Hurricane Ian

[OSUmetstud]

Also, while the ECMWF does have overall superior forecasting metrics, the GFS had a lower MAE for Atlantic storms last year than the ECMWF did. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Also, while the ECMWF does have overall superior forecasting metrics, the GFS had a lower MAE for Atlantic storms last year than the ECMWF did. 

GFS has closed the cap, to a degree, on the EURO IMHO.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS has closed the cap, to a degree, on the EURO IMHO.

I don't like it too much up here overall, but it's an excellent tropical model nowadays. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I don't like it too much up here overall, but it's an excellent tropical model nowadays. 

Yea, that's what I meant.....I think I recall ECMWF admitting that the last round of upgrades prioritized the mid latitudes at the expanse of the tropics.

[bdgwx]

What is also interesting is that the tropical cyclone ensemble TVCN/A beat the NHC's official OFCL track at nearly all lead times last year (HR96 being the only exception and only by a couple of 1/10ths of a nm).

[olafminesaw]

Per radar, Ian is still trying to close off the eyewall. Judging by the past few hours this will likely take at least a few more hours to occur. Until it does so, Ian may maintain only modest strengthening. At the very least, land interaction may end up tightening the core starting in 12 hours or so.

[Eskimo Joe]

11am Public Advisory

Quote

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE IN THE MIDDLE 
KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD, PINAR DEL RIO, AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA, MAYABEQUE, AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

11am Technical Discussion notes the expanded wind field and thus the Tropical Storm Warning is expanded.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Per radar, Ian is still trying to close off the eyewall. Judging by the past few hours this will likely take at least a few more hours to occur. Until it does so, Ian may maintain only modest strengthening. At the very least, land interaction may end up tightening the core starting in 12 hours or so.

Just making the same obs and drawing the same conclusions.

[cptcatz]

12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet. 

[smokeybandit]

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet. 

They always do. Not a surprise. 

[Weather Mike]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet. 

Looks like impact on the 12z ICON is Tampa or just slightly north

[OSUmetstud]

NHC will typically follow TVCN quite close, which is a corrected consensus blend. Until this shifts west I wouldn't expect much in the way of changes with the cone. It was the best scoring track "model" last year at nearly all lead times. 

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

 

[TPAwx]

ICON is a terrible solution for TB

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

Probably why we are still waiting for the EW to close off....its slowed things down some.

[olafminesaw]

Updated surge forecast upped to 5-10'

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

NHC will typically follow TVCN quite close, which is a corrected consensus blend. Until this shifts west I wouldn't expect much in the way of changes with the cone. It was the best scoring track "model" last year at nearly all lead times. 

 

 

Exactly.  Until that starts to correct TPC track adjustments will be minor.  Also, Tampa still fully in the "cone" any tug to the right, by even 15-20 miles will put Tampa under the gun for the worst of the surge.  Not over by a long shot for serious surge flooding into Tampa Bay.  For Tampa to experience the worst possible surge the center would need to cross the coast just north of the metro area.  Angle of approach also important and we're not likely to see the worst case scenario as far as that goes.  Ian will be moving NNE approaching Tampa as opposed to worst case NE or ENE.  Makes a big difference.  Also Ian moving slowly so any wind trajectory the keeps winds coming up into the bay will be for rather long duration.  Delicate situation and not fully resolved yet IMO.

[NJwx85]

It's pretty astounding how a hurricane in the Western Caribbean in September could have issues with dry air entrainment but you can clearly see all of the dry, sinking air on water vapor loop.

I still think that once Ian gets North of Cuba we're going to see a period of steady intensification, with a likely max intensity near 115-120kts. 

Every major model shreds this storm once it gets North of Tampa so assuming that the center passes at least 50 miles offshore at Tampa's latitude, biggest story might be inland flooding in the Southern Appalachians. 

I know a lot of people that canceled Disney plans for this coming week and I kept telling them that the average track error at day 5 is more than 150 miles. If the HWRF/GFS camp end up being more correct, Central FL might not see much impacts at all.

[Radtechwxman]

6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

Dr. Greg Postel from TWC was talking about this. Was showing the radar and you could see a big void of precip wrapping into the core. He said this likely is inhibiting rapid intensification for now and only allowing gradual intensification. Dry air was never really supposed to be an issue till it got more north into the Gulf. 

[OSUmetstud]

From what I can gather, the main sources of track error are:

Stronger hurricane likely gets a bit further south and west. 

The northeast trough. Does it dig far enough southwest to drag Ian northward or does Ian miss and meander in the GOM for a few days and weaken under shear?

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's pretty astounding how a hurricane in the Western Caribbean in September could have issues with dry air entrainment but you can clearly see all of the dry, sinking air over the Yucatan on water vapor loop.

I still think that once Ian gets North of Cuba we're going to see a period of steady intensification, with a likely max intensity near 115-120kts. 

Every major model shreds this storm once it gets North of Tampa so assuming that the center passes at least 50 miles offshore at Tampa's latitude, biggest story might be inland flooding in the Southern Appalachians. 

I know a lot of people that canceled Disney plans for this coming week and I kept telling them that the average track error at day 5 is more than 150 miles. If the HWRF/GFS camp end up being more correct, Central FL might not see much impacts at all.

Tampa is about the latitude where conditions are going to become rapidly unfavorable to maintain a strong hurricane.  Intensity will fall off quickly north of Tampa Latitude - especially with very slow movement.  Satellite presentation is going to degrade quickly once past about 28N.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's pretty astounding how a hurricane in the Western Caribbean in September could have issues with dry air entrainment but you can clearly see all of the dry, sinking air on water vapor loop.

I still think that once Ian gets North of Cuba we're going to see a period of steady intensification, with a likely max intensity near 115-120kts. 

Every major model shreds this storm once it gets North of Tampa so assuming that the center passes at least 50 miles offshore at Tampa's latitude, biggest story might be inland flooding in the Southern Appalachians. 

I know a lot of people that canceled Disney plans for this coming week and I kept telling them that the average track error at day 5 is more than 150 miles. If the HWRF/GFS camp end up being more correct, Central FL might not see much impacts at all.

If there were ever a season to pull that off....

[CoastalWx]

Guidance did have some drier air 500-300mb in NW side, but outflow looks real good and doesn't show that tell tale sign of something may be wrong quite yet. Guidance is real bullish on RI...but for the time being drier air gives me a little pause.

[MattPetrulli]

Recon a decent ways away from the center and still getting TS force SFMRs

[Intensewind002]

Is there any off chance that Ian could not make it to major hurricane status? If so how would that effect the storms future track?

[Chinook]

western Caribbean composite radar

 

[eyes2theskies]

Do I have this right? Stronger cane more south and east or vice versus?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Is there any off chance that Ian could not make it to major hurricane status? If so how would that effect the storms future track?

I’m sure there is…he’s been struggling from the start.  

[MattPetrulli]

12z GFS maybe a tad east, but stronger and bigger