Hurricane Ian

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

18z RGEM is right into Tampa as well. East of 12z for sure. Only reason I’m bringing this up is because the CMC was still pretty west at 12z, so I wonder if this is a sign that the 0z CMC may join the east train tonight.

PSU local eWall doesn't have Reggie for down here, I assume because we are at the edge of the inner grid for short term high resolution guidance meant mainly for Canada but useful in the Northern US.  Cuba is probably outside the grid, hence Ian forecasts from the Reggie may not be that useful.

[Hotair]

Recon flights are headed into Ian now.  Always good to see Cuba allow NOAA to use its airspace to recon these storms. 

[Doorman]

COD MET  meso-floater 

small scan mode

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[olafminesaw]

Starting to move into shear, but as other have said, a more easterly movement would mitigate 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS 12 a little SE of 12Z at 18. Let's see how this run goes from here.

[beanskip]

18z GFS SE of 12z at 36.

EDIT: And by a fair amount at just 36 hours. 

EDIT: And at 42 hours it is as well -- actually seems like its ESE of 12z position. 

[WhiteLawns]

Anyone know of any webcams in Havana?

[SnoSki14]

Looks like Ian might be more influenced by the trough. 

[hlcater]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Starting to move into shear, but as other have said, a more easterly movement would mitigate 

That pocket is moving with the storm. 

At least it will for awhile

[beanskip]

At 54 hours, it's not as markedly east of 12z run. Of course, 25 miles is the difference between living and dying with this guy. 

[TPAwx]

GFS coming in tight to coast earlier, would drive higher surge across TB 

[CoastalWx]

About near Clearwater at hr 66.

[TradeWinds]

GFS takes an odd jump almost NW between hr 30 and 36. Not sure what that's about. 

[CoastalWx]

Then moves almost due north from there. That would not be good.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Recon flights are headed into Ian now.  Always good to see Cuba allow NOAA to use its airspace to recon these storms. 

Cuba only let non-military NOAA planes fly in Cuban air space.  I think Hurricane Charley was the first storm the USAFR was allowed to fly their airspace.  Probably because timely and accurate warnings are more important than allowing military aircraft from the US in their airspace.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

GFS takes an odd jump almost NW between hr 30 and 36. Not sire what that's about. 

Blocking hitting a brick wall from High Pressure Building SW from the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic recipe for flooding and surge disaster Fort Myers North to the Coastal Bend of Florida. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

WeatherNerds is overloaded.  Can anyone post 850 or 925 winds from GFS?  Even with frictional slowing of surface winds, if there are storms, those storms should mix down inland.  At 66 hours the dry air hasn't reached the TPA area.

[TradeWinds]

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

WeatherNerds is overloaded.  Can anyone post 850 or 925 winds from GFS?  Even with frictional slowing of surface winds, if there are storms, those storms should mix down inland.  At 66 hours the dry air hasn't reached the TPA area.

I'm only to hr 57 on weathermodels. Sarasota is about 100-110 kts. Tampa about 70 kts. That's 850. 

[wxeyeNH]

Here is 925mb winds and surface wind gusts at its closest approach to Tampa

[Superstorm93]

Full GFS track. I really hope we see this shift west tomorrow.

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Full GFS track. I really hope we see this shift west tomorrow.

Why would this be drawn back west headed into GA?  Seems a bit odd.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Why would this be drawn back west headed into GA?  Seems a bit odd.

The high building in

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

966 mb on the drop

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The high building in

Apologies, I thought all the tracks earlier today that were showing a second landfall and eastern NC run were because the HP was retreating and allowing Ian to escape.  

[CoastalWx]

Still lots of dry air I think in nrn half of the storm. 

[hlcater]

recon observations are generally consistent with a category 2 hurricane. ~966mb, 80-85kt SFMR, ~85-90kt FL wind. The data is full of holes, hence the ranges.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Apologies, I thought all the tracks earlier today that were showing a second landfall and eastern NC run were because the HP was retreating and allowing Ian to escape.  

Until Ian crosses Cuba we are unfortunately going to see this back and forth game concerning the track in relation to the building HP

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Watching Cowan video, 18Z GFS is not making Ian look almost secluded with dry air wrapping well into Florida.  it still wraps dry air into Ian, but later and not as dry as 12Z.  Dry air would seem to have reduced rain SE of the track and max gusts.

[NavarreDon]

Full GFS track. I really hope we see this shift west tomorrow.

I’m a bit confused, is this initialized from its current position? It has Ian moving E of N then N before a NNW motion


.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still lots of dry air I think in nrn half of the storm. 

This is not supported on the NOAA9 flight. Could be the storm shaking off dry air from earlier today.