TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen Yes indeed. You've got that sustained fetch for 24+ hours, layered with 20+ inches of rain that has nowhere to go. The main rivers are dumping all that into the bays. I'm on an east facing shoreline of Hillsborough Bay so I'm going to have an n=1 scenario play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen Hi SnowGoose. I live in NE St. Pete. 5 blocks from the bay. I wouldn't be too worried about that. A 3-4 surge here wouldn't be a huge deal as we've experienced that a number of times over the years. The normal flooding places like Shore Acres would have problems and some homes would be damaged but not too much and not something we haven't already seen before. Overall that would be a huge win for our area compared to any landfall to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 It's probably been alluded to already but, though not as flashy as Tampa Bay, a storm surge into Port Charlotte or Ft. Myers would be incredibly dangerous. Slowly hitting that there is no "good" place for this to come ashore given the current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6z Euro has landfall right at Sarasota around 11pm Wednesday. That's a jump north from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Yes indeed. You've got that sustained fetch for 24+ hours, layered with 20+ inches of rain that has nowhere to go. The main rivers are dumping all that into the bays. I'm on an east facing shoreline of Hillsborough Bay so I'm going to have an n=1 scenario play out. If we got that kind of rain on top of 4' of water, then Shore Acres would be screwed. They would definitely have water in houses. My kids go to school over there and I have to drive through saltwater on any high tide this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 New to Florida, but people keep telling me this is similar to Charley...Really tough to compare this to Charley IMO. Charley was a rapidly intensifying micro cane with a very small diameter of greatest winds. I went through the ‘core’ in East Orlando and saw pretty significant damage from a storm that had been over land for 12+ hours, but my family on the other side of I-4 (about 20 miles away) only saw 25-30mph winds. I think Ian is going to be larger with more impact over a broader area, although maybe not as intense as Charley. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Clyde said: Really tough to compare this to Charley IMO. Charley was a rapidly intensifying micro cane with a very small diameter of greatest winds. I went through the ‘core’ in East Orlando and saw pretty significant damage from a storm that had been over land for 12+ hours, but my family on the other side of I-4 (about 20 miles away) only saw 25-30mph winds. I think Ian is going to be larger with more impact over a broader area, although maybe not as intense as Charley. . Agree. Very small and very fast. Charley still produced Orlando's largest wind ever recorded. 106 mph. Shows how fast the storm moved from S. Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12z hurricane models. Looks like a decent interior rainfall setup for the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I wish I had a faster connection to the Internet. 130mb to complete download.GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2 (nasa.gov) One-minute updates, detailed structure of the eye. Can see the stadium effect and the hot towers. Behold the Power, WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Tampa Bay has an average depth of only 12 feet so there is relatively very little water to pile up compared to all the water that can be pushed the other way from the GOM. Wow....that is crazy. Its like a giant swimming pool. I can't believe that its that shallow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man structure in tact for sure. Cuba did little damage. Yeah sometimes it hurts (Gustav 2008) but other times it makes no difference (Lili 2002, Charley 2004). It seems that Ian has continued to get better organized. In fact, the symmetry looks better than it did 6-8 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 At the ongoing gov's news conference the FL Emerg. Mgmt director said the NHC just told him they now forecast a landfall near Venice late Wed afternoon with 125mph winds. Edit: For clarity the gov asks the director who confirms that it will be the 11 am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, CIK62 said: No Pamper for Tampa. Get Out of Dodge! From the EURO for the wave action: Some guy just now from the governors office just said it’s landing in Venice Florida. Surprised he said that on TV this early out with still uncertainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said: At the ongoing gov's news conference the FL Emerg. Mgmt director said the NHC just told him they now forecast a landfall near Venice late Wed afternoon with 125mph winds. Bad for Ft Meyers and Sarasota but certainly not great for Tampa either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z hurricane models. Looks like a decent interior rainfall setup for the SE. It looks like we're now seeing strong consensus on the west coast landfall zone, but I do still wonder if the medium range will shift more eastward and put the center into the Atlantic briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It looks like we're now seeing strong consensus on the west coast landfall zone, but I do still wonder if the medium range will shift more eastward and put the center into the Atlantic briefly. Was wondering the same thing. If it pulls back over water, even briefly, would argue the freshwater inland flooding threat for the Carolinas increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Was wondering the same thing. If it pulls back over water, even briefly, would argue the freshwater inland flooding threat for the Carolinas increases. Agree. There's already going to be significant issues with the fetch and places like Charleston are extremely vulnerable even when there isn't a major storm. I'd still be watching this closely in coastal GA and SC, and I know that folks like @GaWx are all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curious Onlooker Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: I wish I had a faster connection to the Internet. 130mb to complete download.GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2 (nasa.gov) One-minute updates, detailed structure of the eye. Can see the stadium effect and the hot towers. Behold the Power, WOW indeed, that is a massive beast! Thanks for the link. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Good amount of lightning now as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Wonder how long after Ian clears Cuba that we see an eye on visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Microwave confirms what we are seeing on radar 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow....that is crazy. Its like a giant swimming pool. I can't believe that its that shallow... Sarasota Bay is even shallower - a large majority is around 7-8'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Casey Key webcam; updates every ten minutes: https://deanlebaron.roundshot.com/caseykeybeach/#/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This gif on Twitter was too incredible not to share in here with you all. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Some pretty decent waves already in Key West from the outer bands. https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS) Floyd was another great example over NJ. Lived through that and it was a disaster over parts of NNJ. Floyd itself was a shell of itself with is arrived up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Parts of NNJ had up to 12" rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I didn't expect Ian to look this good this morning. Impressive. Curious if the winds and pressure took a hit. Guessing if they did not by much because it still looks great on satellite with core intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree. There's already going to be significant issues with the fetch and places like Charleston are extremely vulnerable even when there isn't a major storm. I'd still be watching this closely in coastal GA and SC, and I know that folks like @GaWx are all over it. Yup, Charleston is already forecasted to reach major flood stage on Thursday just from the northeasterly fetch. Their third highest water level was from Irma when the center was in southwestern Georgia. Ian’s wind field is not going to be as large as Irma’s, but a track overwater toward the SC coast would push saltwater flooding even higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Man structure in tact for sure. Cuba did little damage. Before my last class, on IR, very cold tops were forming N of the inland eye immediately N of the Cuban coast. I expect fast intensification once completely feet wet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: This gif on Twitter was too incredible not to share in here with you all. The way it just seamlessly passes over Cuba as if it's not even there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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