Hurricane Ian

[NavarreDon]

Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.

[Prospero]

10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...

It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.

A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.

Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

 

[NavarreDon]

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...
It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.
A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.
Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.
 

Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it.


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[Prospero]

32 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it.

As long as you are not all camped on the Alafia River you should be OK. Batteries are always a good thing to have in Florida any time of the year.

It has been pretty awesome lately, blue skies and white clouds, very little haze. Feels like Fall.

[CampergirlFL]

10 days with no power post Irma. We are prepared but I’d rather not..


.

[Prospero]

9 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

10 days with no power post Irma. We are prepared but I’d rather not..


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The novelty wears away quickly soon as all the ice melts and you can't find it within 30 miles or so. Battery operated fans are a blessing. A tank of gas in the cars is good to be able to charge devices. But living without electricity sucks. We are spoiled indeed!

 

[TPAwx]

34 minutes ago, Prospero said:

As long as you are not all camped on the Alafia River you should be OK. Batteries are always a good thing to have in Florida any time of the year.

It has been pretty awesome lately, blue skies and white clouds, very little haze. Feels like Fall.

Yeah nothing says Fall like a 101 heat index 

[Prospero]

Just now, TPAwx said:

Yeah nothing says Fall like a 101 heat index 

But it is a drier heat...

LOL

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, Prospero said:

But it is a drier heat...

LOL

 

So is fire.

[Prismshine Productions]

To get things back on topic... Only one dropsconde had a wind shift (NE instead of southeast/ESE) otherwise a whole lot of nothing

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[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...

It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.

A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.

Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

 

Nothing in the modelling suggests Texas and in ~150 years, 2 hurricanes, Jerry was a sheared 65 knot Cat 1, 1949 was a cat 2.  Maybe its a 50 year return and this is the year, but I don't think so.  Spaghetti instead of means, 98L muddles the mean trough, but it is fairly clear in the spaghetti.

[Windspeed]

To get things back on topic... Only one dropsconde had a wind shift (NE instead of southeast/ESE) otherwise a whole lot of nothing

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Yeah ultimately though the low level wave is there and has tilted/folded north, this thing needs convection. That may not come until tomorrow though.

[SI Mailman]

I’m in Aruba until Saturday afternoon. Expecting some impacts down here from 98L tomorrow night

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

55 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

To get things back on topic... Only one dropsconde had a wind shift (NE instead of southeast/ESE) otherwise a whole lot of nothing

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Yeah ultimately though the low level wave is there and has tilted/folded north, this thing needs convection. That may not come until tomorrow though.

Dr. Cowan's video is more like this weekend when shear from the N abates.  NHC 5 day probs are reasonable, but this should be a low 2 day orange.  My amateur opinion.

[CamSE-Wx]

[csnavywx]

This is going pretty much how I expected. Careful with that ASCAT data though, the mid-level circulation is likely displaced south of the actual max low level curvature. 

When the steering vector gets more aligned with the shear vector in about 48-60 hr, it might be able to sneak some development in as shear drops below 20kt. Has to get through some rather brutal 35kt shear tomorrow though.

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

I live in Orange Beach, AL so I guess I'm tuned into this thing. I'm a NJ guy though and whenever models showed big nor Easters up there ten days out it never happens so I'll be leaning on that here. I don't expect it to end up anywhere near here as it ain't gonna have an identical track ten straight days in a row on the models 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS slams LA!
0Z UKMET at 144 is in SE GOM moving NNW after NW just before:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L        ANALYSED POSITION :  9.8N  64.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 22.09.2022    0   9.8N  64.4W     1007            23
    1200UTC 22.09.2022   12  11.2N  64.3W     1008            29
    0000UTC 23.09.2022   24  12.5N  66.4W     1007            30
    1200UTC 23.09.2022   36  13.9N  68.7W     1007            30
    0000UTC 24.09.2022   48  14.5N  70.5W     1006            28
    1200UTC 24.09.2022   60  14.8N  72.9W     1005            33
    0000UTC 25.09.2022   72  15.1N  75.2W     1003            32
    1200UTC 25.09.2022   84  16.3N  77.6W     1000            36
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   96  18.1N  79.5W      997            41
    1200UTC 26.09.2022  108  20.3N  81.6W      993            42
    0000UTC 27.09.2022  120  21.7N  83.2W      992            42
    1200UTC 27.09.2022  132  22.9N  84.4W      994            46
    0000UTC 28.09.2022  144  24.0N  85.1W      992            51

