Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

It's been a while since I've had a chance to throw out any thoughts regarding the medium/long range, but really there hasn't been anything that has significantly changed since my last post in the summer thread from mid-August. The pattern we have seen dominant much of the summer was expected to continue through the end of August, and it ended up doing so. For the first half of September, a variation of this same pattern has continued...Though with a bit more troughing along the West Coast at times and a few transient bouts of ridging up in the Greenland/North Pole area at times.

We are finally going to see a significant change coming up shortly, but it appears as though it will be short lived. As is being mentioned by many, we are looking at a warm up for late this week through the first half of next week across a good chunk of the sub-forum. This warm up will bring a re-introduction to temperatures into the 80's/90's for many for a several day period. This warm up will be a product of an increasing -PNA/West Coast trough, one of the most significant we have seen all summer. This will pump up ridging across the Central/Southern Plain, Ohio Valley and Southeast...Leading the the aforementioned period of warmer/hotter temps. Beyond this time (After mid-next week), like clock work it appears we'll head back into some variation of the dominant pattern we've seen much of the summer.

[Chicago Storm]

Summary regarding what to expect for the first 1/4 to 1/2 of October…




And




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[cyclone77]

November gonna be rockin'

[WaryWarren]

this subforum punts more often than the Iowa Hawkeyes. 

[Chicago Storm]

On 9/13/2022 at 8:28 PM, Chicago Storm said:

It's been a while since I've had a chance to throw out any thoughts regarding the medium/long range, but really there hasn't been anything that has significantly changed since my last post in the summer thread from mid-August. The pattern we have seen dominant much of the summer was expected to continue through the end of August, and it ended up doing so. For the first half of September, a variation of this same pattern has continued...Though with a bit more troughing along the West Coast at times and a few transient bouts of ridging up in the Greenland/North Pole area at times.

We are finally going to see a significant change coming up shortly, but it appears as though it will be short lived. As is being mentioned by many, we are looking at a warm up for late this week through the first half of next week across a good chunk of the sub-forum. This warm up will bring a re-introduction to temperatures into the 80's/90's for many for a several day period. This warm up will be a product of an increasing -PNA/West Coast trough, one of the most significant we have seen all summer. This will pump up ridging across the Central/Southern Plain, Ohio Valley and Southeast...Leading the the aforementioned period of warmer/hotter temps. Beyond this time (After mid-next week), like clock work it appears we'll head back into some variation of the dominant pattern we've seen much of the summer.

Everything has panned out pretty much as expected for mid to late Sept...With the heat wave in mid Sept, followed by a return to a similar pattern as to what has dominated much of the summer (Pictured below). Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.

 

[Hoosier]

Yeah, looks brutally boring for a while.

[Chicago Storm]

Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.

For the first 1/3rd of October (Through close to the 10th-ish), things look to remain as they generally have been. Feels like I've said this about 50 times over the past few months, but for this first chunk of October we will see a continuation of the general pattern we have seen dominate a good portion of the summer and the pattern we are currently in. The constant troughing centered around the Hudson/Greenland, which has been relentless, will continue to be the focus for weather in most of our sub-forum. All in all, this will lead to generally zzz and dry weather activity wise, and a fall-like temperature regime for the first 1/3rd of the month.
One wildcard to watch will be the potential for the splitting of the newly formed seasonal PV in the Arctic. The GEFS were showing this in the very extended, and as time goes on, they continue to latch onto this idea even more-so. That could alter things for the end of the first 1/3rd of the month and second 1/3rd of the month.

[Chicago Storm]

On 9/29/2022 at 9:16 PM, Chicago Storm said:

For the first 1/3rd of October (Through close to the 10th-ish), things look to remain as they generally have been. Feels like I've said this about 50 times over the past few months, but for this first chunk of October we will see a continuation of the general pattern we have seen dominate a good portion of the summer and the pattern we are currently in. The constant troughing centered around the Hudson/Greenland, which has been relentless, will continue to be the focus for weather in most of our sub-forum. All in all, this will lead to generally zzz and dry weather activity wise, and a fall-like temperature regime for the first 1/3rd of the month.
One wildcard to watch will be the potential for the splitting of the newly formed seasonal PV in the Arctic. The GEFS were showing this in the very extended, and as time goes on, they continue to latch onto this idea even more-so. That could alter things for the end of the first 1/3rd of the month and second 1/3rd of the month.
 

