Hurricane Ian

[Yanksfan]

7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

New run on the left 

Not only is there more trough interaction, but the WAR is stronger as well. If the Euro is correct, there’s a very good chance of a capture/ track up the eastern seaboard. Interesting times ahead.

[ldub23]

39 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I believe the Euro here is showing the easternmost outcome for this system.  More than likely this runs up the coast and comes in a bit further west.  Angle of approach is going to be important.

Euro is  certainly  interesting  for coastal virginia assuming it  doesnt  keep shifting east. a  30 mile west adjustment and the  cane season will end with a  bang.

[Superstorm93]

Well, the COAMPS getting nuts again. Ironically, this is the only model that captured the current structure of the storm as it emerged from Venezuela

 

 

[MANDA]

At this point I'm about ready to dismiss a landfall any further west than the eastern FL Panhandle.  I"m riding the EURO train here.  It does fairly well in situations like this.  I'd feel better if we had a well developed TD or TS rather than expected genesis.  If the EURO does something like this track again tonight and again tomorrow I'd say we are coming to a believable solution.  For what it is worth WPC keeps all moisture out of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next 7 days and implied beyond that.  Still not at a final solution yet but I think the western ones should start to be thought of as outliers.

[DenvilleCyclone]

Here's my deal, son's baseball tournament on Sept. 29th-Oct. 3rd in Fort Myers and family vacation in Cancun Oct. 16th.  Don't want to travel to Fort Myers with the chance of the tournament being cancelled completely or Cancun get decimated two weeks before a family vacation.  Hoping the storm doesn't develop at all and spare not only my plans but all those in the threat zone. 

[MJO812]

Very interesting 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very interesting 

Gotta get something to capture this thing and pull her back in some as she gains latitude. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta get something to capture this thing and pull her back in some as she gains latitude. 

Euro tries to do that. 

[GreekWeatherGod95]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro tries to do that. 

Euro giving us some hope here on Long Island 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro tries to do that. 

 

1 minute ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said:

Euro giving us some hope here on Long Island 

Ya let’s hope it continues with that as this thing starts to form…? 

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro puts the entire east coast on watch… interesting 

[jrips27]

Clear trends east this afternoon. 
 

My cruise that’s supposed to be at Royal Caribbean’s private island in the northern Bahamas on the 28th is looking dicier by the hour This looks fun 

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very interesting 

 What a concentration over and just SE of S FL on the 12Z EPS! Note that those that cross S FL pretty much don't get further west than 84W in the NW Caribbean. Those that miss FL to the SE don't get past about 81W in the NW Carib.

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very interesting 

Shift this ensemble package west by 100 to 150 miles and you've got a big rainmaker in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  I think an eastern FL Panhandle potential is still in play but have to watch next 2-4 12Z and 00Z cycles for a shift either west or east.  I believe western FL Panhandle on westward and Yucatan landfalls are outlier options at this point.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’d say GFS is on an island at this point. 
From what I’m seeing:

1) Western track would be slower moving and likely a weaker system at landfall 

2) eastern track crosses big part of Cuba and doesn’t have much time to strengthen before hitting Florida, but is a strengthening system on approach and then opens the door for east coast action

3) something between these 2 would probably yield the strongest landfall impact further up the Florida peninsula and would then be a potential serious inland flooding threat with trough interaction and overrunning.

Fun times ahead tracking. These are all very presumptuous based on model runs without an actual system but hey, these 3 scenarios look plausible  depending on which one the system takes 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro tries to do that. 

I've heard that the state did not bury the powerlines when they forced LILCO into bankruptcy to seize control of the utility.  Cat 1 Hurricane Belle in 1976, I thought it was an adventure, Mom having to throw all the food out in the fridge, not so much.  Would you road trip to, say, the Hamptons, to catch the eye?

[TPAwx]

Wanting a TC or post tropical system with massive accumulated energy to visit YBY is a bit like the dog catching the car, FAFO, etc.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

Another thing to consider, the vorticity is consolidating just east of the ABC islands....which is west of the Euro's consolidation.  In short: SE and SW FL looking like they are in trouble.  I'm fairly confident that GFS solutions won't verify now.

Sonething west of the 12z op Euro and east of the 12z op GFS seems like the reasonable play at this point.

Since there has been so much discussion about the incoming trough, I think it was DT who had an old school rule that a hurricane will begin to feel the effects of a trough when the base of the trough gets within 10 degrees latitude of the system.  Can anyone back this up?  

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Wanting a TC or post tropical system with massive accumulated energy to visit YBY is a bit like the dog catching the car, FAFO, etc.  

I'm pretty sure at least 90% of the board wants a big hit on the Tampa area.

[bdgwx]

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

 The UKMET is almost always very conservative on forecasted storm strength especially during the early stages. This run actually never has it stronger than a TS and it's near its strongest during hours 132-168 of this run. So far, it hasn't had it stronger than 992 mb on any run. So, I consider the UKMET track much more informative than the intensity in most cases including now.

[bdgwx]

Several of the UKMET ensemble members push AL98 into the Yucatan and enter into the western GOM.

 

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET is almost always very conservative on forecasted storm strength especially during the early stages. This run actually never has it stronger than a TS and it's near its strongest during hours 132-168 of this run. So far, it hasn't has it stronger than 992 mb on any run. So, I consider the UKMET track much more informative than the intensity in most cases including now.

Wasn’t the Ukie the one that nailed the Irma track?

[Superstorm93]

11 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

 

UKMET has been strangely conservative in the tropics over the last year or so. Not sure if they changed something with the model...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro tries to do that. 

There's a leftover trough that tries to do it but not strong enough. 

Another option is it gets blocked by the high building over it as it moves NE. 

Should be an interesting few days to say the least 

[Rmine1]

1 hour ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said:

Euro giving us some hope here on Long Island 

Hope for what? Rain, sure

[Amped]

GFS is the furthest west of any model so it''s probably wrong.

One reason is it might be having some convective feedback issues in the 42-96hr time frame.   Convective blobs appear to reform the center further west several times in this timeframe.

[BlizzardNole]

GFS has it bearing down on Pensacola next Sat while Euro has it in Sydney, NS.  Wild

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

GFS has it bearing down on Pensacola next Sat while Euro has it in Sydney, NS.  Wild

And of course at this point there is still the possibility of a track west of Pensacola and east of Sydney.

 

[Normandy]

Lets see what the GFS says.  I am predicting a massive cave to the Euro with landfall on the FL peninsula.