Hoosier Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Appears to be moving NNE, and not N It seems like it's between east of due N, and NNE. Important to point out that this ongoing eastern component to the movement is not unexpected though (as reflected in NHC forecast of Ian losing longitude) until a bend back west in a few days. Now it just comes down to exact details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Started tracking more easterly but is this consistent with the models that ended recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It seems like it's between east of due N, and NNE. Important to point out that this ongoing eastern component to the movement is not unexpected though (as reflected in NHC forecast of Ian losing longitude) until a bend back west in a few days. Now it just comes down to exact details. Isn't wobbling normal in a storm this powerful? Like a top spinning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 EWRC does not seem to be complete from what i'm seeing. Any verification? (I think the radar loop i'm looking at is maybe 10 minutes behind...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Wannabehippie said: Isn't wobbling normal in a storm this powerful? Like a top spinning? It’s been forecast to go NNE. Some posters think they’re Sherlock Holmes discovering a clue. 5 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 With the hot towers going up in the SW, I wouldn’t think it would take all that long for them to wrap around and push the EWRC to finish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Anyone have the 18z euro , it should be out enough to show LF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Getting closer to closing off..pretty wild snapshot of SoFla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I’m Honestly surprised how quick this ewrc has been progressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anyone have the 18z euro , it should be out enough to show LF FL and GA landfalls 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, AChilders said: FL and GA landfalls Looks roughly like where Charley hit, no? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It seems like it's between east of due N, and NNE. Important to point out that this ongoing eastern component to the movement is not unexpected though (as reflected in NHC forecast of Ian losing longitude) until a bend back west in a few days. Now it just comes down to exact details. My LF call is Cape Coral. Have family in Estero which is not where you want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, coastal front said: I’m Honestly surprised how quick this ewrc has been progressing. Harvey also pulled up a very quick ERWC and if I remember correctly never had any pressure rise during the process. The radar loop from that is very similar to the current one Ian is doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Folks, just read the advisory. NHC has already stated Ian is moving NNE at 15 degrees. Exact NNE is 22.5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 18z HWRF completes the ERC soon, develops a big eye, and bombs Ian down to 928mb. I really hope that intensity is off. HMON is a more “reasonable” 939mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 18z HWRF completes the ERC soon, develops a big eye, and bombs Ian down to 928mb. I really hope that intensity is off. HMON is a more “reasonable” 939mb HWRF and HMON always seem to overdo pressure drops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Cape Coral could be a really bad spot for a direct hit, highly built up and very little elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: HWRF and HMON always seem to overdo pressure drops. True but we are now inside the short range and those models are extremely efficient with picking up mesoscale features. I would be concerned with the environment they are depicting later tonight and why they are rapidly intensifying Ian. I haven’t looked at the runs yet so idk what they are picking up but I’ll give them a look and see 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: True but we are now inside the short range and those models are extremely efficient with picking up mesoscale features. I would be concerned with the environment they are depicting later tonight and why they are rapidly intensifying Ian. I haven’t looked at the runs yet so idk what they are picking up but I’ll give them a look and see HWRF just took the storm from Columbus Ga to Columbia SC in one run… it’s… something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: HWRF just took the storm from Columbus Ga to Columbia SC in one run… it’s… something Yes they are hurricane models but they tend to have issues concerning inland tracks at this range. For the time being I would be more focused and concerned with the environment they depict later tonight ahead of Ian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Shouldn't be long now, unless it gets disrupted again of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recon plane on the way in shortly....let's see what we got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 COAMPS 12z, waiting to see if we ever get an 18z run or if they are gonna skip past the 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic. No model to-date has gone north of Charleston that I’m aware 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 EWRC over the past couple hours. 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I'm back from Rosh Hoshanah. Wow has this thing shifted east! It looks like SE FL is in for a serious impact. I'm scrambling to fill up containers with water, and making sure all devices are maximum charged. We've been getting torrential flooding rains with lots of lightning. I'll give a more in-depth update about how things have progressed here once I'm done running around. The satellite is very reminiscent of Wilma. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 4 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: EWRC over the past couple hours. Man the new eye is big, has to be at least like 40-50 miles wide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: EWRC over the past couple hours. Good time for recon to head out. It looks like the cycle is concluding but recon would obviously confirm. I think the question now is whether the new eyewall will contract and bring the maximum winds up, or whether the energy becomes dedicated to broadening the hurricane force winds via a larger wind field. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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