Hurricane Ian

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

my wife is freaking out we have been through many hurricanes in our house but we bought a fifth wheel to live in full time. We are on the east coast Martin County debating on staying or going. leaning towards going to shut her up.

 

4 minutes ago, jpbart said:

Dude, just go.

 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Go, this one is the real deal

 

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

The east coast? I’m confused? 

all of this should be in banter. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota

It’s actually north and west of 6z

[Superstorm93]

(Just in case anyone else is reading this) 

Please, do NOT consult this thread (or any) to make decisions whether or not to evacuate. 

I'm begging you guys to listen to your county/local emergency management officials for all storm related information. 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s actually north and west of 6z

It's not, it's virtually identical 

Edit: Sorry, after the LF point it is north and west. My bad.

[Floydbuster]

 

What a beaut.

[wxeyeNH]

At 30 hours GFS is a bit west again.

[Superstorm93]

Last 4 cycles of the GFS 

[weatherwiz]

The improvements with the eye over the past even 30-minutes alone is quite noteworthy. Clearing out quite nicely and trying to become more symmetrical by the (satellite) update. 

[SnowGoose69]

Appears through 24 the GGEM will finally join the party and come further east but remains to be seen

[wxeyeNH]

12Z GFS  Landfall Thursday 2am.   Just NW of Ft Myers area.  975mb.   This position is slightly NW of last run

[Superstorm93]

Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. 

 

[MattPetrulli]

Last pass adjusting for flight levels and SFMR supports 110-115 MPH on 11 AM advisory

[floridapirate]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. 

 

Does that signify something?

 

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, floridapirate said:

Does that signify something?

 

I read a long time ago that it could be a sign of weakening, but then I've seen multiple hurricanes like Michael and Ida have increased lightning right before they rapidly deepen.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

KNHC issues Vortex Data Message

NOTE: reporting closed eye

832 
URNT12 KNHC 271612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092022

A. 27/15:46:30Z
B. 23.13 DEG N 083.47 DEG W
C. 700 MB 2746 M
D. 961 MB
E. 115 DEG 4 KT
F. CLOSED
G. C19
H. 92 KT
I. 316 DEG 8 NM 15:44:00Z
J. 041 DEG 82 KT
K. 315 DEG 10 NM 15:43:30Z
L. 82 KT
M. 098 DEG 7 NM 15:49:00Z
N. 186 DEG 107 KT
O. 087 DEG 15 NM 15:51:00Z
P. 7 C / 3035 M
Q. 17 C / 3052 M
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM
U. AF302 2109A IAN    OB 17
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 087 / 15 NM 15:51:00Z

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

How is this a 963mb storm??  I hate to disagree with the NHC on anything, but this makes no sense to me, there's just no way?  ADT has this in the 930s, and that looks about right based on presentation.

ADT is an algorithm. We literally have recon in the storm right now. 

Stop. 

[ATDoel]

 

 

4 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

Does that signify something?

 

Usually it's a sign of RI

[clskinsfan]

NW quadrant of the core has really ramped up over the past hour. Eye looks much better now as well. Sad news for Florida.

[hawkeye_wx]

Satellite looks great, but the southern eyewall did just move back over water in the last 20 minutes.  The pressure should respond once the inner core is full over water again and the friction is gone.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  83.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.09.2022    0  22.5N  83.5W      979            56
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   12  24.5N  83.2W      977            60
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   24  25.9N  82.3W      976            60
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   36  27.0N  81.4W      989            42
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   48  28.1N  80.6W      992            44
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   60  29.2N  79.9W      989            53
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   72  30.5N  79.9W      985            57
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   84  33.0N  80.0W      985            40
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   96  34.9N  81.4W      999            29
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  108  36.3N  81.0W     1005            23
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  120              CEASED TRACKING

[Eskimo Joe]

Cool video from NOAA plane

 

[HKY_WX]

I think we're about to see Ian's Wind/Pressure respond in a big way. Vis Sat is spectacular. Central Florida is going to get rocked now that it looks like it's not going to stall offshore.

[jbenedet]

Still see a heading slightly east of due north.

 

[HKY_WX]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  83.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.09.2022    0  22.5N  83.5W      979            56
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   12  24.5N  83.2W      977            60
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   24  25.9N  82.3W      976            60
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   36  27.0N  81.4W      989            42
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   48  28.1N  80.6W      992            44
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   60  29.2N  79.9W      989            53
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   72  30.5N  79.9W      985            57
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   84  33.0N  80.0W      985            40
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   96  34.9N  81.4W      999            29
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  108  36.3N  81.0W     1005            23
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  120              CEASED TRACKING

Just taking a look at forward motion and trends, I'm starting to lean south as well. No time to breath a sigh of relief in Tampa, but trends are going in the right direction for them.

[ATDoel]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

ADT is an algorithm. We literally have recon in the storm right now. 

Stop. 

When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s?  Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading?  The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close.  Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?

[jbenedet]

12z GFS initialized with a 975mb pressure. Still gets down to 960, 18z wed. If we applied a 15 mb drop to Ian at 963 mb, we're looking at 948 mb by 18z tomorrow.

That's conservative based on current sat presentation. 

 

[kat5hurricane]

43 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

It'll come in a different area than Irma, but the satellite appearance, last minute shifts, expansion of the wind field after Cuba, and the angle of approach remind me a lot of Irma. Of course, east coast probably won't be hit as hard since Irma was massive, but think it's a valid comparison. 

The difference being that Cuba did a number on Irma which it never really recovered from whereas Ian seems to be chugging along just fine after Cuba with plenty of growth potential ahead.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Just taking a look at forward motion and trends, I'm starting to lean south as well. Not time to breath a sigh of relief in Tampa, but trends are going in the right direction for them.

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

 

[Superstorm93]