 

[Prismshine Productions]

0Z UKMET at 144 is in SE GOM moving NNW after NW just before:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L        ANALYSED POSITION :  9.8N  64.4W    ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022                       LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND     VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)     --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------   0000UTC 22.09.2022    0   9.8N  64.4W     1007            23   1200UTC 22.09.2022   12  11.2N  64.3W     1008            29   0000UTC 23.09.2022   24  12.5N  66.4W     1007            30   1200UTC 23.09.2022   36  13.9N  68.7W     1007            30   0000UTC 24.09.2022   48  14.5N  70.5W     1006            28   1200UTC 24.09.2022   60  14.8N  72.9W     1005            33   0000UTC 25.09.2022   72  15.1N  75.2W     1003            32   1200UTC 25.09.2022   84  16.3N  77.6W     1000            36   0000UTC 26.09.2022   96  18.1N  79.5W      997            41   1200UTC 26.09.2022  108  20.3N  81.6W      993            42   0000UTC 27.09.2022  120  21.7N  83.2W      992            42   1200UTC 27.09.2022  132  22.9N  84.4W      994            46   0000UTC 28.09.2022  144  24.0N  85.1W      992            51

 

GFS remains the outlier then

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[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

GFS remains the outlier then

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It is to a large extent although the 0Z ICON, which doesn't go past 180 hours, was then moving WNW just NW of the NW corner of the Yucatan headed for the western Gulf. Also, the 0Z UKMET though in the SE GOM moving NNW was over 200 miles west of its prior run along with the US E coast H5 trough pulling out.

[GaWx]

 Regarding TCs that were born in the Caribbean during 9/21-30 1851-2015, climo says Gulf LA eastward to FL is easily the most likely destination although a pretty good number also go WNW into MX after either crossing the Yucatan or going just N of it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/sep_21_30.png

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS mean is the furthest west of any recent run.

[GaWx]

0Z Euro is west of the last two runs. 
 0Z EPS mean seems to be similar to the 12Z. The spread seems a bit tighter (fewer extremes like Yucatan and Bahamas).

[cptcatz]

Regardless of where this goes, all models are showing this to be an enormous storm. The surge could be historic and possibly worse than Katrina, especially if it stalls in the gulf as the GFS is showing. 

[hawkeye_wx]

A notable change from the Euro this run is the eastern US trough.  It does not dig as far south as previous runs, so it's more like the other models now in that regard.  As someone posted yesterday, that trough will be pulling a bunch of dry air down into the southeast US and Gulf of Mexico.  This run of the Euro gets farther north before landfall and, over the last 18 hours before landfall, has the storm rapidly weakening from 939 mb to 970 mb because of increasing shear and a big gulp of dry air.  

[nwohweather]

A notable change from the Euro this run is the eastern US trough.  It does not dig as far south as previous runs, so it's more like the other models now in that regard.  As someone posted yesterday, that trough will be pulling a bunch of dry air down into the southeast US and Gulf of Mexico.  This run of the Euro gets farther north before landfall and, over the last 18 hours before landfall, has the storm rapidly weakening from 939 mb to 970 mb because of increasing shear and a big gulp of dry air.  

It’d be on brand for 2022 lol! We’ll see our first lows in the 50s here tomorrow night since April in Charleston so the cool, dry air is beginning to make to the coast again. Definitely something any potential system may have to deal with

[Intensewind002]

27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A notable change from the Euro this run is the eastern US trough.  It does not dig as far south as previous runs, so it's more like the other models now in that regard.  As someone posted yesterday, that trough will be pulling a bunch of dry air down into the southeast US and Gulf of Mexico.  This run of the Euro gets farther north before landfall and, over the last 18 hours before landfall, has the storm rapidly weakening from 939 mb to 970 mb because of increasing shear and a big gulp of dry air.  

Hurricane Lili might be a decent analog for this storm

[Weather Mike]

49 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Hurricane Lili might be a decent analog for this storm

Possible but Euro still says no I am coming on shore just north of Tampa. 

Will have to see what unfolds 

[olafminesaw]

Models starting to tighten up on a LA to FL landfall. Actually pretty good agreement at this range

[TPAwx]

17 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Possible but Euro still says no I am coming on shore just north of Tampa. 

Will have to see what unfolds 

More like 100 miles N around Cedar Key but it’s just one of many TBD op run track simulations