Hurricane Ian

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

NO you are not

See what you think 24 hours from now.  That is when it is and was expected to be more rapidly organizing.  Development prior to tomorrow morning was expected to be slow.

[Hotair]

Visual sat imagery shows Ian is expanding its outflows along all quadrants.  

[eyes2theskies]

Can’t wait to see what the models do with the gulf stream data 

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

See what you think 24 hours from now.  That is when it is and was expected to be more rapidly organizing.  Development prior to tomorrow morning was expected to be slow.

Very warm waters with little or no shear = this storm is going to blow up. IMO the only thing that can remotely slow it down is a direct hit with Cuba and most of the guidance thus far does not show a direct hit. So when I said  " no you are not " I was agreeing. Now back to Ian

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Very warm waters with little or no shear = this storm is going to blow up. IMO the only thing that can remotely slow it down is a direct hit with Cuba and most of the guidance thus far does not show a direct hit. So when I said  " no you are not " I was agreeing. Now back to Ian

Sorry, I didn't mean anything negative by my post.  Was just pointing out in a round about way I guess,  that things seemed to be going according to plan as far as Ian pulling together.  Apologies.

[Hotair]

Ian track takes it over seas with ocean heat content of 140-200 kJ/cm2 in the Caribbean Sea, Yucatán Channel & eastern Gulf of Mexico. Values in excess of 100 kJ/cm2 lend support to rapid intensification of hurricanes.  
 

in the absence of excessive shear or dry air,  RI is almost assured. 

[MattPetrulli]

Something of note, a big bend landfall would probably be best case scenario here. Small storm may limit surge into major west coast cities, and big bend is pretty unpopulated. Also, may be a weakening hurricane rather than a strengthening one. Atm I would favor a landfall just north of Tampa however

[Hotair]

It is getting prettier. As of 11:29
 

 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

It is getting prettier. As of 11:29
 

 

Shrimp incoming in 6-12 hours

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS is so far west it doesn't even track the center over Cuba anymore.... goes through the Yucatan channel, out into the open gulf, where it will certainly miss the trough and slow way down.

[BuffaloWeather]

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is so far west it doesn't even track the center over Cuba anymore.... goes through the Yucatan channel, out into the open gulf, where it will certainly miss the trough and slow way down.

Probably strong enough though that it will still be a significant impact.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS is powerful up through the halfway point in the gulf, but at that point a big dump of dry air is about to crash down into the northern gulf region.  Expect significant weakening.

[Seminole]

37 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Something of note, a big bend landfall would probably be best case scenario here. Small storm may limit surge into major west coast cities, and big bend is pretty unpopulated. Also, may be a weakening hurricane rather than a strengthening one. Atm I would favor a landfall just north of Tampa however

As someone who lives in the Big Bend and on barrier island I do not share this sediment. 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, Seminole said:

As someone who lives in the Big Bend and on barrier island I do not share this sediment. 

[Hotair]

Philippe Papin 

@NWSNHC

 

The TDR data from @NOAA_HurrHunter  P3 is very useful for diagnosing TC #Ian's structure. Center tilt b/w 1-km to 6-km is SW, but tilts back N at 10km. Neat to see how tilt evolves w/ height
Even though shear has lowered, structure not ready for significant deepening yet.

[hawkeye_wx]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is powerful up through the halfway point in the gulf, but at that point a big dump of dry air is about to crash down into the northern gulf region.  Expect significant weakening.

Yep.  The dry air gets pulled into the circulation and chokes the storm.  It hits the Florida peninsula over 50 mb weaker than it was over the central gulf.

[MattPetrulli]

12z GFS may be a Hurricane Dennis like scenario of a weakening, but major hurricane affecting that area. Still would have significant impacts. 

[TPAwx]

Great to see west and weaker trending, relative to previous solutions.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yep.  The dry air gets pulled into the circulation and chokes the storm.  It hits the Florida peninsula over 50 mb weaker than it was over the central gulf.

If it keeps trending SW however it may avoid the massive dry air entrainment 

[eyewall]

I just think it is all over the place until this system gets better organized. All it would take is one center re-location under the convection to throw off these model runs. Still a lot of shifting to come I think.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: strongest run yet and SW of prior run with LF near Tampa area:

TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N  74.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.09.2022    0  14.7N  74.5W     1007            26
    0000UTC 25.09.2022   12  14.2N  77.0W     1005            25
    1200UTC 25.09.2022   24  14.9N  79.2W     1004            27
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   36  15.4N  81.4W     1003            25
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   48  17.0N  82.8W     1002            30
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   60  18.9N  84.2W     1001            30
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   72  20.9N  85.1W      998            34
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   84  23.0N  85.6W      996            42
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   96  24.5N  85.8W      994            42
    0000UTC 29.09.2022  108  25.6N  85.1W      993            51
    1200UTC 29.09.2022  120  26.6N  84.1W      991            55
    0000UTC 30.09.2022  132  27.0N  83.2W      986            54
    1200UTC 30.09.2022  144  28.3N  82.5W      987            47

[MattPetrulli]

Something of note also, GFS trending a little lesser with the dry air the more west it goes

[olafminesaw]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Something of note also, GFS trending a little lesser with the dry air the more west it goes

Looks like a classic setup for flooding for somewhere in the SE

[hawkeye_wx]

9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Something of note also, GFS trending a little lesser with the dry air the more west it goes

Yeah, but look at what happens once the dry air gets pulled all the way around the storm.  By the time it hits land the core is gone... totally dried out.

[Hotair]

Battle of the models.  I’m of course rooting for GFS westerly /weaker track 

but ECMWF still had Ian crushing SW Florida 

[StantonParkHoya]

12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL

[NavarreDon]

12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL

Looks like Destin FL off of tidbits to me.


.

[Hotair]

I’m not ready to place lots of faith in any of the models just yet.  The last Recon data we got showed Ian was still a broad, messy system that wasn't vertically stacked and had multiple competing centers.

we should be getting new recon data in the next hour or so that may reveal if a dominant center has established.  At that point, models can be fed with more reliable initial conditions. Thoughts? 

[NeffsvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’m not ready to place lots of faith in any of the models just yet.  The last Recon data we got showed Ian was still a broad, messy system that wasn't vertically stacked and had multiple competing centers.

we should be getting new recon data in the next hour or so that may reveal if a dominant center has established.  At that point, models can be fed with more reliable initial conditions. Thoughts? 

I think you’re on the right track.

 

Until Ian gets a bit better organized, track accuracy is going to suffer significantly.