mob1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Recon just recorded 946 mb. Wins not impressive on this NW-SE fix but but should be higher in the NE. Sorry, looked at the wrong thing. Recon also shows the double wind maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Believe 946mb is lowest pressure thus far, no? Wonder if we'll see 130mph winds on the NE quad on next pass.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Almost has a spiral look with the banding right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EYW 72mph gust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: Almost has a spiral look with the banding right now. The number of rotating supercells in those outer bands that are appearing on the Key West Nexrad radar is disturbing. I see why there is a tornado watch for all of South Florida until 5AM Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I see the GFS has went more east. Based on that trof i would be shocked if this doesnt continue to correct south and east. 105 knots at landfall seems reasonable though if it takes a more se path a stronger landfall is possible. I can see the cirrus outflow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Recon definitely found two wind maximums, with max wind overall less than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EWRC looks well underway on radar with secondary eyewall really enveloping inner eyewall with degradation of inner eyewall seen. Pretty impressive if we're still seeing pressures dropping that much with this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looking like the 2nd landfall is becoming a real possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looking like the 2nd landfall is becoming a real possibility. If it were to, NHC says they do not anticipate any strengthening. Between dry air, sheer, land interaction, etc. seems plausible it would be high end TS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The southernmost point camera from Key West people are still standing there as huge waves are coming in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looking like the 2nd landfall is becoming a real possibility. I'll go out on a limb here and toss out the idea that Ian's legacy (other than the area of landfall in FL and the track immediately thereafter) will be the inland flooding across GA, SC and NC. We already know what happens in the sandhills of eastern NC when you dump a foot of rain in a day. Been there, done that. A second landfall and potential re-intensification will just add to the misery. I expect evacuations of the Outer Banks to be announced by Thursday. Highway 12 already had sand all over it from Fiona last weekend. They wont take chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: EWRC looks well underway on radar with secondary eyewall really enveloping inner eyewall with degradation of inner eyewall seen. Pretty impressive if we're still seeing pressures dropping that much with this occurring. What I wonder is, with dry air from the trough gradually getting pulled into south and east sides as the storm approaches Florida, will the outer eyewall be able to strengthen enough to take over and finish the replacement cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: What I wonder is, with dry air from the trough gradually getting pulled into south and east sides as the storm approaches Florida, will the outer eyewall be able to strengthen enough to take over and finish the replacement cycle. Appears it’s already happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I'll go out on a limb here and toss out the idea that Ian's legacy (other than the area of landfall in FL and the track immediately thereafter) will be the inland flooding across GA, SC and NC. We already know what happens in the sandhills of eastern NC when you dump a foot of rain in a day. Been there, done that. A second landfall and potential re-intensification will just add to the misery. I expect evacuations of the Outer Banks to be announced by Thursday. Highway 12 already had sand all over it from Fiona last weekend. They wont take chances. OBX would be 200+ miles away from 2nd landfall. Seems like a stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS with absured rainfall totals...the freshwater flooding will be a big story in itself if this comes even close to verifying 10000% this. Wind will be bad enough but this kind of rainfall is devastating. Overnight/diurnal enhancement of training feeder bands and downshear enhancement north/northwest of a slow moving eyewall could produce some hellacious rainfall amounts. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The EWRC seems to be moving along fairly quickly. This is not shocking as it is moving over extremely warm water and seems to be dealing with fairly minimal shear atm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Why does this worry people? Aren't we all here because we love big storms? There wouldn't be 165 members on this thread if we wanted storms to weaken. If people want to live in dangerous places that's there prerogative, I'm not going to stop being a weather enthusiast because people choose to live in high risk areas.. Exactly! Thank you. It absolutely drives me crazy when I read that nonsense on a weather board. The word “worry” is used in place of “Excited!” Cuz what they really mean, is they are tremendously excited that the storm could indeed in fact strengthen more on its way to landfall, and the amount of damage could be even more extreme. This is the real truth, but they use the word “worry” to mask that excitement, because they don’t want folks to say they are wishing destruction on people. This place would go bazurk if Ian could achieve Cat 5 status…it won’t, but if it did everybody here would be Giddy! Just saying. 6 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The southernmost point camera from Key West people are still standing there as huge waves are coming in Clearly the big concern is how bad of a hit Florida takes but for us up the east coast the re-emergence and subsequent 2nd landfall has become a real possibility. Not much unlike Floridas west coast the east coast is also subject to large landfall location shifts by just a few miles of change in track. Still lots in the longer range to be determined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 000 WTNT64 KNHC 272256 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches). During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114 km/h). SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The EWRC that I commented earlier on was in terms of size. Many times you see it constrict a bit but larger than the original eye. I feel like we are seeing this as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EYW may have lost power the observations did not come in at top of hour for there or the air force base nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 SSMIS pass shows the outer eyewall making progress, but still open to the south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EWRC that I commented earlier on was in terms of size. Many times you see it constrict a bit but larger than the original eye. I feel like we are seeing this as we speak. I feel like a good rule of thumb is the eye ends up about halfway between the size of the inner and outer when the process begins. Just from observing these happen and being rather fascinated by the process. Also I've noticed there's often a stubborn little bit of the original eyewall left that takes a while to die. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: SSMIS pass shows the outer eyewall making progress, but still open to the south What site do you get these on? Been trying to find it. I just tried address under picture and it didn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html It actually needs to close off the south quad. Once that happens it is game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html It has everything in its favor to do so though. nighttime, little to no shear and bath water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now