2022-23 Winter Outlook

[WEATHER53]

December : +1

January:-3 to -5

Feb: +1

Overall: -0.33 to -1

Snowfall for DCA  BWI  IAD 14-18”

 

The primary analog years are 1986, 2002, 2013, 2021.

The secondary are 1966, 1977,1983, 2008, 2018’.

 Our analog method is mostly occurrent weather from this year.  How we apply that formula is hard to explain 

There are some good years there. I do think chance  of a big 8”+ is higher this year at about 30% instead of 15%.

I hope Isotherm and Raleigh , Ma*t, Ray,HM and others will post their outlook in this thread 

 

[Daniel Boone]

Looks good Howard. I think this Winter has a decent shot at being colder and snowier than last. PDO Looking better, NAtl SST profile should improve. Nina should weaken as Winter progresses.

     Oh .. let's not forget Jack's "cold pool".

[mattie g]

January at -3 to -5 is pretty bold, but if that's what your analogs are saying, then best of luck on it!

14-18" of snow is a little below normal for most, but not terribly much so. Wouldn't be a great season by any stretch, but certainly not a complete dud.

[RIC_WX]

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook.

I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather.  Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts.

I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals?  A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook.

I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather.  Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts.

I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals?  A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

But just because a month is a degree above normal doesn't necessarily mean that the whole month will be above normal. Perhaps the first half of the month is slightly above normal, but the second is below. For December, that could absolutely work for us, and it wouldn't go that far against the general consensus forecasts at this time.

A -3 to -5 month would suggest cold throughout, so I agree that suppression would be a legitimate concern in a January with that kind of cold.

How I read this forecast is a milder than normal beginning of December, with it then going cold for the second half. January would remain quite cold (and possibly dry) throughout the month, with February starting cold. As the pattern relaxes in the beginning of February, we get legitimate snow chances as February "milds up." We could flip to colder than normal in March with a couple shots at snow until climo rules us out of the game.

Of course, this is me projecting, but I could see how a forecast like this could play out in the manner I'm suggesting.

[WEATHER53]

+1 Dec and especially Feb is not devastating warmth. When we go +3 and milder then it’s generally snowless 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook.

I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather.  Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts.

I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals?  A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

Lot of temp outcomes 2002 to this analog season matched closely 

[Eskimo Joe]

Not great, but not terrible. Give us cold temps and I'll take my chances.

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not great, but not terrible. Give us cold temps and I'll take my chances.

Cold Temps at least give ya a chance for a wintery scene!

[RIC_WX]

15 hours ago, mattie g said:

But just because a month is a degree above normal doesn't necessarily mean that the whole month will be above normal. Perhaps the first half of the month is slightly above normal, but the second is below. For December, that could absolutely work for us, and it wouldn't go that far against the general consensus forecasts at this time.

 

My POV is that a slightly AN February is far more likely to produce snow than a slightly BN December.  
 

Nina climo here strongly suggests a cold/dry warm/wet coupling.  It’s been pretty tough to get snow in December regardless the past decade or so.  2010 is maybe the best example I can remember that would work everything out and is a year some have mentioned but was not referenced in this particular outlook.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Cold Temps at least give ya a chance for a wintery scene!

Exactly!

[Stormfly]

May the torch be with you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:06 PM, WEATHER53 said:

December : +1

January:-3 to -5

Feb: +1

Overall: -0.33 to -1

Snowfall for DCA  BWI  IAD 14-18”

 

The primary analog years are 1986, 2002, 2013, 2021.

The secondary are 1966, 1977,1983, 2008, 2018’.

 Our analog method is mostly occurrent weather from this year.  How we apply that formula is hard to explain 

There are some good years there. I do think chance  of a big 8”+ is higher this year at about 30% instead of 15%.

I hope Isotherm and Raleigh , Ma*t, Ray,HM and others will post their outlook in this thread 

 

I can't believe that I missed this. Same page for the most part, as far as this potentially not looking like a typical la nina.

Any thoughts on March?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:20 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Looks good Howard. I think this Winter has a decent shot at being colder and snowier than last. PDO Looking better, NAtl SST profile should improve. Nina should weaken as Winter progresses.

     Oh .. let's not forget Jack's "cold pool".

Good 'ole "Jack O" from Eastern and founder of StormVista....RIP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/15/2022 at 3:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Lot of temp outcomes 2002 to this analog season matched closely 

Funny you mention 2002 because I have been feeling like it would be more of an interior season up here in terms of snowfall, which January 2003 def was before PD II. January 1987 was like that, too.

[WEATHER53]

On 9/20/2022 at 10:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't believe that I missed this. Same page for the most part, as far as this potentially not looking like a typical la nina.

Any thoughts on March?