The first 1/3rd of this month has essentially panned out as expected.

Looking forward to the next 1/3rd of the the month (11-20th), we are going to see some changes on tap. For the first time in a while we will be seeing a formidable -NAO, from late this week through early next week. At the same time, we will be seeing a rex block take shape along the West coast the middle of this week, continuing into early next week. There will also be the re-introduction of Aleutian/GOA troughing, which had recently relaxed a bit. This will lock in a significant trough across the Hudson region, our sub-forum and the Northeast. In the wake of mild temps today-Wed and some rain chances Tue/Wed, this upcoming period looks chilly and dry overall. During this period we'll likely see several additional chances for frost/freeze conditions across the sub-forum, as well as the chance for some synoptic flakes across portions of the MW/GL.

[krfd]

Feels inappropriate to follow up Chicago Storm's excellent analysis with this model diarrhea. I present the 12z run of the 384hr gfs with an accum map that I hope doesn't portend the winter to come. 

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, krfd said:

Feels inappropriate to follow up Chicago Storm's excellent analysis with this model diarrhea. I present the 12z run of the 384hr gfs with an accum map that I hope doesn't portend the winter to come. 

Can we get that thing in the Ohio Valley to trend north?  

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

It's in the lol range but the GFS the last couple days has been hinting at a big system just before Halloween, would be fun to get a big october storm for once

[Hoosier]

14 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

It's in the lol range but the GFS the last couple days has been hinting at a big system just before Halloween, would be fun to get a big october storm for once

First things first, next weekend is looking quite mild.  Beyond that, we'll see if we can pull off an unseasonably early synoptic snowfall somewhere in the region.

[Hoosier]

What the hell is the 00z GFS doing around days 8-10+?  

It has a tropical system in the Pacific making landfall in Mexico, and the remnant vort survives into the Gulf of Mexico and heads toward Tampa.  That gets flung northwest to Lake Michigan courtesy of interaction with a deep trough, with rain changing to heavy snow on the southern flank.  

I'm not gonna say impossible, but boy would a lot have to go right.

[Hoosier]

 

[Chicago Storm]

What the hell is the 00z GFS doing around days 8-10+?  
It has a tropical system in the Pacific making landfall in Mexico, and the remnant vort survives into the Gulf of Mexico and heads toward Tampa.  That gets flung northwest to Lake Michigan courtesy of interaction with a deep trough, with rain changing to heavy snow on the southern flank.  
I'm not gonna say impossible, but boy would a lot have to go right.

GFS being the GFS.

A lot in flux though coming up for the final 1/3rd of the month and into early November, with the biggest pattern change we’ve seen since the spring and MJO moving as well.


.

[Baum]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:54 AM, Hoosier said:

First things first, next weekend is looking quite mild.  Beyond that, we'll see if we can pull off an unseasonably early synoptic snowfall somewhere in the region.

kiss of death for breaking the recent trends of a mild and dry Decembers 

[SchaumburgStormer]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

 

That's a rather improbable scoop and score for that trough. 

[Chicago Storm]

On 10/10/2022 at 6:42 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The first 1/3rd of this month has essentially panned out as expected.

Looking forward to the next 1/3rd of the the month (11-20th), we are going to see some changes on tap. For the first time in a while we will be seeing a formidable -NAO, from late this week through early next week. At the same time, we will be seeing a rex block take shape along the West coast the middle of this week, continuing into early next week. There will also be the re-introduction of Aleutian/GOA troughing, which had recently relaxed a bit. This will lock in a significant trough across the Hudson region, our sub-forum and the Northeast. In the wake of mild temps today-Wed and some rain chances Tue/Wed, this upcoming period looks chilly and dry overall. During this period we'll likely see several additional chances for frost/freeze conditions across the sub-forum, as well as the chance for some synoptic flakes across portions of the MW/GL.

The end of the month period is quickly approaching, and it will feature the most significant pattern change we have seen since the spring and an MJO helping to aide in the change, as it continue to progress through phases 5-7. 

