Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[hardypalmguy]

19 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Who will be the last to see a freeze in this sub-forum?  Not sure who is still in the running but I know ALEK and myself are.  Not even a frost yet at my place.  Anyone else still waiting on their first frost/freeze?

no freeze yet for me.

[Chicago Storm]

On 10/31/2022 at 6:27 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Haven't had a chance to put anything out regarding the upcoming period until now, but we are definitely seeing the most volatile weather pattern we have seen in many months coming up for the first half of November (And likely beyond), in part thanks to the MJO still rolling along and the PV on the move.

The upcoming first 1/3rd of November, as everyone can see, will start off mild sub-forum wide. This is due to the continued -PNA, favoring Western US troughing through the period...Combined with little to no upstream blocking (+NAO). This pattern is fairly consistent with the progression of the MJO we have been seeing. This will lead to a fairly mild opening 8 days of the month across pretty much the entire sub-forum. Later in this opening 1/3rd of the month, things will trend cooler across northern portions of the sub-forum...Which is also when our members up in Duluth and Bo-land will see increasing chances for synoptic snows. This alteration of things will be due to larger scale changes, as the pattern will continue evolving with time as we eventually head into the middle 1/3rd of November. But more on that at a later time...

That later time has come.

The pattern has continued to evolve, and as such, will bring the most widespread/consident and coldest temperatures of the season to the region for the upcoming middle 1/3rd of November. Additonally, we could potentially see a synoptic snow opportunity or two across the region... However, with such a volatile pattern and a ton of moving pieces, it isn't guranteed. Nonetheless, the upcoming pattern is in large part being forced by the continued movement of the MJO through phases 7-8-COD and movement/streching of the SPV. The middle 1/3rd of November will predominately feature conistent/deep troughing from Canada down through the heart of the CONUS, allowing for the aforementioned colder temperatures to take up residence across much of the region for this period. Additionally, while a -EPO (GOA ridging) will be in place for this period, the setup will be favorable for waves to break through the ridge and top the ridge, eventually making it down into SW Canada and the Western US. This is where storm system opportunity could possibly arise for the region, but again...it's not a given, due to the deep mean trough across Canada/CONUS.

Moving forward into the last 1/3rd in November, it will be interesting to watch how things evolve. The MJO will is projected to propogate from the COD and back into phases 5-6. This would support a return to more mild conditions. However, there is also support for continued movement/alteration of the SPV, which could potentially take up residence in Northern Canada by the end of the middle 1/3rd of Nov/early last 1/3rd of November. That could potentially combat things. More on the final 1/3rd of November eventually...

[hardypalmguy]

As long as it's hot Christmas week in Tampa.  Gonna be playing in the sand.

[Malacka11]

It would be cool if we could eek out at least a fun model watching sesh for mid next week

[A-L-E-K]

first DAB?

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

It would be cool if we could eek out at least a fun model watching sesh for mid next week

The 12z GFS will have to do.

[Malacka11]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 12z GFS will have to do.

I'd take a nice prolonged 1-3" in a heartbeat especially if it sticks around for the duration of the cold. 

[Chicago Storm]

On 11/8/2022 at 11:09 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Moving forward into the last 1/3rd in November, it will be interesting to watch how things evolve. The MJO will is projected to propogate from the COD and back into phases 5-6. This would support a return to more mild conditions. However, there is also support for continued movement/alteration of the SPV, which could potentially take up residence in Northern Canada by the end of the middle 1/3rd of Nov/early last 1/3rd of November. That could potentially combat things. More on the final 1/3rd of November eventually...

As alluded to in my previous post, the final 1/3rd of November looks interesting to watch regarding how things evolve as a whole. We will see the current -EPO and NAO/AO flux pattern that is bringing the more widespread snow chances and consistent cold break down.

The MJO is still expected to move through phases 5-6-7 to finish out the month, which would suggest a return to mild conditions. However, continued SPV relocation in the vicinity of portions of Northern Canada, Greenland and the Canadian Arctic suggests it likely shouldn't be wall to wall mild. This sort of pattern for the final 1/3rd of the month should continue to remain fairly active across the region and CONUS, with the potential for up/down mild/cool temperatures. While it's not a great snow pattern for a good portion of the sub-forum, I would watch the potential for a thread the needle type system during this period. Outside of that, the northern portion of the sub-forum will be most favored for any other snow chances.

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 thread da needle