Hurricane Ian

[NavarreDon]

Landfall?




.

[NYC10023]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

High end flooding occurring in Key West 

 

This is a bit unexpected (?)

[MNstorms]

The eye is trying to come back.

[MattPetrulli]

Curious if NHC ups the surge estimates for Ft Myers area at 11 PM, because of the EWRC expanding size.

 

[WxWatcher007]

First VDM from recon

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.68N 83.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (102.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 1:59:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 102kts (From the ENE at 117.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 1:58:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 2:11:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 117kts (From the SSE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:12:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 2:12:00Z

[yoda]

Eye open on the west side per VDM

[Floydbuster]

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle. 

Yeah this was a pretty quick ERC and it looks like the eye is contracting. Unless shear or dry air disrupts the center, it stands to reason that it would begin a period of (re)intensification overnight.  

[mob1]

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

This is a bit unexpected (?)

I don't know. I think flooding was expected but not to this extent. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah this was a pretty quick ERC and it looks like the eye is contracting. Unless shear or dry air disrupts the center, it stands to reason that it would begin a period of (re)intensification overnight.  

Despite the degree of dry air around there doesn’t appear to be any indications (at least from wager vapor imagery alone) of dry air wrapping into the hurricane at all. Given how healthy Ian is it’s very possible the dry air around it does not impact much.

[MNstorms]

Eye is quickly back

[SnowGoose69]

79mph gust now in EYW...the HRRR did a fairly good job as far as 8 hours out showing the 02-04Z window on the SE side of the storm being where they might see 80mph gusts 

[Floydbuster]

Yeah the more I see that pressure and the completion of the ERC, I think it's actually possible we could still see more intensification. Good grief. If those winds really are expanding, then Marco Island and Goodland aren't far from hurricane force. 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle. 

Just goes to show how unpredictable they are. I mentioned in the other thread that Hurricane Matthew had an EWRC where the inner eye wall bounced around the outer eye wall like one of those old DVD screen savers for what must have been for over 24 hours. Ian seems to have completed this one in around 8-10 hours.

[yoda]

952mb/120mph at 11pm

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Just goes to show how unpredictable they are. I mentioned in the other thread that Hurricane Matthew had an EWRC where the inner eye wall bounced around the outer one like one of those old DVD screen savers for what must have been for over 24 hours. Ian seems to have completed this one in around 8-10 hours.

 

Land induced ERCs on average last for a shorter time I believe than naturally occurring ERCs in a cyclone that has not had land interaction.  The cycle of life where Ian had this ERC was a tad earlier than normal as it really only took off in intensity 24 hours ago so it was probably caused by the Cuba landfall

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Despite the degree of dry air around there doesn’t appear to be any indications (at least from wager vapor imagery alone) of dry air wrapping into the hurricane at all. Given how healthy Ian is it’s very possible the dry air around it does not impact much.

 

[dryslotted]

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee
River is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

[yoda]

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The hurricane continues to have an impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, exhibiting considerable deep convection with
numerous cloud tops colder than -80C.  An Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter Aircraft recently penetrated the center and found that the 
central pressure had not fallen since earlier this evening.  Based 
on a blend of SFMR-observed surface winds and 700 mb flight-level 
winds from the Air Force plane, the current intensity is held at 
105 kt for now.

Ian has turned slightly to the right and the initial motion is now
015/9 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone
should move between the western edge of a subtropical high
pressure system and a broad trough over the eastern United
States.  The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle.  Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one.  This
does not require any change the watches and warnings over Florida at
this time.

Ian's outflow is being restricted over the southwestern portion of
its circulation by southwesterly upper-tropospheric flow over the
Gulf of Mexico.  Vertical shear over the hurricane is likely to
increase up through landfall. The SHIPS guidance and water vapor
imagery suggest that there will also be some dry mid-level air in
the vicinity.   However, it is expected that this large system will
be fairly resilient to the shear and dry air before landfall.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast continues to show Ian
reaching the coast with category 4 intensity.  Since radar imagery
indicates that an eyewall replacement is probably underway,  this
could result in a larger eye evolving overnight.  Interests along
the Florida west coast in the Hurricane Warning area should be
prepared for a large and destructive hurricane, and residents in
this area should heed the advice of emergency management officials.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible, and significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the
center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest
risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas
should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any
evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.  Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through 
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and 
this weekend.  Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of 
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, 
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. 
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected 
across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 24.9N  82.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Wannabehippie]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First VDM from recon

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.68N 83.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (102.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 1:59:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 102kts (From the ENE at 117.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 1:58:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 2:11:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 117kts (From the SSE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:12:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 2:12:00Z

What is the URL where you get this information, so I can bookmark it for future reference? Thanks.

 

[Floydbuster]

NHC is thinking this makes a Category 4 Florida landfall. 

[Wannabehippie]

Lowest pressure up a tick two, probably reflecting the ERC. I bet the midnight advisory will show the min pressure lower.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

What is the URL where you get this information, so I can bookmark it for future reference? Thanks.

 

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

On this site you can follow recon visually with overlays or just follow the data from recon flights. Hope this helps. 

[hlcater]

The fact that the deepest convection is actually on the upshear side of the cyclone likely heralds intensification/resilience in the face of shear at least during the next 6-12 hours.

 

[lee59]

Key West webcams seem to be showing worst weather of the storm now hitting the area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Land induced ERCs on average last for a shorter time I believe than naturally occurring ERCs in a cyclone that has not had land interaction.  The cycle of life where Ian had this ERC was a tad earlier than normal as it really only took off in intensity 24 hours ago so it was probably caused by the Cuba landfall

Interesting. I realized this was land induced, but did not realize that those type are usually quicker. I'll know why if I miss a round of intensification. 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

On this site you can follow recon visually with overlays or just follow the data from recon flights. Hope this helps. 

Thanks

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

There has already been some decent rains tonight,  to areas due E and W of Lake Okeechobee.