Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Oh yes, for sure. Was just commenting on how the icon was going up the east coast…and the 18z Euro was heading that way too. But it could just be the 18z nonsense? There will always be hiccup run cycles. Sometimes it's 12 or 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Fam on the water in Sarasota just left to head to the right coast. Their house is under construction so yes that sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It physically cannot just go off to the northeast. Do people understand this? models all moving that way...depends on the trough orientation further north ultimately 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 18z Euro may bring it back over the Atlantic lol Charley did this in 2004 Punta Gorda to Orlando to Daytona then off into the Atlantic did so fairly quickly this will be anything but quick though. Looks like it runs into the ridge then a slow bounce off to the ENE or NE in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The southeast trends continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh yes, for sure. Was just commenting on how the icon was going up the east coast…and the 18z Euro was heading that way too. But it could just be the 18z nonsense? I don't think that there's any nonsense about 18Z, especially because they're doing special balloon launches at 18Z: https://www.wowt.com/2022/09/25/more-weather-balloons-going-up-help-forecast-soon-be-hurricane-ian/?outputType=amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It physically cannot just go off to the northeast. Do people understand this? Silly statement. Things(players) aren’t always(most times not) sampled correctly many days(4-5 days)out from an event. And as you close in on go time, the players start to take the field, and that’s when things start to change many times. This could be that happening, or it could just be a hiccup. 0z will shed more light on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 39 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Have a friend who lives in Fort Myers Beach. Will storm surge be a problem there too? I have a friend that lives in Cape Coral west of Fort Myers Beach surge will be a huge problem prolonged SSW flow right into the coast and in the East and Northeast quadrant. Don't forget about the tornado threat too. This is going to be pretty bad if this evolves the way that it is modeled. Gotta hope for dry air and wind shear to weaken this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EPS looks like the op. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I don't think that there's any nonsense about 18Z, especially because they're doing special balloon launches at 18Z: https://www.wowt.com/2022/09/25/more-weather-balloons-going-up-help-forecast-soon-be-hurricane-ian/?outputType=amp 18z is notorious for hiccups. I know most say that doesn’t happen anymore, but it sure seems to happen quite a bit. But it could be legit..0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks like the op. Hmmm…..changes a foot perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Update: Tampa Bay International Airport to suspend operations at 5 p.m. on Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Ian per governor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 IR presentation is looking a lot better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Recon finding 107 mph winds. This might get to Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory and prior to landfall at Pinar Del Rio Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Latest Euro is a punishing strike to the West Coast of Florida. Lots of wind, surge, and flooding damage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 South of Tampa obviously is much better for them. However, further south there will be less time for shear to act to weaken Ian before it gets to the coast. Much higher risk of a Major at landfall if it keeps trending in this direction. Regardless, the odds of a weakening storm off the coast to the panhandle have really gone down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point ATP, im hoping for more of a miss to the east/south rather than west. Miss to the west looks increasingly unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Fort Meyers and Sarasota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Recon finding 107 mph winds. This might get to Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory and prior to landfall at Pinar Del Rio Cuba NHC has been money on this system. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may be just over correction, unfortunately if it is it likely means Tampa will end up being the landfall point Yeah and it's concerning, definitely not good. The farther south this thing landfalls the greater likelihood Ian can roll in at peak intensity. Have to think less shear, less dry air when you get south of Tampa. Plus, little real estate between Cuba and SW FL so its the path of least resistance. Little time to undergo EWRC vs a track parallel to the coast. This really opens the door to a Cat 4 landfall given Ian tightens up when it goes over Cuba and bombs when it emerges in the Gulf. Something we never want to see closing in to game time...but...it's good to see people down there taking early precautions and rushing their preparations to completion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The 18z euro just reminded me of Charley in 2004 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: The 18z euro just reminded me of Charley in 2004 Yeah not liking the model trends right now. We went from a weaker hurricane on landfall near the Big Bend now to a potential high-end cane rolling into Tampa or points south. Not a good trend to see being a few days out from landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Yeah and it's concerning, definitely not good. The farther south this thing landfalls the greater likelihood Ian can roll in at peak intensity. Have to think less shear, less dry air when you get south of Tampa. Plus, little real estate between Cuba and SW FL so its the path of least resistance. Little time to undergo EWRC vs a track parallel to the coast. This really opens the door to a Cat 4 landfall given Ian tightens up when it goes over Cuba and bombs when it emerges in the Gulf. Something we never want to see closing in to game time...but...it's good to see people down there taking early precautions and rushing their preparations to completion. That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in. I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004 Today that area has almost tripled in population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004 Yeah its way more populous than it was in 2004, which again draws concern that either scenario we are looking at is going to be devastating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Yeah not liking the model trends right now. We went from a weaker hurricane on landfall near the Big Bend now to a potential high-end cane rolling into Tampa or points south. Not a good trend to see being a few days out from landfall Indeed. I mean total property damage would probably be much lower if it comes in hot well South of TB and goes inland than if it stays parallel to TB and churns water into the bay for hours. but my guess is that people South of Ft Meyers have not been too keen on preparations for a Major LF event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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