Normandy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I was definitely on the RI train last night...fooled me for sure. That being said, looking at it now the low level center seems very defined (which it wasn't yesterday despite good convection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I like this hypothesis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ^That's a good thread right there thanks for sharing. Perhaps the multiple vorticies yesterday brought the dry air in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Given the large uncertainty in LF track it appears many Florida coastal communities (in South and Southwest) are choosing to delay preparations. Residents there are not getting too focused yet on securing their property/ getting storm ready. I hope this does not mean that by the time the LF track is locked in to a few counties we have inclement weather upon us that discourages those folks from evacuating and getting the supplies they will need to mitigate flooding/wind damage and loss of utilities etc. latest recon fix for Ian: New recon fix for AF301 0909A IAN @ 2022-09-25 13:16:00 UTC: Lat/Lon 15.06,-79.66, MSLP 1005 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Perhaps soon we can see some RI motivation. From @WxAtom The most recent passes from both our recon planes (at 925mb and 700mb in pressure) seem to suggest Tropical Storm Ian has properly stacked it’s centers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Normandy said: ^That's a good thread right there thanks for sharing. Perhaps the multiple vorticies yesterday brought the dry air in? That's certainly possible. Also, I believe most thought that Ian would be a more "closed" system (literally and figuratively) by now, so some dry air/subsidence makes sense at the moment. Could change in a hurry if we see deep convection pop over that center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning. Surprised by lack of organized convection. First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector. Shear is light and water is warm. Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve. Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see. Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall. Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period. Interesting overall situation to watch unfold. Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward. Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play. No real cut answers this morning. Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall. Interesting to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1005mb? They might be generous calling this a tropical storm. Unless it takes a hard right and hits south of Tampa it will come in as a tropical storm with no sustained tropical storm winds on land. If it hits south of Tampa i predict it will come in at 105knots. Panhandle 50 knots 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Was RI/significant strengthening ever forecast prior to today? I don't remember seeing that anywhere. 11 pm last night was 50 to 80 knots in 24 hours. Halfway through that 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning. Surprised by lack of organized convection. First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector. Shear is light and water is warm. Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve. Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see. Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall. Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period. Interesting overall situation to watch unfold. Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward. Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play. No real cut answers this morning. Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall. Interesting to watch it unfold. Euro, ICON and UKMET has been steadfast against the GFS and all the others that head it up the panhandle. Will be interesting to see what unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Sure looks like it’s still heading due west, not NW like forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Euro, ICON and UKMET has been steadfast against the GFS and all the others that head it up the panhandle. Will be interesting to see what unfolds. Euro drops below 1000 mb about the latitude of Jamaica. GFS is 985 at that point. I hadn't seen intensity on UK or ICON. Seems GFS continues to underperform on short term intensity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Sure looks like it’s still heading due west, not NW like forecasted I wondered last night what happens if Ian doesn't clear CA and never reemerges in the Atlantic Basin. Board reaction would be interesting. Edit- recon is WNW, which was last advisory direction. Pressure is rising though per TT recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I'm curious why everyone thinks Ian is less organized today than yesterday. Recon found an actual defined low level center which wasn't present yesterday so the structure is significantly better than it was. All the convection in the world doesn't mean anything if the structure isn't there to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1001mb at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa… Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 No change in TPC forecast cone with 11am advisory. They did drop peak intensity from 120 kts. to 115 kts. not really a notable change. They note changes in the day 3-5 track will "likely" require adjustments. Landfall location will make a big difference in landfall intensity. Further south stronger or central / eastern panhandle a weaker system at landfall. EURO / UKMET have been solid on taking Ian into west coast FL. We'll see how 12Z runs today evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12Z ICON hour 51 ~50 miles NE of 6Z at 57, which implies to me a further south landfall on FL vs prior run, which went just west of Tampa and then had landfall north of there, which would be potentially a really bad scenario for Tampa. Perhaps this run will landfall south of there, which wouldn't be nearly as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point.It's not even just any member. Granted, the ECMWF may come back west, but there is a notable concern for more track adjustments if it does not. We do not even yet have a well established stacked TC to feel deep layer steering as intensification modeling is behind schedule, so plenty of unknowns remain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Honestly, I know the circulation is aligned and all and gradual intensification is occurring. But man given the favorable conditions Ian looks like trash currently lol. I fully expect that to change today but man it looks like crap right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I think we see a moderate shift to the east at 5pm looks like the euro scenario is starting to play out more so than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12Z ICON 102 near Daytona Beach vs 6Z's 108 still near west coast north of Tampa. This run earlier passed just SE of Tampa Bay vs north of there on the 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 While waiting for the 12z suite, here’s a good review of TB risk factors and scenarios https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1573736400196960258 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 23 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Shrimp incoming in 6-12 hours Found the weenie I do feel like when the NHC calls for RI, they're usually right. Delayed, but probably not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa… People are just following real time obs and trends. It's called weather forecasting. And the cluster has moved east, probably because models are trending faster. Might not pan out but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, FL, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs. Yeah even though it's the icon there is still a very small that the icon and the ukmet and some eps members still float the slim chance this goes off the east coast of Florida or just along the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 One thing about specialized hurricane models, they are all initialized and bounded by the GFS. HWRF and HMON have a large outer grid, they should have some independence, unless the GFS is somehow poorly initialized. If it is GFS and GFS initialized models against the world, the world is probably correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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