Go ahead and post your outlook please 

i think we see an outcome not typical of most Nina’s.  The issue for DC area is will cold air source be available.  Monster low pressures nw pacific coast and nw of that can’t be frequent .  Many of the other indexes that are offered still seem largely theoretical with no history of being determinant on   outcome 

[WEATHER53]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:06 PM, WEATHER53 said:

December : +1

January:-3 to -5

Feb: +1

Overall: -0.33 to -1

Snowfall for DCA  BWI  IAD 14-18”

 

The primary analog years are 1986, 2002, 2013, 2021.

The secondary are 1966, 1977,1983, 2008, 2018’.

 Our analog method is mostly occurrent weather from this year.  How we apply that formula is hard to explain 

There are some good years there. I do think chance  of a big 8”+ is higher this year at about 30% instead of 15%.

I hope Isotherm and Raleigh , Ma*t, Ray,HM and others will post their outlook in this thread 

 

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this.

I continue to increase in encouragement.

Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold”  I mentioned there are some Big years  in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nice write up.

Give us precip and I’ll take my chances 

[IUsedToHateCold]

18 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this.

I continue to increase in encouragement.

Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold”  I mentioned there are some Big years  in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook 

 

 

 

I think I’m more willing to attribute this anomalous October weather to the volcano. It would have been nice to see this in January, but I don’t think it’s happening. The -NAO/+PNA pattern is not going to stick around, and when it goes we torch. Chances of that happening in winter go up each day we don’t flip. I think if we could get that flip to happen in the next couple of weeks we could have the type of January you are talking about, but the window is closing fast. 

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I think I’m more willing to attribute this anomalous October weather to the volcano. It would have been nice to see this in January, but I don’t think it’s happening. The -NAO/+PNA pattern is not going to stick around, and when it goes we torch. Chances of that happening in winter go up each day we don’t flip. I think if we could get that flip to happen in the next couple of weeks we could have the type of January you are talking about, but the window is closing fast. 

Some of the greatest harsh Winters of old had early cold. A break late October/early Nov, then pretty much wall to wall cold until Feb. or March.

      Granted, recent years (20-30) have been different of which many, being the younger generation are going by. 

      

[IUsedToHateCold]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Some of the greatest harsh Winters of old had early cold. A break late October/early Nov, then pretty much wall to wall cold until Feb. or March.

      Granted, recent years (20-30) have been different of which many, being the younger generation are going by. 

      

About the closest to wall-to-wall cold I’ve ever seen was growing up in Massachusetts in the late 80s/early 90s. I haven’t seen it in Maryland since I moved here in 2011. 

[WEATHER53]

To me the debate has not been clearly resolved as to does the weather cause indexes or do  the indexes cause weather?

I think this winter is going to be counter to what the indexes are indicating.

I think it’s a battle between what indexes are indicating versus what analogs are foretelling. 

 

[thunderbolt]

18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

To me the debate has not been clearly resolved as to does the weather cause indexes or do  the indexes cause weather?

I think this winter is going to be counter to what the indexes are indicating.

I think it’s a battle between what indexes are indicating versus what analogs are foretelling. 

 

Chicken or the egg?

[mattie g]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:37 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this.

I continue to increase in encouragement.

Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold”  I mentioned there are some Big years  in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook 

I like your confidence in what would be a decent winter around these parts. Not a great one, but certainly more interesting (particularly with the cold) than anything we've had (at least IMBY) recently.

[WEATHER53]

Hey Ray what you say?

Matt-where you at?

isotherm-dont make me squirm 

HM-say again!

Raleigh-whats the word by golly?

 

[Deck Pic]

On 11/21/2022 at 3:54 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Hey Ray what you say?

Matt-where you at?

isotherm-dont make ne squirm 

HM-say again!

Raleigh-whats the word by golly?

 

Good forecast. I think warmer with less snow but we agree on the idea that January will be the “cold” month. 

[WEATHER53]

On 11/28/2022 at 4:43 PM, Deck Pic said:

Good forecast. I think warmer with less snow but we agree on the idea that January will be the “cold” month. 

Yeah and I think Ray is kinda in between us. 

[Jebman]

I have been saying this for a while now, that the Mid Atlantic will have a frigid, snowy winter.

Who is still not a Believer?

[nw baltimore wx]

15 hours ago, Jebman said:

I have been saying this for a while now, that the Mid Atlantic will have a frigid, snowy winter.

Who is still not a Believer?

[WEATHER53]

On 9/20/2022 at 1:15 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Go ahead and post your outlook please 

i think we see an outcome not typical of most Nina’s.  The issue for DC area is will cold air source be available.  Monster low pressures nw pacific coast and nw of that can’t be frequent .  Many of the other indexes that are offered still seem largely theoretical with no history of being determinant on   outcome 

Wrote that this would not be a traditional  Nina like outcome in late September. Many comments over month of December have stated or confirmed same .