Hurricane Ian

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Back over water at hr 138. 

Re-strengthening

[AChilders]

Pressure dropping on Euro at 144, high locked above, looks like its going for the 1-2 punch. 

[GaWx]

Euro 168 landfalls SC/NC border.

[MattPetrulli]

That's gonna be a fairly significant Carolinas hit

[dan11295]

There is really a fairly narrow area as far as location goes that would result in in a Major at US Landfall. Too far east there isn't enough time over the Caribbean water, longer time to cross Cuba, and limited time in the Florida Straits. Too far west into the central Gulf and dry air probably does a number on it. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Euro begins to phase with the eastern trough... a nasty storm for the Carolinas.  I don't think any of the other models are doing this, though.  If the hurricane is slower getting up there or the trough pulls out a bit faster, there won't be any phase or Carolina storm.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still think the Euro may be a tad too far east with its idea but that is a pretty bad track if this is a 3 or 4 

A split between the GFS and Euro would be bad news for the Tampa area.

[olafminesaw]

Yeah, obviously, that's a highly unlikely outcome. Has there ever been a storm that's made multiple landfalls in the US as a major? (excluding barrier islands etc.)

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, obviously, that's a highly unlikely outcome. Has there ever been a storm that's made multiple landfalls in the US as a major? (excluding barrier islands etc.)

Andrew

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, obviously, that's a highly unlikely outcome. Has there ever been a storm that's made multiple landfalls in the US as a major (excluding barrier islands etc.)

Andrew I guess is one example...I do not think there was one which hit FL from the Gulf though and then was a Cat 3 for NC/SC or New England...Donna may have been close 

[nwohweather]

Welp I’d say Charleston to Myrtle Beach needs to really watch this now. Definite beast

[madwx]

the convection is tugging the center of the gyre and it seems to be heading due west now.  Will have to keep an eye on how long it stays below 15 degrees.  Most of the models hold it around the latitude until Saturday evening.  

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, madwx said:

the convection is tugging the center of the gyre and it seems to be heading due west now.  Will have to keep an eye on how long it stays below 15 degrees.  Most of the models hold it around the latitude until Saturday evening.  

If it does I assume a further west track?

[madwx]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

If it does I assume a further west track?

There are some difference between how the GFS and Euro handle upper features beyond 48 hours, but staying around 15 N through tomorrow evening will give credence that a path somewhere between the GFS and Euro into the GOM is correct.

[MattPetrulli]

Something not talked about much, Havana and the Keys have a decent shot at sustaining a significant hurricane hit before moving towards main SW Florida, assuming a path further to the east is realized. 

[gymengineer]

This is a fairly obvious point, but it’s hard to get the landfall city nailed down in advance when you have a hurricane moving  northward (NNE or NNW) toward the west coast of the peninsula part of Florida…given the angles along the coastline. Both Charley and Irma were forecast to landfall significantly further north less than 24 hours before the actual landfall. If this storm is going to the panhandle instead, it’s an easier forecast. 

[ROOSTA]

The track and intensity are far ranging. Tracks have been getting better over the past decade, intensity not so much. 
Should take away the Globals are coming to a consensus. A placement off the SW coast of FL in the Gulf. GFS compared to the EURO in regards D5 and beyond handle the steering influences differently, M101

[Sn0waddict]

So pretty big GOM tracks on the 12z GEFS

 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

So pretty big GOM tracks on the 12z GEFS

 

Important observation is almost all of those are significant hits, different from the decaying tropical storm the 12z GFS provided

[gymengineer]

At 48 hours is where it splits for the GFS ensemble members. The northern tracks turn NW while the southern group continues WNW for one more day. 

[MattPetrulli]

18z Spaghettis go west

[eyes2theskies]

I think the nhc will keep the track the same splitting the gfs and the euro 

[wxeyeNH]

Best case (for those not wanting a strong storm) is for the core to stay far enough west of Florida and the storm slowing down considerably and weakening.  Lots of dry continental air could wrap in.  I don't see a strong trough yanking this northward up the east coast unlike what is happening now with Fiona. 

 

[Normandy]

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now.  Strong burst near the LLC with obvious strong NW and N inflow into the convection.  The MLC is dying off with nothing but westerlies beneath.

[Prospero]

I expect sand bags will be available here by this time tomorrow.

https://mygulfport.us/stormevent/

But so many times in the cone, even the day the storm hits and we enjoy the miss. But roulette has its odds...

[LeesburgWx]

Looks like this is about to be a big US impact event coming up from Florida into the southeast. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET 168 is ~100 miles WSW of Tampa heading NNE to NE. Extrapolating this would lean toward it coming ashore a little north of Tampa.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET 168 is ~100 miles WSW of Tampa heading NNE to NE. Extrapolating this would lean toward it coming ashore a little north of Tampa.

Worst case here. Tampa certainly looks in a precarious spot per latest models but still a long ways to go.

[jrips27]

12z EPS tracks thru 144

[MattPetrulli]

11 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now.  Strong burst near the LLC with obvious strong NW and N inflow into the convection.  The MLC is dying off with nothing but westerlies beneath.

Intense burst of convection too