GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Regarding the 18Z EPS 144, I don't see much change vs 12Z EPS 150 other than perhaps the spread being a little narrower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Recon heading out of Virgin Islands, could be a very interesting mission with RI starting. Track at this link Structure looks perfect for this thing to go nuclear. And if it does that tonight, I think it could be a Wilma situation for Florida. The earlier the storm gets deeper, the more east it will go 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian looks perfect. The environment looks incredible. I expect a hurricane by 11am tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 1:55 AM, turtlehurricane said: Recon heading out of Virgin Islands, could be a very interesting mission with RI starting. Track at this link Structure looks perfect for this thing to go nuclear. And if it does that tonight, I think it could be a Wilma situation for Florida. The earlier the storm gets deeper, the more east it will go Expand Not much evidence that RI is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 2:04 AM, MUWX said: Not much evidence that RI is starting. Expand correct, not the classic definition of RI where an eyewall wraps around the center. However, partial eyewall formation likely beginning and the establishment of sustained deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 2:14 AM, turtlehurricane said: correct, not the classic definition of RI where an eyewall wraps around the center. However, partial eyewall formation likely beginning and the establishment of sustained deep convection. Expand In addition, when looking at satellite loops the outflow is improving at a rapid pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The intersection of the HR144 1σ rings from GEFS, EPS, and MOGREPS has landfall near Cedar Key, FL north of Tampa. This blend of the global ensembles is consistent with the 8pm OFCL track. One interesting aspect here is that MOGREPS takes a western track early and then takes a sharper turn to the NE than the GEFS and EPS. It appears there is a slight tick east relative to the 12Z cycle with the passage through the Yucatan Channel and clipping Cuba on this cycle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 2:09 AM, StantonParkHoya said: Expand Winning by 40 km without a defined center on one storm over 2 days falls into the margin of luck. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just back from the Battle for the Bayou Bucket, and I expected more from the IR satellite, honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Wow I'm stunned that the NHC is forecasting a drop from a Category 4 all the way to a Category 1 before landfall. Even Frances maintained Category 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 New cone goes slightly westward, peak intensity raised to 140 mph, however from Wednesday Night to Thursday Night, the intensity goes from 130 mph to 90 mph. Anticipating very rapid weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:08 AM, Floydbuster said: Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane. Expand Which probably means its wrong given models terrible performance in general with tropical cyclone intensity lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:12 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Which probably means its wrong given models terrible performance in general with tropical cyclone intensity lol Expand I remember the models showing Ivan weakening in the Gulf and we waited and waited and waited. It came ashore with 120 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:13 AM, Floydbuster said: I remember the models showing Ivan weakening in the Gulf and we waited and waited and waited. It came ashore with 120 mph winds. Expand It definitely was weakening to some degree because many areas did not see those winds mix down which tends to be a sign of a weakening storm but usually you can be sure if models, even the HWRF/HMON show crazy weakening or strengthening it tends to be overdone both ways most of the time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Really curious about how surge impacts are communicated by NHC. Not too familiar with surge forecasting, but the Big Bend area and west coast of Florida are very surge prone. This, along with discrepancies about the size of the storm on models create for an interesting situation. Me thinks this will be a big surge event, but I am somewhat ignorant to surge forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 2:59 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Just back from the Battle for the Bayou Bucket, and I expected more from the IR satellite, honestly. Expand Same here tbh. Everyone is acting like it is really starting to look good and I'm very unimpressed. I don't see anything that screams this is about to take off anytime soon. Really curious if this rapid weakening prior to landfall will come to fruition or if a much stronger storm will landfall and catch people off guard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:26 AM, StormChaser4Life said: Same here tbh. Everyone is acting like it is really starting to look good and I'm very unimpressed. I don't see anything that screams this is about to take off anytime soon. Expand Can change quick, but looks very disorganized at the moment. Weird given the parameters. Probably will change during the night, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:29 AM, MattPetrulli said: Can change quick, but looks very disorganized at the moment. Weird given the parameters. Probably will change during the night, however. Expand Thinking that dry air earlier I talked about may be part of the issue. Seems like a lot of the convection towards the west part of circulation just collapsed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 3:26 AM, StormChaser4Life said: Same here tbh. Everyone is acting like it is really starting to look good and I'm very unimpressed. I don't see anything that screams this is about to take off anytime soon. Expand The mid-level swirl from earlier convection is making it look better than it is. So far this evening the convection has been ok, but nothing impressive. Maybe it will blow up more overnight. Recon will be in there shortly to try to find a surface center. It's possible recon will find nothing more than a weak mess like this morning. We'll know in a couple hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS at 60 about 6 hrs faster than 18z and a little weaker as it crosses near Cuba. Slightly more east but not much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The last local hurricane decades ago, while large, was never more than a Cat 2 in the Gulf, and produced a significant surge. Weakening from 115 kt to 80 kt just before landfall, with NHC suggesting a large circulation, into a concave shaped coastline, would, to me, suggest a big surge. If it plays out by NHC forecast. I guess it could be a 70 knot hurricane this time tomorrow. But 45 knots now looks generous based on satellite and recon. CIMSS ADT suggests higher than eyeballing IR and recon, so I could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0Z GFS 114 very close to 18Z GFS 120 and not quite as strong in N GOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 CMC is east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 4:10 AM, CamSE-Wx said: 0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run Expand Can you please post link to where you get cmc runs this early. Or at least pic of new forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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