Hurricane Ian

[CIK62]

HWRF and HMON are virtually identical and not that spectacular upon landfall.      Further weakening is quick.

[Santa Clause]

This weakening seems to be on all models.

[WEATHER53]

It may be posted  already but please let me see any graphics that show the east coast to mid Atlantic move  Ian is supposed to make. 

[Prospero]

Better a Major coming at you and weakening into a TS than a TS suddenly becoming a Major at landfall.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That's likely if it moves that slowly and when also considering the much lower dewpoint air mixing in from the big high to the north. The biggest concern for especially NE FL and far SE GA with that is the potential for major flooding from rains though hopefully enough of the drier air from the Canadian high mixes in to keep rain totals down somewhat.

Actually, I would think there would be a lot of overrunning rains tropical air being forced up and over the cooler drier air coming down from the northeast especially if the trailing cold front is still down there.  Flooding is a huge threat.

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Better a Major coming at you and weakening into a TS than a TS suddenly becoming a Major at landfall.

 

Not necessarily. Surge would be worse in the first scenario. Look at the difference between Katrina and Ida.

[Weather Mike]

56 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not wavering at all.  Be wary on intensity though.  Intensity still holy grail of hurricane forecasting.  Conditions on that track would be favorable for something stronger.  Not saying EURO is wrong but there is upside potential on a track coming in around or south of Tampa.

Fact that EURO is not wavering for several runs now has to lead to higher confidence for landfall west coast of FL vs. Panhandle. 

Intensity is bigger question in my mind on a track like EURO is showing.

12Z JMA looks very similar to 12Z Euro 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Actually, I would think there would be a lot of overrunning rains tropical air being forced up and over the cooler drier air coming down from the especially if the trailing cold front is still down there.  Flooding is a huge threat.

I agree. Indeed, flooding, especially Brunswick south into much of FL where the higher dewpoint air looks to be, is a huge threat as of now. I'm just saying that the lower the dewpoints can get from the dry Canadian high to the north, the lower the potential for extreme rainfall amounts due to lower PWATs since there's a strong correlation between heavier rainfall potential and higher dewpoint air. I'm thinking mainly about north of FL, where the lower dewpoints would have a higher chance to mix in better.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

19 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

This weakening seems to be on all models.

I don't see a major drop if it can landfall before the dry air reaches the core, which isn't a rapid process per Derek Ortt's MS thesis if shear is low.  Shear near landfall If near TPA) isn't terrible.  Loop TT Euro PWAT and 250 mb wind forecasts.

[Hotair]

Crap! Euro really wants to end Tampa’s streak of cane free seasons. 
my South Tampa home will be under water if Ian does anything remotely like this model insists on. 

[TPAwx]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Crap! Euro really wants to end Tampa’s streak of cane free seasons. 
my South Tampa home will be under water if Ian does anything remotely like this model insists on. 

Yeah we are at risk of property loss except what fits in the cars.

Still high uncertainty with the track and intensity at this stage, could easily miss to the south.

[Prospero]

22 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Not necessarily. Surge would be worse in the first scenario. Look at the difference between Katrina and Ida.

Either way I suspect Tampa Bay will mostly be surprised and shaken if one of these being in the cone of a big Hurricane ever actually hits us. Granted we were relieved when Irma went in south, but it was a hard few weeks after anyways even with the near miss.

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Still high uncertainty with the track and intensity at this stage, could easily miss to the south.

Were you reading my mind or was I reading yours when we posted at the same time! LOL

"Granted we were relieved when Irma went in south, but it was a hard few weeks after anyways even with the near miss. "

[olafminesaw]

Euro ens  north of the OP, with a cluster into Panama City. Still, a tight cluster right around the OP as well

[jlauderdal]

HWRF and HMON are virtually identical and not that spectacular upon landfall.      Further weakening is quick.

Throw those out, this system will be south and east. This system will come in stronger than those runs.

[Hotair]

Noru in the Pacific just experienced a 50 mph to 155 mph RI over 24 hours in similar temperature waters.  Let’s hope Ian is not trying to one up that storm. 

[tiger_deF]

Ian's structure is improving, but it looks absolutely terrible on IR (considering it was forecasted to be near hurricane strength by now)

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ian's structure is improving, but it looks absolutely terrible on IR (considering it was forecasted to be near hurricane strength by now)

It's funny how we see this happen so much over the last coupel years or so.

But if it was heading into the Yucatan, we'd see the most beautiful crystal clears eyes. Or maybe if was less than 70 miles from western Louisiana.

[bdgwx]

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

 

[Weather Mike]

51 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Crap! Euro really wants to end Tampa’s streak of cane free seasons. 
my South Tampa home will be under water if Ian does anything remotely like this model insists on. 

Yea my home in Sunset Park will have fish swimming down the street

[Weather Mike]

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

 

not sure how that can be that west when Euro and UKMET are east and the GFS shifted east just now towards Tally so not sure I am buying too much into that based on the 12Z Euro and UKMET

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

not sure how that can be that west when Euro and UKMET are east and the GFS shifted east just now towards Tally so not sure I am buying too much into that based on the 12Z Euro and UKMET

Ensembles, not operationals

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ian's structure is improving, but it looks absolutely terrible on IR (considering it was forecasted to be near hurricane strength by now)

Have to agree.  Was expecting better looking than this by Sunday evening.  Overall structure looking better on last visible pictures of the day.  Outflow only restricted on the western side.  No organization to the convection but it is trying hard.   Based on 12Z guidance would expect TPC 5 pm advisory to leave cone in place from 11am.  If any adjustment I think it would be slightly to the right in a nod to the persistent UKMET and especially EURO that have really not budged.  Intensity forecast should also likely stay the same or perhaps come down a notch. Most of the latest guidance still has Ian peaking in the 125 to 140 mph before weakening as it approaches landfall.

[Hotair]

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

 

Recon data since these models first initialized shows storm moved further to the North than forecasted. I suspect the more western models will continue to creep eastwardly as new runs kick off. 

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ensembles, not operationals

you are correct 

thanks 

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

you are correct 

thanks 

So one is shifting east, the other shifting west??

"Ensembles, not operationals"

[Hotair]

An eye could be forming ? 4:25 recon 

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

An eye could be forming ? 4:25 recon 

Look at IR. Just a bunch of warm convection sloshing around. We will likely have to wait until after sunset to get something going near the center. 

This one has certainly been an interesting case to show how delicate some of these weak systems can be to sneaky dry air and stability. 

[Amped]

 

GFS intensity forecast was not great.

[Eskimo Joe]