Hurricane Ian

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Op 6Z GFS landfall between Cameron and Intercoastal City not supported by ensembles.  GEFS are mainly NOLA to Florida Big Bend.

[bdgwx]

0Z UKMET crosses the far western tip of Cuba and enters the eastern GOM. By hour 168 it is moving due north. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Op 6Z GFS landfall between Cameron and Intercoastal City not supported by ensembles.  GEFS are mainly NOLA to Florida Big Bend.

The mean is Mobile after a landfall in Cancun

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Per CIMMS, half the LL vorticity is over land.  Plus the N shear, almost 30 knots.  I think Dr. Cowan is right, won't do much next 2-3 days.  He also suggested, because of the shear, if the system somehow strengthens, it will tend to stay further S next 3 days.  Or stronger is farther S, not the usual stronger storms go N and E.

 

The 70% 2 day should be reduced, but I can see how NHC would think that is sending a mixed message on what probably is a US threat.

[cptcatz]

06z Euro stronger and a tad to the northeast vs 00z. Ends at 990 mb just west of Jamaica. 

[GaWx]

 The 6Z EPS mean at 144 looks to me like it shifted slightly NE of the 0Z EPS at 150.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z EPS mean at 144 looks to me like it shifted slightly NE of the 0Z EPS at 150.

Yep looks like a Florida hit incoming 

[jconsor]

 

[CIK62]

Somewhere between Yucatan and western Cuba as entry point to the GOM.

[MattPetrulli]

FWIW a decent bit of GEFS members into the Bay of Campeche

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yep looks like a Florida hit incoming 

 Here's how I see it. Late Sept climo does not favor the good number of EPS members going NE across the S half of FL. That's more like mid Oct and later climo. But there's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster EPS members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA and probably at a slower speed.

[jrips27]

 

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here's how I see it. Late Sept climo does not favor the good number of EPS members going NE across the S half of FL. That's more like mid Oct and later climo. But there's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster EPS members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA and probably at a slower speed.

Thinking your second scenario is more likely.

[Weather Mike]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here's how I see it. Late Sept climo does not favor the good number of EPS members going NE across the S half of FL. That's more like mid Oct and later climo. But there's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster EPS members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA and probably at a slower speed.

great point ! 

[CampergirlFL]

 Here's how I see it. Late Sept climo does not favor the good number of EPS members going NE across the S half of FL. That's more like mid Oct and later climo. But there's an Octoberlike upper trough coming into the E US days 4-6 before lifting out. Notice that the faster EPS members are mainly the ones that turn NE across S FL. So, it appears that a big key will be speed of 98L. If it goes faster, it will have a better chance to get caught by the upper trough and move NE over the S half of FL. But, if not fast enough, it very likely won't and would instead likely hit the N Gulf coast anywhere from the FL Big Bend westward to LA and probably at a slower speed.

Charley said hold my beer climo in August 2004


.

[cptcatz]

12z Icon making a sharp northeast curve and goes right through Miami/Broward County. Will be very interesting to see if the 12z GFS follows suit.

Edit: 66 hours in and GFS is also way more northeast than the last runs.

[beanskip]

Lol, the ever-consistent ICON makes a tiny little shift vs. prior run -- from Yucatan to .... Key West!

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z

[TradeWinds]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z

Noticeable change N and E thru 60

[Eskimo Joe]

FYI, NHC mentioned last night that recon data on 98L is getting ingested into NWP now. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is already developing the cyclone just south of Jamaica.  Meanwhile, the GFS has the energy spread out all over and doesn't develop til it gets to the far nw Caribbean.

[NavarreDon]

.

[Weather Mike]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FYI, NHC mentioned last night that recon data on 98L is getting ingested into NWP now. 

12Z CMC and ICON look very similar 

[beanskip]

This "stall in the gulf" thing seems like a thing. I remember the models picking up on that pretty early with Matthew. Bears watching. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET is fairly similar to its 0Z run with it moving due north along the 85W longitude at 144 with a most likely later hit per extrapolation on or near the FL Big Bend:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.5N  75.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 25.09.2022   60  15.5N  75.0W     1006            29
    1200UTC 25.09.2022   72  16.5N  77.6W     1004            30
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   84  18.7N  79.7W     1002            38
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   96  20.7N  81.4W     1000            40
    0000UTC 27.09.2022  108  23.0N  83.2W      998            34
    1200UTC 27.09.2022  120  24.2N  84.2W      996            44
    0000UTC 28.09.2022  132  25.2N  84.9W      995            47
    1200UTC 28.09.2022  144  26.3N  85.0W      997            50
 

[Seminole]

A ton of upwelling will be going on if the GFS is correct. Upwelling along with the cooler N. GOM water will keep intensity from going off the chain.    

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

A ton of upwelling will be going on if the GFS is correct. Upwelling along with the cooler N. GOM water will keep intensity from going off the chain.    

The GFS is correcting towards the other models. I expect more east shifts 

I think we'll see a sharper turn NE in to SW FL. That's a strong trough in the east. 

[StantonParkHoya]

25 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

12Z CMC and ICON look very similar 

CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.

Still a long ways to go with this and final outcome is days away.  Just as an aside though.  IF the CMC is correct with temperatures in the 50's in parts of SC it could make for an interesting overrunning situation for parts of the SE and POSSIBLY Mid-Atlantic as warm, very moist tropical air gets lifted over the cooler air mass.  Big high to the north with vast onshore flow so not out of the question that an excessive rain event develops somewhere along or east of the mountains depending on eventual track.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Still a long ways to go with this and final outcome is days away.  Just as an aside though.  IF the CMC is correct with temperatures in the 50's in parts of SC it could make for an interesting overrunning situation for parts of the SE and POSSIBLY Mid-Atlantic as warm, very moist tropical air gets lifted over the cooler air mass.  Big high to the north with vast onshore flow so not out of the question that an excessive rain event develops somewhere along or east of the mountains depending on eventual track.

Absolutely. A stalled out front and a slow moving cyclone, with already signs of a PRE showing up on the models is a little concerning.