The -NAO/pseudo West Coast rex block pattern/+PNA that has been in place for this middle 1/3rd of October will be breaking down, being replaced by significant and deep Western/Central US troughing for a good portion of the final 1/3rd of October, with increasing GOA/Aleutian troughing (+EPO/WPO) as well. This will all lead to the increasingly advertised bout of Indian Summer conditions, from late this week through very early next week. In addition to the period of mild temps, there could very well be some level of severe weather threat with the significant ejecting through the Central US on Sun/Mon (Pending instability/moisture return issues in the wake of the current trough). Beyond this things will be in flux a bit, with a secondary trough sliding into the west and then likely ejecting east through the Canadian Prairies and the Central US...But small differences could determine whether there's a second bout of Indian Summer conditions or more seasonal fall like conditions, with another associated storm system as well.

[hardypalmguy]

Bring on the torch.

[cyclone77]

12z Euro drops the surface low 19mb in 12hrs Friday afternoon/eve.  Pressure dips into the 960s as it enters Lake Superior.   Probably overdone but indicates we have a fairly dynamic storm system in play for late week, finally.

[Baum]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

12z Euro drops the surface low 19mb in 12hrs Friday afternoon/eve.  Pressure dips into the 960s as it enters Lake Superior.   Probably overdone but indicates we have a fairly dynamic storm system in play for late week, finally.

wreck of the hardy palm tree guy. Love that tune.

[Chicago Storm]

On 10/18/2022 at 3:36 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The end of the month period is quickly approaching, and it will feature the most significant pattern change we have seen since the spring and an MJO helping to aide in the change, as it continue to progress through phases 5-7. 

The -NAO/pseudo West Coast rex block pattern/+PNA that has been in place for this middle 1/3rd of October will be breaking down, being replaced by significant and deep Western/Central US troughing for a good portion of the final 1/3rd of October, with increasing GOA/Aleutian troughing (+EPO/WPO) as well. This will all lead to the increasingly advertised bout of Indian Summer conditions, from late this week through very early next week. In addition to the period of mild temps, there could very well be some level of severe weather threat with the significant ejecting through the Central US on Sun/Mon (Pending instability/moisture return issues in the wake of the current trough). Beyond this things will be in flux a bit, with a secondary trough sliding into the west and then likely ejecting east through the Canadian Prairies and the Central US...But small differences could determine whether there's a second bout of Indian Summer conditions or more seasonal fall like conditions, with another associated storm system as well.

Haven't had a chance to put anything out regarding the upcoming period until now, but we are definitely seeing the most volatile weather pattern we have seen in many months coming up for the first half of November (And likely beyond), in part thanks to the MJO still rolling along and the PV on the move.

The upcoming first 1/3rd of November, as everyone can see, will start off mild sub-forum wide. This is due to the continued -PNA, favoring Western US troughing through the period...Combined with little to no upstream blocking (+NAO). This pattern is fairly consistent with the progression of the MJO we have been seeing. This will lead to a fairly mild opening 8 days of the month across pretty much the entire sub-forum. Later in this opening 1/3rd of the month, things will trend cooler across northern portions of the sub-forum...Which is also when our members up in Duluth and Bo-land will see increasing chances for synoptic snows. This alteration of things will be due to larger scale changes, as the pattern will continue evolving with time as we eventually head into the middle 1/3rd of November. But more on that at a later time...

 

[Hoosier]

So you're telling me it's gonna cool off.

 

[RogueWaves]

ready 2 b froze

[A-L-E-K]

sigh, it's time i guess

[WestMichigan]

Who will be the last to see a freeze in this sub-forum?  Not sure who is still in the running but I know ALEK and myself are.  Not even a frost yet at my place.  Anyone else still waiting on their first frost/freeze?

[Hoosier]

That's a legit winter type airmass in the extended.

[Chicago Storm]

Cool/cold and dry… As bad as it gets.


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[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Cool/cold and dry… As bad as it gets.


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I'm putting all my faith in renegade light snow/flurries.

[mjwise]

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So you're telling me it's gonna cool off.

Yes.

 

Seems like there hasn't been a full latitude CONUS trough predicted for some time, complete with the hardly ever seen 90% Below contour. Point and click high for Sat and Sun is 33 here.