Hurricane Ian

[Eskimo Joe]

NHC issues Vortex Data Message:

83 
URNT12 KNHC 271507
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092022

A. 27/14:27:20Z
B. 22.93 DEG N 083.50 DEG W
C. 700 MB 2775 M
D. 963 MB
E. 150 DEG 5 KT
F. NA
G. C18
H. 75 KT
I. 050 DEG 9 NM 14:24:30Z
J. 135 DEG 89 KT
K. 047 DEG 14 NM 14:23:00Z
L. 78 KT
M. 349 DEG 8 NM 14:34:00Z
N. 093 DEG 87 KT
O. 352 DEG 12 NM 14:35:00Z
P. 8 C / 3061 M
Q. 14 C / 3055 M
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.75 NM
U. AF302 2109A IAN    OB 09
MAX FL WIND 94 KT 057 / 7 NM 13:03:30Z

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Is it a wobble if it's been doing it for six hours lol 

Touche. 

Also, did any model that had Ian at this lat/lon, miss Fla peninsula?

Not really a surprise at this point but a LF on the peninsula should be a lock as far as TC weather prediction goes. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Hurricane Watches are being extended. Should see them populate on www.weather.gov shortly.

[hawkeye_wx]

Ian made it across Cuba as well as it could have, but it still lost about 15 mb.  Given the great structure, it shouldn't be difficult to re-deepen to where it was.

[Radtechwxman]

Based on how Ian looks now structurally, I'm surprised NHC is only forecasting Ian to hit 130mph now. I think that's a bit conservative imo. I get it took a 10mph drop in winds and 13mb increase in pressure but that isn't bad considering hours over mountainous terrain. 

[SnoSki14]

Icon with another major landfall near Charleston

[ATDoel]

This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me.  ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much?  ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop.

[canderson]

The likely of a Charleston hurricane impact seem to be exponentially growing; is there anything atmospherically to prevent it as it looks to be driving far more SE than originally forecast? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, ATDoel said:

This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me.  ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much?  ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop.

ADT estimates aren't the greatest near land. Give it a few hours for the center to get back over water and the ADT will probably match the dropsondes better.

[olafminesaw]

The eye is starting to clear out. Already a stronger looking storm than half an hour ago

[MANDA]

TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory.  This is coming in south of Tampa.  In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south.  Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion.  Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been.  This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible.  Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario.  Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path.  Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that sustained hurricane force winds should not be felt on the east coast expect maybe in a few gusts.  Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004.  Also think it is possible this gets another nudge or two to the right in coming TPC advisories.  The southeast trend probably not quite done.

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me.  ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much?  ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop.

Wasn't exactly the lowest point on the island, but it should recover during the afternoon. 

[hawkeye_wx]

This is a great site to follow the radar.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory.  This is coming in south of Tampa.  In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south.  Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion.  Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been.  This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible.  Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario.  Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path.  Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that hurricane force should not be felt on east coast expect maybe in a few gusts.  Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004.

Ft Myers area is just as surge prone, gonna be really bad down there assuming the angle on the NHC forecast happens

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is a great site to follow the radar.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html

Hey nice find, thanks for sharing.

[MattPetrulli]

Some evacuees on I-4 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

TPC has once again nudged right with 11am advisory.  This is coming in south of Tampa.  In fact they have lowed the surge forecast for Tampa Bay and increased it to 8-12' further south.  Surge disaster for Tampa Bay is off the table in my opinion.  Still noteworthy and potentially damaging but not the disaster it could have been.  This further south lnadfall also means Ian could be coming in near or just below peak intensity as water is warm and "shear damage" will be more negligible.  Only an ERC could change intensity significantly before landfall but that would also expand the wind field so not sure that is best scenario.  Heavy to excessive rainfall along the path.  Only saving grace for wind damage for FL east coast will be slow movement and winds should fall off so that hurricane force should not be felt on east coast expect maybe in a few gusts.  Tampa disaster averted but going to be BAD further south over a much larger area than Charley in 2004.

I think the interaction with Cuba was paradoxically bad news for FL because while weakening the system in the short term, it effectively expands the wind field like an EWRC would have and we are now less likely to see the max sustained winds lowered due to an actual EWRC.

Just my two cents.....someone on the west coast of FL is in trouble.

[Sportybx]

What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida .
I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast .


.

[Superstorm93]

Just now, Sportybx said:

What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida .
I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast .


.

 

Find their location for when the latest surge inundation map comes out 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

What are we looking at for the impacts for Cape Coral Florida .
I have my mother and father down there . Father is in oxygen and both are thick headed and won’t listen to me when I told them to head over to the east coast .


.

I'd get them out-that's likely in the cross hairs

[Mikeymac5306]

This jogs any farther NE Key West is going to have bigger problems no? 

[Prismshine Productions]

Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)

That image gives me nightmare flash backs...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[MUWX]

Quite a bit of lightning in the eye wall right now 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[kat5hurricane]

22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Based on how Ian looks now structurally, I'm surprised NHC is only forecasting Ian to hit 130mph now. I think that's a bit conservative imo. I get it took a 10mph drop in winds and 13mb increase in pressure but that isn't bad considering hours over mountainous terrain. 

Peak strength is often underestimated nowadays. 

[MattPetrulli]

Trying to clear out a stadium effect eye right after Cuba lol

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Find their location for when the latest surge inundation map comes out 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents

Thank you for sharing so others can find their locations vs asking IMBY questions. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

41 kt gust measured at Key West International ASOS - 121 nm from the center.

[wncsnow]

GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota

[MattPetrulli]

It'll come in a different area than Irma, but the satellite appearance, last minute shifts, expansion of the wind field after Cuba, and the angle of approach remind me a lot of Irma. Of course, east coast probably won't be hit as hard since Irma was massive, but think it's a valid comparison.