Hurricane Ian

[bdgwx]

I should add that the intersection of the 3 HR72 1σ rings (GEFS, EPS, MOGREPS) places Ian on a path through the uprights of the Yucatan Channel albeit on the eastern side.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Farther west and stronger is way to go i think. 

Classic gulf storm. West trend.

[CampergirlFL]

City of Tampa is now offering sandbags


.

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Just as the models shift west 

It's reasonable if a landfall in the big bend were to occur, Tampa still gets coastal flooding. Very surge prone area.

[Hotair]

TEAL 72 is now headed back to base. The NOAA G-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance flight ahead of Ian.  NOAA 43 is next on deck. They are scheduled to depart shortly at 5 pm EDT / 2100 UTC.  This looks to be a 24/7 operation from here on out.  

[dan11295]

Seems like all the intensity forecasts peak around 96 hours then weaken Ian dramatically once it gets into the northern Gulf. Lili may very well be a good analog, just not that far west.

[Hotair]

6 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

City of Tampa is now offering sandbags


.

TAMPA FL: City of Tampa is offering sandbags daily from 9AM-6PM starting tomorrow 9/25 at Himes Ave Complex, Al Barnes Park & MacFarlane Park. Please bring proof of City of Tampa residence. Limit of 10 bags. 

[Hotair]

606 
WTNT34 KNHC 241752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane 
Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the 
Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and 
Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is 
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday 
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass 
near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then 
approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday
when it approaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by 
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday 
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday, 
and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.  

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14
inches

Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Hotair]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 242056
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The
associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization,
and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone
based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible
satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals
greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum
pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of
these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly
west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain
265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday
before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or
over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models
continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is
still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even
among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.
Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering
flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be
over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast
is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be
needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few
days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater
than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure
of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core,
rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII
probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66
percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and
it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday
before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN
and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher
than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major
hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and approaches Florida. Environmental conditions could become less
favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with
the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a large
and powerful hurricane through the period.


Key Messages:

1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

2.  Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3.  Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher
than usual.  Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 14.3N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 14.6N  78.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 15.7N  80.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.4N  82.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 19.2N  83.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 20.9N  84.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 23.1N  85.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 26.2N  84.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 28.7N  83.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[TPAwx]

Sandbags would be a nice aquarium feature for my yard with the Euro//UK solutions. 

[Hotair]

Cat 4 intensity would be absolutely brutal anywhere along Florida West coast

[Hotair]

[SnowGoose69]

A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage 

[Hoosier]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage 

Agree... the forecast takes it from low end cat 4 to cat 2 at the endpoint.  That scenario is within the realm of possibility as others have been discussing why, but there's a real chance of having to raise it upward on subsequent forecasts. 

[TradeWinds]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage 

So you want them to fake a forecast?

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A bit surprised they took it all the way down to 90kts at the end, tendency in recent years has been away from that, even if models suggest it because it can lead the public to think the storm is not as much a threat in the whole relativity idea if it was a strong Cat 4 at one stage 

IMO, better to keep it as a Cat 2 leading up to landfall and up the forecast instead of yanking it back.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

So you want then to fake a forecast?

Not fake it, but it's a little hard to imagine it dropping from 130 mph to 105 mph, especially on that forecast path.  The implication is actually for even weaker at landfall as the last forecast point is still a decent distance from the coast.

[TradeWinds]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not fake it, but it's a little hard to imagine it dropping from 130 mph to 105 mph, especially on that forecast path.  The implication is actually for even weaker at landfall as the last forecast point is still a decent distance from the coast.

Lows in Northern Florida are near 60F early this week. The dry air is real up there. 

[Amped]

Hard to buy the far west tracks with the strong SW shear.   Upper winds sometimes end up steering the storm more than modeled. There should be a NE drift once it gets into the Gulf induced by the upper winds and the front to the NE.   This is pretty much what the UKMET ICON and Euro are showing.  

[Normandy]

^ Cosign.  If the upper level winds are strong enough to shear a strong hurricane, why wouldn't they be strong enough to turn it NE?  I could understand the solution if the storm was a middling TS (maybe it could get decoupled).....it just doesn't make sense in this scenario with a major hurricane coming out of the WCAR.  Would like a mets input, maybe I am out to lunch.

[eyes2theskies]

Looking at some of the temps in spots further north shows that this is a pretty strong front

[Hoosier]

They have it covering almost as much distance between the Wed and Thu forecast points as they do from 2 pm Tue to 2 pm Wed.  If it's moving at that speed on this path, the magnitude of weakening that is depicted doesn't make a lot of sense imo.

[CIK62]

More Tallahassee  than Tampa on this run:

[GaWx]

Right shift on 18Z ICON vs 12Z with Ft Myers to Daytona track

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Right shift on 18Z ICON vs 12Z with Ft Myers to Daytona track

It’s sitting in Daytona and not even raining in charleston 

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Right shift on 18Z ICON vs 12Z with Ft Myers to Daytona track

I would think, at this point that is the outlier?

[MattPetrulli]

 

Also curious to see if new center relocation to the north will affect track discrepancies at all. 

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS going in at Panama City, very slight tick east

[Kevin Reilly]

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s sitting in Daytona and not even raining in charleston 

Blocking area of high pressure with lots of dry air to the north I am sure.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Something I'm noticing in every new model run that comes in Ian is actually holding its intensity longer on these north and west tracks. Last night some of the models were ripping apart Ian and causing him to weaken almost to a TS on landfall. Model runs today are relaxing on the shear and dry air near the coast. Definitely not a good trend IMO.