Scott747 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 Location: 13.9°N 68.6°W Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 35 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 And here we go...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The 6Z EPS mean at 144 is a little stronger than the 0Z EPS at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 6Z EPS mean at 144 is a little stronger than the 0Z EPS at 150. Placement the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Massive spread on the 6z EPS. May come down to just how quickly this can organize over the next 72 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 This one is definitely interesting. Beat me to posting the EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, shaggy said: Placement the same? As Superstorm's map shows, the spread is a little wider. The mean is a little further south in the W Caribbean due to a higher number of members in the SW Carib on the 6Z 144 (10) vs 0Z 150 (5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: As Superstorm's map shows, the spread is a little wider. The mean is a little further south in the W Caribbean due to a higher number of members in the SW Carib on the 6Z 144 (10) vs 0Z 150 (5). Looks like many members into the Yucatán Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Who said @MJO812's season is over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 End of the EPS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 48 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Massive spread on the 6z EPS. May come down to just how quickly this can organize over the next 72 hours. Seems euro has been too far west all season and is always correcting back east to align with the GFS. If that's the case here, looking like the eastern Gulf Coast or Florida peninsula would be the target zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Off to the races today. 000 ABNT20 KNHC 201453 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Central Tropical Atlantic: Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 From a lemon to a cherry at warp speed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 GFS at 186. 940mb over western Cuba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm Good observation, for example on 12z GFS the wind field is absolutely massive. This has been a consistent trend in modeling too, hasn't really been showing a small storm when it bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Crushes the FL panhandle this GFS run-but it's fantasy land range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 One of the most threatening storms from a model perspective I can remember in the last five or ten years. Models forecasting a large and extremely intense recurving hurricane that would bring monster winds hundreds of miles inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Crushes the FL panhandle this GFS run-but it's fantasy land range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Getting closer to “Hurricane Phoenix” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 TS force winds all the way up to Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Just wait until the Euro runs at 2PM 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Needless to say, this one might be a season headliner. The model support is clearly there and it blows up in a climo-favored region. Watch out. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 12z Euro about to tip-off shortly. I’ll try to post some paid maps since TT is having some issues it seems. I’m on a cruise from Port Canaveral to the northern coast of Haiti and then the Bahamas this coming Saturday - Thursday. So of course this is the biggest threat of the year 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 another site getting overloaded.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Normandy said: One of the most threatening storms from a model perspective I can remember in the last five or ten years. Models forecasting a large and extremely intense recurving hurricane that would bring monster winds hundreds of miles inland. Sorry to get off topic but I don't think anything will ever beat Irma from that perspective. That was consistent model runs for like a week all showing ~880 mb landfalls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Over here using StormVista like its 2007 for the Euro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The number one target of the 12Z GEFS members is the Gulf coast of FL. This includes quite a few MH hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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