jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Have to assume an extreme wind warning is coming very soon. Eyewall knocking on the door of the coast next few hours. Also frictional convergence should tighten up the eyewall and close it off again. Yep, eyewall looks to be only 15 miles off the beach which is where the extremely strong surge and wind would be. Only a few hours away from Captiva on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Half a kilometer lower, I'd think temps would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Northern eyewall looking intense from Tampa's radar. 55+ DBZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Northern eyewall looking intense from Tampa's radar. 55+ DBZ ProTip: turn the smoothing off. You'll see the finer features better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like latest recon may have found cat 5 winds in Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like latest recon may have found cat 5 winds in Ian. This would be historic if they pulled the trigger yeah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Possible that strongest winds north of worst surge which I suppose is a slightly better outcome? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizz said: This would be historic if they pulled the trigger yeah? Yes it would 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Possible that strongest winds north of worst surge which I suppose is a slightly better outcome? Would likely help a bit. SE and E side continue to show structural issues on radar. Hopefully it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I noticed the GFS and euro yesterday had the strongest 925mb winds on the northwest side too. I expect the St Pete area to have issues with winds more so than Tampa too due to the NE flow over the bay and subsequently less frictional impact. I’ve noticed before PIE SPG airports can gust 10-20kts higher in NE flow with TSs making landfall to their south. Wouldn’t be shocked with the NW eyewall if there are still gusts to 80-90mph there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Outflow is restricted on the SW side and shear is evedint on IR loop. However, only 4-6 hours to go and storm is thus far doing a good job of fighting it off. Maybe just some slight weakening until landfall but either way it’s a large storm with a large wind field and the impacts are going to be major. That's part of what I missed in expecting it to "only" come in as a cat 3. Its easy to lose sight of how impervious these things can grow to be to their surroundings. Amazing sequence over the past 12-24 hours....hope people got the hell out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Isaiah_Wx CODE RED @IsaiahHartzell2 RECON has support for a 140 kt storm, 160 MPH, Cat. 5. The next plane is going in for another pass 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 933.1 mb in this pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Possible that strongest winds north of worst surge which I suppose is a slightly better outcome? They probably factored that in to the surge forecast, I would think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 138 and 137 knot SFMR, flagged however 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recon has found a central pressure of 933.1 mb, so Ian continues to flex and is still deepening folks near Ft Myers better hope the cane stays on the water longer and comes in North of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Have they released the UAS into the eye yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's part of what I missed in expecting it to "only" come in as a cat 3. Its easy to lose sight of how impervious these things can grow to be to their surroundings. Amazing sequence over the past 12-24 hours....hope people got the hell out. Intensity forecast have always been a wildcard for the models. In this case, the dry air won’t come in time to weaken this before landfall. Lately, it seems we have had more hurricanes doing this 48/24 hr rapid intensification to really raise the ceiling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Wonder what happened with the recon? They were about to do a S to N pass and turned around it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 First visible of the day! Surge is going to be horrific near and to the right of exact landfall. Feel bad for folks on the barrier islands from Boca Grande down towards Sanibel. Also for Fort Myers area. Some extremely expensive real estate built to high standards but we might just be about to find out how it withstands an extreme storm surge and near record winds and low pressures for that part of Florida. Even if Ian has peaked or is peaking now the surge is built up and is going to get shoved onto the coast. Bad situation. Satellite and radar extremely impressive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Recon has found a central pressure of 933.1 mb, so Ian continues to flex and is still deepening folks near Ft Myers better hope the cane stays on the water longer and comes in North of them. Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Wonder what happened with the recon? They were about to do a S to N pass and turned around it seems Could they just be delaying a bit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. Mostly new development so hopefully able to withstand these winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 IR presentation looks a hair better now than an hour ago, the eye is still filled in but looks a bit more symmetrical, though it might not fully clear out on visible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 For Tampa Bay, besides the severe flooding, is the risk that the water gets pushed out by the north east winds on the western side of the storm and then surges back in the Tampa Bay as the storm passes to the north east and they get strong southwesterly winds on the south western side of the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. Myers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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