Hurricane Ian

[CampergirlFL]

Well that red line is through my backyard


.

[wawayanda]

 

[ldub23]

8 minutes ago, wawayanda said:

 

At this  point the  further NW the  better. Assuming thats  945 mb my guess  is  it would  be  1000mb or higher at  landfall.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now.  Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass.  Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic.  I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west. 

 

Alot may depend on the size of the storm too...a smaller storm entering the Gulf would be less likely to pull dry air in off the continent.  That said, in recent years most storms are large in size 

[Hotair]

Lots of variables here including how much interaction we see with Cuba’s Western end.     The more West it moves now the less opportunity for Cuba to disrupt it some.  Helps the SW coast of Florida, but perhaps means a stronger storm headed to the panhandle 

[NorthHillsWx]

Looking like this is trending slower and further west. NHC inching track in this direction.

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty much all guidance has this peaking about the latitude of Ft meyers. A LF north of there would likely be a weakling storm while somewhere near there would likely be a storm near peak intensity 

[Hotair]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Pretty much all guidance has this peaking about the latitude of Ft meyers. A LF north of there would likely be a weakling storm while somewhere near there would likely be a storm near peak intensity 

Cuba is not expecting it until Tuesday so we still have 4-5 days of tracking in front of us.  Even a TS headed directly into Tampa Bay would cause considerable flooding damage to the area.  Timing of LF and tide will be crucial here.  I guess my concern here in Tampa is not so much the winds (building codes here are good through CAT 2 ) but the flooding potential especially if it stalls in the vicinity. 
 

edit: just to vent, ridiculous that Hillsborough county in Tampa  has no plans to provide sandbags to residents.  Prior storms where we were well outside the cone, sand was made available.  Pretty disappointing. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The overnight convection that blew up west to well west of the center seems to have messed up the surface circulation a bit.  The center yesterday was up at 15ºN.  Now recon is finding a weak surface center way down at 13.2ºN.  All the convection is still nw to well nw of this weak center.  It will take a while to organize, despite the much less hostile shear environment it has moved into.  All those farther northeast Euro tracks had this organizing north of where it is now.

 

[TPAwx]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Cuba is not expecting it until Tuesday so we still have 4-5 days of tracking in front of us.  Even a TS headed directly into Tampa Bay would cause considerable flooding damage to the area.  Timing of LF and tide will be crucial here.  I guess my concern here in Tampa is not so much the winds (building codes here are good through CAT 2 ) but the flooding potential especially if it stalls in the vicinity. 
 

edit: just to vent, ridiculous that Hillsborough county in Tampa  has no plans to provide sandbags to residents.  Prior storms where we were well outside the cone, sand was made available.  Pretty disappointing. 

Always lots of focus on winds but yeah it’s mostly about the water here.  I had a 4ft surge IMBY from eroding TS Eta and the center was 45 miles offshore.  Of course with the heavy tree cover and vegetation here winds at TS or higher will leave a huge mess and power outages region-wide.  

[Hotair]

I like best how this graphic shows the slight Westward shift in guidance.  Clearly sucks for Tampa Bay but we can hope the trend continues  Dark line is the latest model track 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I like best how this graphic shows the slight Westward shift in guidance.  Clearly sucks for Tampa Bay but we can hope the trend continues  Dark line is the latest model track 

That's a great infographic. Where did you get this from?

[Hotair]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a great infographic. Where did you get this from?

@MJVentrice Put it up on his channel 

Edit: tool developed by @alanbrammer based on watermark

[Hotair]

Fun fact:  “I” is the most frequent storm name letter to be retired 

also, missing from most Hurricane readiness lists, but just as critical: 

cigarettes, cold beer, diesel fuel and cash 

When you have storm damage and need to lure someone with a chainsaw or a tarp to your property first, these are the essential bargaining chips. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Fun fact:  “I” is the most frequent storm name letter to be retired 

also, missing from most Hurricane readiness lists, but just as critical: 

cigarettes, cold beer, diesel fuel and cash 

When you have storm damage and need to lure someone with a chainsaw or a tarp to your property first, these are the essential bargaining chips. 

 

Someone on WxTwitter (perhaps it was @Ellinwood or @Ian) had linked to a history of all the "I" storms and their tracks. Can't find it, but it was rather neat.

[cptcatz]

Looks like convection is trying to wrap around a center at 14.5N 76W. That would be a full degree north of what recon found. 

[Eskimo Joe]

^you can see the outflow starting to get established based off the cirrus wisping out to the west and southwest.

[Superstorm93]

The only thing limiting the storm right now is the lack of an organized surface circulation. 

[Floydbuster]

Am I the only one who doesn't think it's that disorganized?

It's not expected to be a hurricane for 36-48 hours. With those waters, low shear and that impressive satellite presentation (even if the circulation is still getting better organized) it can become a hurricane in the blink of an eye.

I think it looks great compared to the tiny blob it was 12 hrs ago.

[Hotair]

9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The only thing limiting the storm right now is the lack of an organized surface circulation. 

Statistical probabilities for RI are all rather favorable.  See here  

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/

[eyes2theskies]

Will rapid intensification have any thing to do with track

[Hotair]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is 
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday 
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, 
pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the 
Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach 
western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few 
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday 
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday 
when it approaches western Cuba. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) 
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with 
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up 
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14 
inches

Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up 
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of 
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban 
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the 
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and 
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out 
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions. 

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[olafminesaw]

Seems like a pretty good analog:

 

 

[MANDA]

35 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The only thing limiting the storm right now is the lack of an organized surface circulation. 

You said it and once that pulls together this should be off and running.  Very favorable environment and very favorable water temps.

[TPAwx]

The NHC track forecast during this period has been 
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with 
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount 
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data 
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and 
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow 
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the 
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again 
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has 
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies 
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments 
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty 
in the day 3-5 period. 

[smokeybandit]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems like a pretty good analog:

 

 

That would be coincidence, not irony, but, impressive none the less.

[The Iceman]

Good

[Hotair]

[Brasiluvsnow]

30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Am I the only one who doesn't think it's that disorganized?

It's not expected to be a hurricane for 36-48 hours. With those waters, low shear and that impressive satellite presentation (even if the circulation is still getting better organized) it can become a hurricane in the blink of an eye.

I think it looks great compared to the tiny blob it was 12 hrs ago.

NO you are not

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Inching NW up the west coast of FL with forecast landfall.  Question is:   Is it done nudging NW?  This track verbatim is worst case for Tampa Bay area.  That track would maximize surge.  Can see an additional nudge or two in future advisories but would not expect landfall further west than 85W.  Said yesterday morning eastern FL panhandle to Keys was in play.  This morning I'd say landfall 50-100 miles either side of Tampa.  We'll see.  This track would also maximize intensity as long as it keeps moving at reasonable clip and does not start ingesting drier air.  This track also delays landfall to early Thursday.