Hurricane Ian

[shaggy]

Little east of due north now as it feels the effects of land

[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Cuba landfall.

Ian is about to cross Cuba with an open eye and tight CDO. Let’s see what them mountains do to it shortly. If Ian maintains structure and intensity crossing Cuba this is going to be a huge day that we might remember for a long time. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point.

From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes.

Hurricane Models have peak intensity at landfall

[CoastalWx]

Tops are warming so Cuba having an effect. But as long as it has an eye structure, it should re-intensify.

[Nibor]

[Superstorm93]

My biggest fear is that land interaction will induce an EWRC. 

We don't need to expand the winds. 

[Modfan2]

Tropical Storm warnings expanded here in SE FL

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

My biggest fear is that land interaction will induce an EWRC. 

We don't need to expand the winds. 

That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall.

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall.

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

[olafminesaw]

The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario 

[dan11295]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario 

Also basically storms the storm there....I mean its just making it to Orlando at 0z Saturday! I can't really believe it would stall like that for so long.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, Nibor said:

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

The tracks on the models south of Tampa feature little to no dry air and almost no shear. What you are implying is if Ian tracks north of Tampa. A landfall south of Tampa is the path of least resistance. Point is, if Ian rolls in at peak intensity it won’t be Tampa or points north. Too much dry air/shear situated up there

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

Also Ian won’t be over water long if it comes in south of Tampa vs a track to the north. If Cuba induces an EWRC soon Ian will likely recover once it emerges and should be able to landfall intensifying. Very little time to undergo another one once it gets into the Gulf. Of course everything I said changes if it goes north of Tampa.

[Weather Mike]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

Looks like models are coming to some agreement of a Sarasota region landfall give or take 50 miles north or south. 

[Seminole]

6Z GFS is N. Ft. Myers landfall

[CampergirlFL]

Orlando Met


.

[MANDA]

Looking better for Tampa and immediate vicinity this morning in terms of avoiding worst possible storm surge.  Huge difference center going near or north vs. off to the south.  Means difference of water getting pushed into the bay or being blown out.  Let's hope recent trends hold and center crosses south of Tampa.  IMO that is likely based on recent model trends.  Trends over the last few days in fact have been indicating a gradual nudge to the right and TPC has been on top of it with advisories being nudged eastward with each issuance.  Heavy to excessive rainfall still going to be an issue for a large part of Florida peninsula.  Of course one persons gain is another ones loss.  The track further south means the ante is upped in terms of a stronger landfall, perhaps near or just off peak.  There is going to be a 9-12' surge for someone.

[olafminesaw]

Ian is about halfway across Cuba and seems to be holding up well this far, although it is just now getting to the higher terrain (about 1,500 ft hills)

[SnoSki14]

Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. 

A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that. 

[dan11295]

It any other model implying a stall or is the GFS on an island here? Stalls are very often over done and don't materialize. thats said the NW flank of the storm is at higher than normal risk for excessive rainfall if the storm coming to the coast/inland.

[Ja643y]

Hurricane Hunter showing reading of 947.4 over land.. is this extrapolated from Wind speed? They obviously aren’t dropping dropsondes over land. 
 

[cptcatz]

Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that. 

[hawkeye_wx]

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that. 

I was shocked when I saw the recon map.  I've never seen them do a center fix over any land.

Halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was shocked when I saw the recon map.  I've never seen them do a center fix over any land.

I doubt there were any dropsondes, but even halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive.

Recon can do a brief fix or data point if it's near the coast and there is a need (IE: rapid strengthening, expected turn, unusual feature) but it is not a common practice. Got to talk with the hurricane hunters when they were in DC the other year about it. There are 2 reasons for this: 

1.) There is more turbulence flying over land than water.

2.) No terrain issues over water.

[olafminesaw]

[jbenedet]

Looks like a PRE setting up from Fort Myers east through Orlando on down to southern tip of Florida, including Miami.

Model guidance could really be under-estimating the rainfall threat if not keying on this feature. Looks like moderate to heavy rain continues in this area through landfall, some 48 hrs out…

[OSUmetstud]

I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. 

PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like a PRE setting up from Fort Myers east through Orlando on down to southern tip of Florida, including Miami.

Model guidance could really be under-estimating the rainfall threat if not keying on this feature. Looks like moderate to heavy rain continues in this area through landfall, some 48 hrs out…

Yea that's my concern too, especially further inland.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. 

PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)

[dan11295]

Ian is holding up very well on IR, maintaining cold cloud tops around the core. bit of a NNE jog on radar, overall motion is barely W of due north. Ian is passing over the highest terrain on its crossing now, so the eye may get a bit of a ragged look for a bit until it re-emerges.