Okeechobee recently reported sustained winds of 
42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).  A WeatherFlow 
station located at Skyway Beach in St. Petersburg, Florida recently 
measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph 
(82 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Melbourne Beach Barrier 
Island Sanctuary recently observed sustained winds of 42 mph (68 
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

Coast to coast TS conditions

[MattPetrulli]

Eyewall has turned into a supercell like structure. Pretty cool, wonder what's going on with that.

[cptcatz]

40 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

[TPAwx]

On the "fringe" of Ian has meant TS+ winds since afternoon and sideways rain for 4 hours and much more to come.  No power at home in Tampa, so going to hold off on returning.

[Floydbuster]

Looks like DeSoto City is next up, then what is left of the eye will head generally towards Melbourne. 

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

I understood what he was trying to say and still stand behind my explanation. I think the NHC knows what they're doing 

[beavis1729]

34 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

When NHC says “max sustained winds of 105 mph”, that could be based on extrapolation or other estimates…as there may not be reliable surface obs in the exact/tiny spot where the max sustained winds are occurring. 
 

Usually, the max sustained wind values are very localized in a hurricane. Most areas “near” the eye wall (and even this covers a small geographic area) are probably 70-90 mph. The max of 105 mph could be a very tiny surface area on the ground (and therefore likely missed by obs)…but could still technically be correct because of the word “max”…even as it’s actually not experienced by a lot of people. 
 

The exact words are very important here. I agree there could probably be more accurate and meaningful ways of communicating the areas of higher sustained winds for a hurricane…but people are drawn to the “max” because it’s sexier. 
 

Just my two cents. 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

The NHC does a fantastic job overall. Their forecast verifications speak for themselves. However, I am wondering why they are saying that it has been moving NNE for the last 6 hours when it has been a straight NE move each hour since 4 PM. It has moved from 26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

[TradeWinds]

Our local mets explained why Orlando to Daytona is experiencing some of the highest winds this evening. Daytona had a 73 mph gust. The cold front is causing an intrusion of cold air. As the cold air sinks, it is efficient at bringing down the winds aloft. The rain is helping too. 

[Rhino16]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

Isn’t that exactly NE? I don’t get that either then. Are they basing it off of an earlier time maybe?