Hurricane Ian

[Floydbuster]

 

Hole punch coming soon.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

6z Euro appears to shift west

Yep, I think largely due to initializing stronger. Pretty close to the GFS track, maybe a little quicker 

[TPAwx]

[Floydbuster]

Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay. 

[SnoSki14]

Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida.

And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Nice core.

[KChuck]

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One bit of good news for Tampa is the new moon was yesterday 

When the moon is at its full or new moon phase, high tides are at their highest, while low tides are lower than usual. Called spring tides, these tides occur when the sun, moon and the Earth all line up. Quoting eather Mike post 17 minutes after yours:

17 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

High Tide of 3ft around 2-3am on the 29th which if it holds up is when Ian will be the closest to the greater Tampa area. Not good considering all the surge and wind on top of that. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida.

And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida 

Storm Surge?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida.

And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida 

Spare Florida of major wind damage, which isn't the primary threat, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Storm Surge?

If anything, a system crawling has more time to build the fetch and then you add excessive freshwater flooding from 20"+ RF.

[ILoveWinter]

31 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You can tell from radar that banding is rapidly improving and core is tightening. Nothing to slow intensification until it hits Cuba early tomorrow. 

Obviously track is going to be critical for potential US impacts. further west is best case, as you get minimal surge into Tampa Bay and you probably have a weakening Cat 1 at best when it gets to the panhandle. 

True that a western track is better but considering that this will stall out around the Tampa latitude just makes it a slightly "less bad" outcome for them as a result of storm surge

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Spare Florida of major wind damage, which isn't the primary threat, anyway.

A track that far west would mitigate the surge/rain impacts but it also depends on how large the system is. 

[TPAwx]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida.

And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida 

Yeah the winds should be less of an issue whilst we launch the kayaks from our roof.

[OSUmetstud]

ECMWF is way too far west to maximize storm surge for western Florida. The peninsula is only in minimal TS winds with that track. 

[A-L-E-K]

east or bust

[hawkeye_wx]

Regarding storm surge in Tampa Bay, how much of a difference would it make if Ian's center is 50 miles offshore vs 100 miles offshore?

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

east or bust

 

This is a case where as a forecaster part of you of wants this to make landfall because otherwise you evacuate a city of millions of people and then they just criticize your "bad" forecast 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[SnoSki14]

I think the 12z has to confirm the 06z Euro first because it could've been a fluke run. 

[OSUmetstud]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I think initial runs of the GFS were obviously too deep in the short term which caused the storm track more toward the Loop current as opposed to over western Cuba. Now that the storm is actually deepening, the ECMWF has been too weak and slow to come around. 

[ldub23]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anything, a system crawling has more time to build the fetch and then you add excessive freshwater flooding from 20"+ RF.

I will have to disagree. Its going to be crawling into a  very  very  cool stable airmass. The weakening  is going to be dramatic. If  it does  landfall in the  pnahandle this seems reasonable. Most  likely a high end tropical storm but as we know when a storm is falling apart it  has a  very  hard time transporting wind to the  surface. Very  likely devoid  of  convection with a winterlike rain shield to its  north. Whatever sustained wind the  NHC claims  it  has at  landfall will not  come  close to be seen on land.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If anything, a system crawling has more time to build the fetch and then you add excessive freshwater flooding from 20"+ RF.

Exactly. This is similar to what we saw with Katrina and more recently Fiona. When a storm is moving the same direction for an extended period of time, you have captured fetch. Where the storm caries with it, it’s enhanced sea state.
And it’s moving over the warmest waters in the basin currently. We may have a true beast on our hands this time tomorrow


.

[Superstorm93]

[HKY_WX]

Starting to think forward speed will determine if it makes landfall near TB or drifts further north towards the big bend as a weaker cane. If it's a little quicker/stronger it will likely feel the influence of the departing trough a bit more and keep enough forward speed to make landfall on a NNE/NE track (Likely TB area or south). If it slows down it will likely bounce around offshore for a while and eventually drift north into the Big Bend area until it's re-accelerated by the 2nd trough/westerlies. IMO this is probably Tampa Bay and south... or bust (at least in the Public/Media's eye).

[cptcatz]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I will have to disagree. Its going to be crawling into a  very  very  cool stable airmass. The weakening  is going to be dramatic. If  it does  landfall in the  pnahandle this seems reasonable. Most  likely a high end tropical storm but as we know when a storm is falling apart it  has a  very  hard time transporting wind to the  surface. Very  likely devoid  of  convection with a winterlike rain shield to its  north.

 

It will still have huge surge though. Surge isn't correlated with the intensity at landfall but is a function of the size, intensity, and time over water of the entire history of the storm. All the water that the storm was pushing out in front of it will still be there. Similar situation as Sandy which was a massive storm over water for a very long time and even though it made landfall with only cat 1 winds, those other factors caused 14 foot storm surges.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 13:14Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 34 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 12:44:32Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.79N 82.48W
B. Center Fix Location: 80 statute miles (129 km) to the WSW (245°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 60° at 8kts (From the ENE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character (Undecoded): OPEN NW NE
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix at 12:38:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 56kts (From the NNW at 64.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix at 12:37:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 60kts (69.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 12:50:24Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 137° at 72kts (From the SE at 82.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 12:51:39Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,457m (8,061ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (93°) from the flight level center at 11:20:34Z

[Santa Clause]

Wow euro would be ideal and spare us from major damage. Hoping for a western solution and it dying out quickly in air mass over northern gulf.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

OTWH, Euro ensemble eyeball mean is towards TPA, OTOH it has initialized as a weak system and the ones that head further N towards the shear and dry air are the stronger members

[TradeWinds]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

HMON looks like it is doing as well as GFS and better at 72 hrs. Interesting that the tracks for several days were consistent with GFS to panhandle/big bend and jumped way south at 6z (TPA to Jax).

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

HMON looks like it is doing as well as GFS and better at 72 hrs. Interesting that the tracks for several days were consistent with GFS to panhandle/big bend and jumped way south at 6z (TPA to Jax).

With all the grief it gets, the GFS has done fairly well given the track chaos thus far.