Hurricane Ian

[Normandy]

The monster hot tower being ejected wnw south of the eye is absolutely wild to see.  Monster hot tower on the west side.  Insane trough interaction creating a wild outflow jet to the north.  The Freak show is about to start I think.

[weatherwiz]

Tat one supercell in Miami-Dade/Monroe County is pretty intense looking. That is some pretty strong rotation. If cells can remain discrete like this moving through the next several hours the tornado potential is going to ramp up pretty quickly. Now as the llvl jet strengthens you start to worry about shear becoming too strong with not enough CAPE present but 3km CAPE is around 200 J which is pretty hefty. Thankfully these two seem to be in somewhat rural areas but the HRRR shows some pretty intense storms around Miami this evening. 

[MANDA]

You can sure see how Ian would have weakened coming into the Northern Gulf coast.  DP's right to the gulf coast in the mid to upper 40's and PW generally just about .50".  Definitely not the case from Tampa southward.  Also very dry over the southeast so very cautious about Ian maintaining fully tropical characteristics once off the N FL coast if that track is realized.  Will have ample supply of dry air to ingest.  Most of the wind generated over the GA/SC/NC coast I think would come from the pressure gradient with big high to the north and lower pressure of Ian to the south.  We'll see.  I'm not looking for any notable second landfall.

[AnthonyEC]

Maybe hot towers starting to set up an EWRC. 

[NavarreDon]

You can sure see how Ian would have weakened coming into the Northern Gulf coast.  DP's right to the gulf coast in the mid to upper 40's and PW generally just about .50".  Definitely not the case from Tampa southward.  Also very dry over the southeast so very cautious about Ian maintaining fully tropical characteristics once off the N FL coast if that track is realized.  Will have ample supply of dry air to ingest.  Most of the wind generated over the GA/SC/NC coast I think would come from the pressure gradient with big high to the north and lower pressure of Ian to the south.  We'll see.  I'm not looking for any notable second landfall.

Here is a screenshot of my PWS. It clearly backs up what you’re saying. Lowest DP since last May.




.

[yoda]

Still 952mb/120mph at 5pm

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee.  The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa.  The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.  The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

 

[yoda]

 

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data.  The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast.  A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall.  This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models.  It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land.  The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged
upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level
southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation.
While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too
close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the
larger system is able to resist the shear.  Additionally, an eyewall
replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although
predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult.  The new
forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents
should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the 
Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with 
the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in 
these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and 
follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area 
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning 
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.  Devastating wind 
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all 
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the 
next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by 
Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread, 
prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central 
Florida. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 24.0N  83.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 25.3N  82.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 26.6N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.6N  82.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1800Z 28.5N  81.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/0600Z 29.4N  81.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 31.0N  81.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 34.5N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Radtechwxman]

Really shocked Ian stayed at same winds and pressure. Maybe EWRC is happening and it's leveling off for now. We shall see. Curious if it will hit cat 4 now because of this. Doesn't have a huge window now of ripe conditions for strengthening. 

[Nibor]

Southern part of the eyewall looking scraggly now. 

[Superstorm93]

That's going to be a rather large eye IF it's able to successfully complete the cycle. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Southern part of the eyewall looking scraggly now. 

Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.

[Rtd208]

Seems like a pretty good storm coverage feed.

https://youtu.be/Oot_sJhPqVc

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.

The way it is going, it appears to be moving for a direct hit on S FL. 

[allgame830]

Any reasons why parts of the Bahamas would be under a trop storm warning? 
 

Also with a EWRC under way and still 24 hours to go before landfall that does not bode well for SW west coast of Florida with a much wider wind field and the potential for a strengthening hurricane right before landfall. 

[mob1]

These feeder bands really pack a punch, for a hurricane this is an impressive couplet (with a very pronounced deris signature as well). 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.

How long is the typical EWRC?

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

How long is the typical EWRC?

I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer

[CheeselandSkies]

Couple of Ian-related LSRs popping up, tropical storm conditions and wind damage observed in the Keys.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 WSW BOCA CHICA CHANNE 24.55N 81.80W
09/27/2022                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            A LARGE SILVER BUTTONWOOD WAS DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS ON
            UNITED STREET AND DUVAL STREET IN KEY WEST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
457 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.56N 81.75W
09/27/2022                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH, OR 52 KTS, WAS RECORDED BY THE
            ASOS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 445 PM EDT.
            THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF
            HURRICANE IAN.

 

[Radtechwxman]

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. 

[AnthonyEC]

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. 

The EWRC while slowing the max winds will increase the surge potential dramatically by expanding the hurricane force wind field. 

[HKY_WX]

Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall.

[MANDA]

Again another slight nudge southeast at 5pm with TPC projected landfall near Charlotte Harbor.  No change in forecast surge numbers on FL west coast with 8-12' from Longboat to Bonita.  Intensity at landfall a bit questionable but seems as though Cat. 3 is most likely at this time.  Major impacts likely central and southwestern FL coast from large and expanding wind field, surge and excessive rainfall.

[Hotair]

Here’s something new to consider 

Brendan Weathers

 

@WeathersWX

·

1m

 

The 18z NAM was very intriguing. Shows Ian coming off of Florida at 993 mb and deepening to 971 mb before making another landfall in SC. The same thing shearing it may provide a pattern for re-intensification, and there is enough warmth in the Gulf Stream. Something to watch.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer

Completion is unlikely with land interaction and shear. A larger wind field will increase surge issues as IKE increases though. So it’s a double edged sword.


.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. 

I'd have to agree.  I'm thinking 110-120.  Much will depend on how Ian cycles overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

[AnthonyEC]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

Here’s something new to consider 

 

Brendan Weathers

 

@WeathersWX

·

1m

 

The 18z NAM was very intriguing. Shows Ian coming off of Florida at 993 mb and deepening to 971 mb before making another landfall in SC. The same thing shearing it may provide a pattern for re-intensification, and there is enough warmth in the Gulf Stream. Something to watch.

This has been shows in several models the last few days including the ICON, UKMET and JMA. 

[Superstorm93]

I'd hedge a guess that the window for significant intensification is closing for Ian. The EWRC will likely continue through tonight and shear will likely be on a sharp increase by that time. 

Obviously, the surge and rainfall threats remain rather high. 

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'd hedge a guess that the window for significant intensification is closing for Ian. The EWRC will likely continue through tonight and shear will likely be on a sharp increase by that time. 

Obviously, the surge and rainfall threats remain rather high. 

Yeah think that would’ve been now if it had happened 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Any reasons why parts of the Bahamas would be under a trop storm warning? 
 

Also with a EWRC under way and still 24 hours to go before landfall that does not bode well for SW west coast of Florida with a much wider wind field and the potential for a strengthening hurricane right before landfall. 

Right as it was emerging from Cuba earlier today, I thought that the disruption of its intensification may have meant that we wouldn't see an EWRC prior to LF in FL, however, it actually seems that said land interaction helped to trigger the cycle...which can happen. I am probably in the minority, but given that we are in the early stages of an EWRC with a large outer eye, shear is already beginning to impinge on the circulation and LF is a mere ~24 hrs away, I don't think that it will get much stronger. Main thing to watch for is how much the wind field can expand prior to LF, which will exacerbate surge.

I had 130mph on my First Call as a peak intensity, and was nervous that was too conservative, but I hedged lower after seeing how long it took to get going in the NW Caribbean and factoring in the tenor of the season.