mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Gentle reminder that we have a banter thread. and try to add more than "wow cat 5" to your posts. 11 4 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment. Yeah looking "weak" on that side on radar too. Seems to be becoming more uniform as we speak though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment. Not too surprised at that. West eyewall is more impressive on BR and IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye really tightening up now. This needs to get on shore soon. Cat 5 not sure, but high end 4 seems likely now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 155 MPH at 6:35 Update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 617 WTNT64 KNHC 281036 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 635 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 635 AM EDT...1035 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.73 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 155 MPH at 6:35 Update please include the text/link next time. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to the tweet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Second plane just found 143 kts flight level, 137 kts SFMR on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX Thank you sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 MB drop in about an hour and a half Oh yeah the near category 5 winds also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye looks to finally clear out in the past hour or two from ir view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 There are several analog hurricanes which hit SW FL from the S/SSW. The most similar ones are Charley and especially the infamous Oct 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane. The Oct 1944 storm was similar in size to Ian and much larger than Charley, and hit as a category 3 with pressure of 949 mb. The similarity of the Oct 1944 hurricane to Ian is quite concerning for the insurance industry in FL, which is already reeling from the recent loss of numerous insurance providers. If the Oct 1944 'cane were to hit today it be expected to cause direct economic losses (damage) of around $80 billion - adjusting for per-capita wealth and population increases as well inflation! See the tweet below for methodology for calculating normalized losses from past hurricanes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The EWRC came at the worst time yesterday. You could see this coming. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 139 kts flight level, 101 kts SFMR in the ene eyewall, the weakest part on radar, so the numbers makes sense. 937 mb, officially, per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye looks clear. Cold cloud tops popping up in the SE quadrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Surge upped to 12-16 ft on new advisory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, jconsor said: There are several analog hurricanes which hit SW FL from the S/SSW. The most similar ones are Charley and especially the infamous Oct 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane. The Oct 1944 storm was similar in size to Ian and much larger than Charley, and hit as a category 3 with pressure of 949 mb. The similarity of the Oct 1944 hurricane to Ian is quite concerning for the insurance industry in FL, which is already reeling from the recent loss of numerous insurance providers. If the Oct 1944 'cane were to hit today it be expected to cause direct economic losses (damage) of around $80 billion - adjusting for per-capita wealth and population increases as well inflation! See the tweet below for methodology for calculating normalized losses from past hurricanes. Being in the industry, the people will suffer too. So many policies dont have wind/hail coverage or have wind/hail deductibles of 5%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: 162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde Impressive but not the surface level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 T7.2 if anyone cares. Same as Micheal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde Three things. 1. Not at the surface 2. Those are considered gusts in almost all instances now 3. "Only" 132 knots in the lowest 150m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX Very interesting, @turtlehurricane! Do you have any published papers (either by yourself or others) that you can share on the topic you mentioned - frictional convergence near the coast feeding high vorticity into the eyewall and amplifying the vortex? Thanks. A quick Google scholar search yielded two papers from the 1990s, one on Hurricane Andrew and one on Irene which hit S FL in 1999:https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/77/3/1520-0477_1996_077_0543_haifdo_2_0_co_2.xmlhttps://www.iweathernet.com/print/irene-1999.pdf (Easier to read version at https://www.iweathernet.com/tropical/hurricane-irene-1999-intensification-and-downbursts-after-landfall) Here is a more recent one I found:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300499 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Latest VDM from recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 28Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86WB. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Are the wind velocity radar products measuring speed component away/toward the radar site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM from recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IanStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 28Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86WB. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center If it doesn't reach category 5 (hopefully a little dry air can disrupt the core), this will be a great candidate for a post review category 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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