Moderately Unstable Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error. I mean, sampling the inbound side's returns, I'm seeing plenty of 180s to 190s with a spot of 210 and 222. So, I don't think it's an error. Mesovorts around an eye like that. Does still seem to be strengthening. Phew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done? Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5. Any thoughts? Katrina, Sandy, Harvey in that order. This may fall as #4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done? Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5. Any thoughts? Thing is, New Orleans was essentially an unfilled pool waiting for splashover 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, bdgwx said: There are multiple 200+ mph bins on the right side now too. Yes there is. Just found a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Here are the radar loops for Tampa Bay https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW/loop.html https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW2/loop.html https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW3/loop.html The first one is in tighter. The other 2 are over wider distances. These loops make it look like it is moving due north right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 East coast hurricane warning extended south to Sebastian Inlet. my neighbor was out in the rain and wind this morning putting up shutters. Better late than never 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Recent gust at this location up to 81 mph within the last 10 minutes. Most recent report from this station shows a wind gust to 85 mph. It is located just north of Sanibel and is in the edge of the eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recon is inbound and will likely catch the western eyewall. I was dead wrong about intensity last night, so I'll sit this one out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: I mean, sampling the inbound side's returns, I'm seeing plenty of 180s to 190s with a spot of 210 and 222. So, I don't think it's an error. Mesovorts around an eye like that. Does still seem to be strengthening. Phew. Yeah there's definitely support for this. Very terrifying. Even more terrifying that Ian continues to show signs of strengthening. With the eye so large too, even when a part of the eye gets over land he may still be able to ingest enough warm/moist air to maintain cat 4/5 longer than usual or even continue with the strengthening signal for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I just found that too That's a bit out of my area of knowledge but I would think there would be some reduction of wind over land, however, in this case I don't think it really matters. I mean when talking about winds of this magnitude is there really much of a difference? Sounds like it could be the worst of both worlds. Side that gets less surge gets worse winds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, AnthonyEC said: Katrina, Sandy, Harvey in that order. This may fall as #4. Using normalized costs, the list is Katrina, Andrew, Maria, Ida, Sandy, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Recon is inbound and will likely catch the western eyewall. I was dead wrong about intensity last night, so I'll sit this one out. To be fair, few of us really expected this level of intensity today... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, jpeters3 said: To be fair, few of us really expected this level of intensity today... "raises hand" 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just something to consider. If Ian dumps as much rain as forecasted, this may not weaken as much as we would normally expect as it moves across FL(seen this happen in the past). This could have serious implications for the GA/SC/NC coast down the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: Just something to consider. If Ian dumps as much rain as forecasted, this may not weaken as much as we would normally expect as it moves across FL(seen this happen in the past). This could have serious implications for the GA/SC/NC coast down the line. Why would that happen? Brown ocean effect from it's own rainfall? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 What do people think will be the highest wind speed recorded at ground level? All these eye popping numbers are substantially elevated in the atmosphere, I'll be interested to see what actually makes it down to street level. I'm thinking we should at least see a few 120mph or so. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Most recent report from this station shows a wind gust to 85 mph. It is located just north of Sanibel and is in the edge of the eastern eyewall. This station has just reported a wind gust to 91 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Quote Tweet Dave Malkoff @malkoff · 34m Crazy #HurricaneHunt ! Our @USAFReserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron just landed. We hit hail, massive turbulence in the eye wall that dropped us 1000+ feet and saw #hurricaneIan rapidly intensity. It was NOT even calm inside the eye. edit: they suffered some damage to their plane in the storm 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, DeltaT13 said: What do people think will be the highest wind speed recorded at ground level? All these eye popping numbers are substantially elevated in the atmosphere, I'll be interested to see what actually makes it down to street level. I'm thinking we should at least see a few 120mph or so. I'll go with 90mph sustained, gust to 110-120mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said: Why would that happen? Brown ocean effect from it's own rainfall? Much of FL is swamp land so it won't weaken as fast as if it was headed into a mountainous area, but it won't stay cat 4 or 5 for very long since perfect conditions are needed for that. If it speeds up it might stay as a hurricane across the peninsula though. Unfortunately for Charlotte Harbor looks like a worst case track/scenario here. Cape Coral near the edge of the eyewall too and will experience hours of steep water rise. Naples is a good bit further away from the eye and seeing steep rises. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Just something to consider. If Ian dumps as much rain as forecasted, this may not weaken as much as we would normally expect as it moves across FL(seen this happen in the past). This could have serious implications for the GA/SC/NC coast down the line. The brown ocean effect won't save Ian from all that dry air that it's going to wrap into its circulation later today. We should actually see Ian weaken faster than normal when compared to other landfalling hurricanes in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Storm surge M4.8ft Naples, FL. Appears to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Recon is inbound and will likely catch the western eyewall. I was dead wrong about intensity last night, so I'll sit this one out. You, me and many others. TPC was wrong but in the other direction. Intensity forecasting as I said a few days back is still the holy grail of tropical forecasting. I was uncertain if Ian would fully recover from the ERC. Sometimes storms do and sometimes they do not. I was counting on some shear to keep Ian below the TPC 130 mph max intensity. Was thinking 110-120 mph at landfall. Dead wrong. I did mention yesterday though that the ERC started at the wrong time and that potential did exist for full recovery, it fully recovered and exceeded! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sanibel getting rocked with high winds on the webcams that are still live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Still on the "weaker part" of eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Which one are you getting to load? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: Quote Tweet Dave Malkoff @malkoff · 34m Crazy #HurricaneHunt ! Our @USAFReserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron just landed. We hit hail, massive turbulence in the eye wall that dropped us 1000+ feet and saw #hurricaneIan rapidly intensity. It was NOT even calm inside the eye. edit: they suffered some damage to their plane in the storm We forget it is dangerous work. Especially in something like Ian. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still on the "weaker part" of eyewall. The storm surge started but the tsunami hasn't hit yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now